ACUS11 KWNS 241955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241955=20
TXZ000-242230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628...

Valid 241955Z - 242230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628
continues.

SUMMARY...A possible supercell with large hail potential appears
evident over parts of southwest Texas over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Substantial thunderstorm activity currently extends
from Jeff Davis county east/northeastward into the San Angelo area,
with widespread rain and storms northward into much of northwest
Texas. The strongest activity remains along the southern periphery
of this activity where the storms have access to the warmer air
mass. Surface observations from the Big Bend areas into west-central
Texas show temperatures have risen into the 80s F while dewpoints
remain in the low 60s F. Meanwhile, temperatures aloft continue to
cool.

Mixed-mode severe storms are currently ongoing in this corridor,
which is also beneath the stronger upper-level jet. It is possible
toward the peak heating hours that a cell or two could produce hail
over 2.00" diameter, and/or move in more of an eastward direction as
the warmer air mass/SBCAPE aids rightward propagation and supercell
mode.

..Jewell.. 10/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!91mUiM-WMhBUU82NXb-iiTrRJCsgTw0J5Mc9qIlsTF_1NoM17ziDz-Rx0HLhh2mAng7DpCqdm= DcI1c2eBE04ZjX_pAc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30710373 31310250 31640149 31840026 31350001 30610023
29890079 29760352 30210414 30710373=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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