ACUS01 KWNS 241951
SWODY1
SPC AC 241949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of
north/central Florida and late tonight over portions of coastal
Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior thunder areas. Isolated
thunderstorms remain possible across the FL and Olympic Peninsulas
through this evening and late tonight respectively. Weak buoyancy
will preclude a severe risk. See the previous discussion for more
info.

..Lyons.. 03/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
Broad high pressure will dominate the weather over the
central/eastern US today, with a cold front sagging southward across
the FL peninsula. Strong daytime heating and convergence along the
front and the east-coast sea-breeze will aid in the development of
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Cool temperatures aloft
could result in a strong storm or two capable of small hail or gusty
winds. But the overall threat of severe storms appears low.

A strong upper trough and associated mid-level speed max will begin
affecting the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight, with some risk
of lightning flashes over the Olympic peninsula.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250044
SWODY1
SPC AC 250042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may persist for few more hours this evening
across parts of central Florida and late tonight over portions of
coastal Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

...Discussion...
A few storms remain this evening along and slightly north of the
cold front in central Florida. Weak to moderate instability remains
across this region and could support these storms for a few more
hours. However, as the boundary layer continues to cool, expect the
storms to weaken over land.

Some lightning is possible late tonight near the Washington coast as
cooling temperatures aloft result in weak instability over the
relatively warm waters off the Washington coast.

..Bentley.. 03/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250506
SWODY1
SPC AC 250505

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge centered across the Rockies will become less
amplified through the period as a strong mid-level jet moves from
the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. A surface low will
emerge across the northern Plains by this evening. Strengthening
southerly flow ahead of this surface low will moisten regions from
the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough (evident at both 850mb and 500mb)
will move through the Ohio Valley tonight. As isentropic ascent
strengthens ahead of this trough, thunderstorms are expected.
Instability will remain quite weak (<500 J/kg) and therefore, no
severe weather threat is anticipated, despite strong deep-layer
shear.

...Florida....
Thunderstorms are expected across the central Florida peninsula
today, particularly along the sea breeze on the west side of the
peninsula. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temps
could support some stronger storms, especially given the well-mixed
boundary layer across the region. However, weak effective shear
(mostly 20 knots or less) should limit the overall severe weather
threat.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are possible across northeast Colorado,
southeast Wyoming, and western Nebraska, parts of the northern
Plains, and western Washington. However, these storms should remain
isolated and pose minimal severe weather threat.

..Bentley/Wendt.. 03/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251159
SWODY1
SPC AC 251158

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Florida...
Even with nebulous/weak ascent aloft, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the FL
Peninsula along and south of a front. Moderate instability will
develop across parts of central FL with diurnal heating of a moist
low-level airmass, and occasional gusty winds and small hail could
occur with the stronger cores given the presence of rather cool
mid-level temperatures (around -12 to -14C at 500 mb). However, weak low/mid-level flow and modest deep-layer shear should generally
limit the potential for organized severe thunderstorms.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Low-level moisture will continue to gradually stream northward
across parts of the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley into the
Midwest/OH Valley through tonight. Some strengthening of a
west-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast this evening into early
Thursday morning across MO into IL/IN. Most guidance, with the
exception of the NAM (which is probably overdone with its depiction
of low-level moistening and related instability), suggests that
MUCAPE will struggle to exceed 500-750 J/kg. Even with strong
cloud-layer shear, this limited instability should temper the
overall severe hail threat with any elevated convection that may
develop this evening/overnight across IL/IN. Small hail appears
possible, though.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains...
High-based showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur this
afternoon across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent
northern/central Plains as an upper trough moves inland across the
Pacific Northwest and strong mid-level flow/large-scale ascent
overspreads these regions. Low-level moisture will be very limited
and MUCAPE is expected to remain meager (no more than 100-300 J/kg).
Even so, some lightning flashes may occur with this convection as it
spreads generally eastward through the afternoon and evening.

