FOUS30 KWBC 120831 CCA
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Putnam
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026
...There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Across Portions
of the Southern Plains on Friday...
Moist southerly flow from the Gulf will begin to increase across=20
the Southern Plains during the day Friday and especially into the=20 evening/overnight hours as a southern-stream upper-trough=20
approaches the region from the Southwest. This will help to=20
reinforce a frontal boundary left from prior shortwave(s) passage=20
with a roughly west or west-southwesterly axis from the western=20
Ozarks through Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. The late arrival=20
of an appreciable combination of increasing low level winds along=20
the boundary and height falls from the approaching upper-trough=20
should limit any storm development until after 00Z. The lack of=20
particularly notable moisture (surface dewpoints less than 60)=20
given that this will be day one of return flow as well as the onset
of night will lead to limited/elevated instability, with the=20
chance that development could also be mostly north of the quasi-=20
stationary boundary. Additionally, antecedent conditions are rather
dry suggesting initial rainfall would be mostly beneficial.=20
Nevertheless, model guidance has been consistent in depicting the=20
potential of locally heavy bouts of rainfall in the 2-2.5" range=20
which, if realized, could lead to some isolated flooding concerns=20 particularly for urban areas.=20
Putnam
Day 3=20
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026
...There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the ArkLaTex=20
to Mid-South Saturday...
The upper-trough will fully emerge over the Southern Plains on=20
Saturday and progress eastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley
by Sunday morning. Consolidating/deepening surface low pressure=20
will sweep eastward in tandem with an expected track based on the=20
latest model guidance from the Red River Valley east-northeast=20
through the Ozarks and into the Mid-South, with an eastward=20
extending warm front and trailing cold front. A strengthening low=20
level jet with an additional day of moist southerly return flow=20
from the Gulf will help to better prime the warm sector with=20
dewpoints into the 60s and some rather modest but relatively higher
instability in the 500 J/KG range.=20
Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in=20
vicinity of the low and eastward along the warm front, roughly in=20
the western Ozarks vicinity, with the potential for some lingering=20
isolated flooding concerns. More potent thunderstorms capable of=20
locally heavy rainfall are expected to develop with daytime heating
southwest along the trailing cold front through the ArkLaTex and=20
into eastern Texas. Increasing wind fields aloft, deep-layer flow=20
roughly parallel to the boundary, and eastward progression of the=20
cold front will likely lead to a line of numerous, potentially=20
organized thunderstorms with training potential, increasing the=20
likelihood of some locally heavy totals. Additional storms may=20
develop ahead of the surface low track in vicinity of the warm=20
front helping to prime soils and increase totals. However, the=20
front is expected to remain progressive, which will keep an upper=20
limit on rainfall totals, particularly with southern extent. A=20
Slight Risk has been maintained from the ArkLaTex northeast into=20
the Mid-South roughly following the expected low track. While=20
antecedent conditions are generally dry, a consensus of model=20
guidance supports areal average rainfall in the 1.5-2" range, with=20
locally heavier totals of 3-4", which could still lead to some=20
scattered instances of flash flooding. The latest 00Z model=20
guidance suggests the axis of heaviest rainfall is more likely on=20
the southeastern side of the Slight Risk, but have avoided any=20
significant adjustments for now, especially outside of the hi-res=20
window.=20
Putnam
Day 1 threat area:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!46NEEr1pCetZo53fznzHj33-cEYhtRPJBx1aHQ4g1drR= 2VXVqQu_UV20qOx-FZSR3yGhAcEwpFWJkI-LgdJo9q9SLxM$=20
Day 2 threat area:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!46NEEr1pCetZo53fznzHj33-cEYhtRPJBx1aHQ4g1drR= 2VXVqQu_UV20qOx-FZSR3yGhAcEwpFWJkI-LgdJofW1-6Ms$=20
Day 3 threat area:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!46NEEr1pCetZo53fznzHj33-cEYhtRPJBx1aHQ4g1drR= 2VXVqQu_UV20qOx-FZSR3yGhAcEwpFWJkI-LgdJov5d0nc0$=20
=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)