ACUS11 KWNS 242033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242033=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-242230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...from parts of north-central Texas into the Red
River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242033Z - 242230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Potential exists for severe storms to develop across parts
of north-central Texas and into far southern Oklahoma later this
afternoon and into the early evening. The area is being monitored
for watch potential.

DISCUSSION...An expansive area of rain and embedded thunderstorms
continues to spread across all of northwest TX, with recent trends
showing general storm consolidation from near CDS to SJT as of
2030Z. East of this ongoing activity, a moist plume is noted over
much of North TX, with mid 60s F dewpoints and southeast surface
winds. Meanwhile into central TX, temperatures are much warmer into
the upper 80s F. In between the two areas, a theta-e axis exists,
with trajectories bringing this air mass toward the approaching area
of rain.

Outflows within this larger area of precipitation may eventually
induce new development across the Red River Valley and into much of
North TX over the next few hours. Storm trends are being monitored
for watch potential, with damaging winds the most likely severe
mode.

..Jewell/Leitman.. 10/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-w7G-fmrCdLV59m85iiMgThpdvfssNNxVSk767ALZPm5YozuDBaSdIIWt6S3yokM5RoWHkvpt= YdHwHYPEDC5GNNLw6k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32929927 33569917 34359933 34629913 34659873 34459811
33999707 33639693 32569731 32039804 31869894 32059936
32329939 32929927=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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