...Pacific Northwest...
Isolated, low-topped convection appears possible today mainly across
parts of WA as a mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the
Pacific Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and strong ascent
associated with a 100+ kt mid-level jet may support occasional
lightning flashes with this activity even though instability will
remain quite weak.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251551
SWODY1
SPC AC 251550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Relatively dry and stable conditions will be present over most of
the CONUS today, but with several small areas of some concern for thunderstorms. These include the Pacific Northwest, Northern
Plains, Mid/Upper MS Valley, and FL.

...Florida...
A weak surface front lies across the central FL peninsula, with
strong heating and dewpoints in the 60s leading to moderate
afternoon CAPE. Similar to yesterday, scattered thunderstorms are
expected along the east-coast sea-breeze and along/south of the
front. Winds aloft are weak, but cool temperatures aloft could be
sufficient for a strong storm or two capable of hail or gusty wind.
The overall threat appears too low to warrant severe probabilities
at this time.

...IL/IN...
Visible satellite imagery shows a zone of weak low-level warm
advection over IA, spreading eastward into IL. Several model
solutions suggest the risk of some lightning activity this afternoon
in this region, although it appears to be rooted in the mid-levels
and unlikely to produce any severe risk. After dark, more active
thunderstorms may develop over eastern IL and much of IN, but weak
instability will continue to limit any organized severe threat.

..Hart/Weinman.. 03/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251920
SWODY1
SPC AC 251918

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026/

...Synopsis...
Relatively dry and stable conditions will be present over most of
the CONUS today, but with several small areas of some concern for thunderstorms. These include the Pacific Northwest, Northern
Plains, Mid/Upper MS Valley, and FL.

...Florida...
A weak surface front lies across the central FL peninsula, with
strong heating and dewpoints in the 60s leading to moderate
afternoon CAPE. Similar to yesterday, scattered thunderstorms are
expected along the east-coast sea-breeze and along/south of the
front. Winds aloft are weak, but cool temperatures aloft could be
sufficient for a strong storm or two capable of hail or gusty wind.
The overall threat appears too low to warrant severe probabilities
at this time.

...IL/IN...
Visible satellite imagery shows a zone of weak low-level warm
advection over IA, spreading eastward into IL. Several model
solutions suggest the risk of some lightning activity this afternoon
in this region, although it appears to be rooted in the mid-levels
and unlikely to produce any severe risk. After dark, more active
thunderstorms may develop over eastern IL and much of IN, but weak
instability will continue to limit any organized severe threat.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260038
SWODY1
SPC AC 260037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely tonight.

...01z Update...

Stubborn upper ridge is holding firm across the southwestern
US/southern Rockies early this evening. As a result, stronger flow
is forced across the northern tier of states along with most
meaningful short-wave troughs. Midlevel height field is being
suppressed a bit across the northern Rockies/high Plains and a few thunderstorms have developed across eastern MT where lapse rates are
steep, but MUCAPE is very weak. This activity should become even
more isolated with loss of daytime heating.

Warm advection is expected to contribute to weak elevated convection
across portions of the Midwest tonight as profiles gradually moisten
in the 2-3km layer due to a modestly strong but veered LLJ. Forecast
soundings suggest any hail that develops with this elevated activity
should remain below severe levels.

Isolated convection that is currently noted across portions of the
central FL Peninsula should continue to weaken over the next few
hours as the boundary layer cools. Lighting threat should focus
offshore by mid evening.

..Darrow.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260536
SWODY1
SPC AC 260534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough
topping the dominant southwestern anticyclone over southern WY.
Latest lightning data supports this with isolated thunderstorms
currently noted from southern WY into the NE Panhandle. 00z model
guidance suggests this feature will advance into the Mid-MO Valley
by 18z, then progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 27/00z. As this
short wave advances east, surface ridging will build south across
the Plains and force a pronounced cold front across much of IA by
early afternoon with the sharp boundary settling south across
northern IL as a weak surface wave tracks toward southern Lower MI.

