ACUS11 KWNS 240135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240135=20
TXZ000-240330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Areas affected...Permian Basin into Rolling Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 240135Z - 240330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and marginally severe winds could
occur through about midnight.

DISCUSSION...The most intense storms have generally trended downward
in the vicinity of Midland. KMAF radar imagery shows outflow
beginning to push away from this activity as well. Farther
northeast, low-level moisture is greater and storms have maintained
some intensity. Despite the onset of nocturnal cooling and
increasing MLCIN, the increase in the low-level jet noted on
regional VADs as well as modestly increasing mid-level ascent
suggests some activity will persist perhaps to around midnight local
time. Large hail will be possible with newer updrafts given the
moderate shear and mid-level lapse rates at or above 7 C/km (from
evening observed soundings). However, cores will likely collapse
quickly. Isolated strong to marginally severe winds are also
possible.

..Wendt/Hart.. 10/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65genlQmlQ9zgOMsyv5CXackTinVgQxSPTdjX7eJMLXV9rMGu4Uh1HSaTLvVxaMKvqvGnk-Cz= xmPcMOHebayAZyat-s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31650271 31970278 32210274 33230046 33499987 33599945
33299909 32859899 31810144 31470235 31650271=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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