ACUS11 KWNS 241605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241605=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-241830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...much of western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 241605Z - 241830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of large, damaging hail and eventually
damaging winds are likely to develop this afternoon from southwest
into much of western Texas.

DISCUSSION...Cooling aloft with a shortwave trough is already aiding
the development of thunderstorms containing hail over Far West TX
this morning. Substantial high clouds are currently limiting surface
heating over much of the region, but breaks in the clouds as well as
eventual boundary layer mixing with gusty south winds will
accelerate warming over the next several hours.

Surface analysis indicates the ongoing activity is just west of the
better low-level moisture where dewpoints are in the lower 60s F.
Despite the clouds and only modest surface warming, forecast
soundings indicate strong instability will develop as mid and upper
level lapse rates steepen. MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg is likely, with
greater values where heating is stronger.

Effective deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt as well as modest low-level
veering with height will favor supercells for a few hours, with
locally significant hail possible. A tornado or two is possible with
the stronger supercells that may develop, with sufficient effective
SRH increasing toward 200 m2/s2 by 00Z

..Jewell/Leitman.. 10/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-R-3aerofsoDxtwfSrBZ7YfQqM5ti1yN5qXiiyUa786ERt93AomZd2DqGr4EY2SXFNpQa9S9T= 8Ol4I71kCfNHeScnwQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 29850367 30360429 30730418 32220299 33160236 33900176
34550093 34650018 34129968 33109963 31330043 30080119
29810180 29850367=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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