Deep westerly flow should allow surface temperatures to warm quickly
into the lower-mid 80s south of the front over IL/western IN. Even
so, convective temperatures may struggle to be breached until late
afternoon. Current thinking is upper 50s to near 60 F dew points
should return to this region prior to frontal passage, thus modest
MLCAPE is expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest weak
capping may hold across the warm sector so it's not entirely clear
how much activity will develop well ahead of the front. However,
strong frontal forcing will easily encourage thunderstorm
development and convection will evolve within a strongly sheared
environment. Profiles favor organized rotating updrafts and
supercells are expected, especially early in the convective cycle.
Given the strength of the front there is an expectation for storm
mergers and line segments to evolve. Very large hail is possible,
especially with early supercell development. As a frontal MCS
evolves, damaging winds are expected to be more common with the LLJ strengthening into the evening hours across the OH Valley. Some
tornado threat also exists with storms that are not undercut by the
surging cold front, both with supercells and within the extensive
frontal squall line. This activity will spread toward the Ohio River
where gradual weakening is expected during the late-night hours.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261248
SWODY1
SPC AC 261246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds all appear
likely.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Upper ridging will remain suppressed over the Southwest and southern
Plains today as rather strong westerly mid/upper-level jets
overspread the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A weak mid-level shortwave
trough that has encouraged occasional lighting flashes with
convection across the NE Panhandle earlier this morning will
approach the mid MS Valley/Midwest by late this afternoon. A cold
front is forecast to move southward through the day across
IL/IN/southern Lower MI/OH as a weak surface reflection develops
eastward into central PA through this evening. A partially
modified/shallow Gulf airmass will stream northward ahead of this
front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to remain in the
mid 50s to no more than low 60s.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly develop along
the length of the front from central IL eastward into IN, southern
Lower MI, and northern OH by 19-22Z as diurnal heating erodes
lingering convective inhibition. Even though low-level moisture
should remain fairly shallow/limited ahead of the front, a narrow
corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE (locally stronger possible) is
forecast to be present by mid to late afternoon given sufficient
daytime heating and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Strong flow of
50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer and related deep-layer shear of
similar magnitude will support organized updrafts and supercells
with this initial development. Large to very large hail (2+ inches
in diameter possible) should occur as long as a supercell mode can
be maintained.

A fairly quick transition to more linear structures appears likely
given the frontal forcing, with an increasing threat for scattered
to numerous severe/damaging winds as one or more clusters spreads east-southeastward across much of the OH Valley into western/central
PA through the late afternoon and evening. Given the forecast
strength of the low to mid-level flow, isolated gusts of 75+ mph may
occur. There is a threat for a few tornadoes as well with both
supercells and embedded mesocirculations within the linear clusters,
although a well-mixed boundary layer should increase LCLs this
afternoon as surface temperatures generally warm into the 70s and
80s. Some guidance suggests a locally greater threat for tornadoes
(perhaps a couple strong) may exist across parts of northern/central
IN/OH with any supercells that can be maintained along/ahead of the
cold front, as low-level shear should be greater across these areas
in association with a 35-50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet.
However, confidence in this scenario occurring was too low to
include higher tornado probabilities with this update.

Farther west across the mid MS Valley (MO into eastern KS), there is
lower confidence in warm sector thunderstorm development this
afternoon and evening due to the presence of a stronger cap.
However, elevated convection may occur along/behind the cold front
this evening, with strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MUCAPE
conditionally supporting supercells with mainly a threat for large
hail. Have made only minor changes to the Slight Risk across this
area based on latest guidance trends.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261610
SWODY1
SPC AC 261608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds all appear
likely.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a flattened upper ridge
centered over the south-central U.S. with strong westerly
mid/upper-level flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes. A mid-level
shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will move quickly
east-southeast into the Upper Midwest and act to suppress mid-level
heights across the Midwest/Great Lakes through tonight. Surface
analysis this morning showed a weak low over eastern IA with a
west-east oriented frontal zone extending east across the southern
Great Lakes. If a weak surface reflection is maintained and
develops east across the southern Great Lakes through this evening,
it may notably influence severe potential within a focused corridor
late this afternoon through this evening. The aforementioned front
will gradually push south and serve as the primary impetus for storm development.

Beneath a capping inversion, moistening will continue with surface
dewpoints rising into the 56-62 deg F range from the mid MS Valley
east into western PA. Upwards of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is likely by
mid afternoon south of the front. A belt of strong, westerly 50-65
kt 700-mb flow is forecast to move from IA and expand spatially
across the warm sector through early evening. This increase in flow
will act to elongate hodographs despite mainly veered southwesterly
surface flow. Recent convection-allowing model guidance varies
considerably on the depiction of cellular versus mostly linear
clusters evolving in the first few hours of the convective life
cycle. Time-lagged HRRR would imply a more spatially and
numerically extensive supercell hail and tornado risk than most of
the 12z HREF HRW members showing less risk of these hazards. The
tornado risk could focus with potential supercells near a weak low
and where surface flow would locally back to southerly. However,
confidence is muted regarding this specific scenario.

Regardless, current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly
develop along the length of the front from central IL eastward into
IN, southern Lower MI, and northern OH by 19-22Z as diurnal heating
erodes lingering convective inhibition. A mix of supercells and
organized linear clusters will evolve with large to very large hail
possible. A fairly quick transition to more linear structures
appears likely given the frontal forcing, with an increasing threat
for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds as one or more
clusters spreads east-southeastward across much of the OH Valley
into western/central PA through the late afternoon and evening.
Given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow, isolated
gusts of 75+ mph may occur. There is a threat for a few tornadoes
as well with both supercells and embedded mesocirculations within
the linear clusters.

Farther west across the mid MS Valley (MO into eastern KS), there is
lower confidence in warm sector thunderstorm development this
afternoon and evening due to the presence of a stronger cap.
However, elevated convection may occur along/behind the cold front
this evening, with strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MUCAPE
conditionally supporting supercells with mainly a threat for large
hail.

..Smith/Hart.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 262002
SWODY1
SPC AC 262000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA...OHIO...AND EXTREME WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be
possible.

...From northern MO across IL, IN, OH and into western PA...
The air mass continues to heat and destabilize this afternoon ahead
of a cold front, which extends from southern Lower MI westward
toward the MO/IA border at 20Z. The air mass remains capped for
surface-based parcels, but clouds will continue to develop along the
boundary with eventual severe storm development along and behind
much of the front. Stronger heating / larger temp-dew spreads
suggest a lesser tornado risk for western areas, while farther east
conditions appear a bit more favorable with more low-level SRH /
with lake breeze effects. GPS water vapor sensors also show higher
values of PWAT over southern IN and KY which will lift northeastward
across IN/OH/PA later today.

In all areas, steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear
beneath northwest flow aloft will support supercells producing
damaging hail. This may occur in both elevated cells north of the
undercutting front, and ahead of it.

For more information see mesoscale discussion #0291.

..Jewell.. 03/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026/

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a flattened upper ridge
centered over the south-central U.S. with strong westerly
mid/upper-level flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes. A mid-level
shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will move quickly
east-southeast into the Upper Midwest and act to suppress mid-level
heights across the Midwest/Great Lakes through tonight. Surface
analysis this morning showed a weak low over eastern IA with a
west-east oriented frontal zone extending east across the southern
Great Lakes. If a weak surface reflection is maintained and
develops east across the southern Great Lakes through this evening,
it may notably influence severe potential within a focused corridor
late this afternoon through this evening. The aforementioned front
will gradually push south and serve as the primary impetus for storm development.

Beneath a capping inversion, moistening will continue with surface
dewpoints rising into the 56-62 deg F range from the mid MS Valley
east into western PA. Upwards of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is likely by
mid afternoon south of the front. A belt of strong, westerly 50-65
kt 700-mb flow is forecast to move from IA and expand spatially
across the warm sector through early evening. This increase in flow
will act to elongate hodographs despite mainly veered southwesterly
surface flow. Recent convection-allowing model guidance varies
considerably on the depiction of cellular versus mostly linear
clusters evolving in the first few hours of the convective life
cycle. Time-lagged HRRR would imply a more spatially and
numerically extensive supercell hail and tornado risk than most of
the 12z HREF HRW members showing less risk of these hazards. The
tornado risk could focus with potential supercells near a weak low
and where surface flow would locally back to southerly. However,
confidence is muted regarding this specific scenario.

Regardless, current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly
develop along the length of the front from central IL eastward into
IN, southern Lower MI, and northern OH by 19-22Z as diurnal heating
erodes lingering convective inhibition. A mix of supercells and
organized linear clusters will evolve with large to very large hail
possible. A fairly quick transition to more linear structures
appears likely given the frontal forcing, with an increasing threat
for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds as one or more
clusters spreads east-southeastward across much of the OH Valley
into western/central PA through the late afternoon and evening.
Given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow, isolated
gusts of 75+ mph may occur. There is a threat for a few tornadoes
as well with both supercells and embedded mesocirculations within
the linear clusters.

Farther west across the mid MS Valley (MO into eastern KS), there is
lower confidence in warm sector thunderstorm development this
afternoon and evening due to the presence of a stronger cap.
However, elevated convection may occur along/behind the cold front
this evening, with strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MUCAPE
conditionally supporting supercells with mainly a threat for large
hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270048
SWODY1
SPC AC 270047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across
parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be possible.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level
flow over the southern Great Lakes, Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a
subtle shortwave trough evident within the flow over far northwest
Illinois. At the surface, a cold front is located from central
Illinois east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing near the front, extending
northward into the cooler air about 150 statute miles. The best
environment currently appears to be located from far eastern Indiana
eastward to east of Columbus, Ohio, where RAP analysis shows a
west-to-east axis of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. RAP
forecast soundings near this axis of instability have 0-6 km shear
in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
Cells are currently discrete within this environment, which will
continue to favor supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter appear likely with the more intense
supercells. In addition, low-level lapse rates are also steep, which
will support a wind-damage threat. A few gusts above 70 knots will
be possible. Also, forecast soundings within this unstable airmass
have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 450 m2/s2 range,
suggesting that a tornado threat will continue with the more intense supercells. The severe threat will likely be maximized within this
corridor over the next few hours...see MCD 293. The severe threat
should expand eastward across far eastern Ohio and into western
Pennsylvania.

Further west into parts of Indiana and Illinois, the strongest
storms are currently located near and to the east of Indianapolis.
Although the storms are not as strong westward into central and
northern Illinois, convective intensity is expected to increase as
the shortwave trough moves eastward across the state, along with the
exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered severe storms are expected
to develop over the next couple of hours, and a cluster or line
could become organized...see MCD 294. Isolated severe storms will
also be possible further west into parts of Missouri and far eastern
Kansas later this evening.

..Broyles.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270552
SWODY1
SPC AC 270551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from the Ohio Valley into
North Carolina and Virginia but no severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the eastern U.S.
today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
southern Appalachians and Carolinas. Behind the front, isolated
thunderstorm development with a potential for a few strong gusts,
will be possible in weak instability this afternoon. Elsewhere
across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected today or
tonight.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271241
SWODY1
SPC AC 271239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from North Carolina and
Virginia into the Ozark Plateau, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent surface analysis places an extensive cold front from just off
the northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the TN Valley and
into west TX. This front is expected to continue surging southward/southeastward today as a large area of high pressure
builds into the Plains. This progression will take the front off
both the Carolina/Southeast Coast and the TX/Central Gulf Coast by
early tomorrow morning, leaving only the FL Peninsula within the
pre-frontal warm sector.

The airmass preceding the front will be modestly moist, with
dewpoints largely in the upper 50s/low 60s. When combined with
modest daytime heating, this should be enough low/mid-level moisture
to foster limited buoyancy across VA and the Carolinas, supporting
the potential for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Some
isolated surface-based development is possible along the front, but
the progressive nature of the front will lead to undercutting and
limited residence time in the warm sector. Mid-levels will not be
particularly cold but should still be sufficient for limited
elevated buoyancy behind the front. Consequently, additional
thunderstorms will remain possible behind the front as large-scale
ascent increases. NC will be on the southern edge of the stronger
flow aloft, and deep-layer vertical shear will be strong enough to
support rotating updrafts and a conditional severe risk. However,
given only modest buoyancy and relatively warm thermodynamic
profiles, most updrafts will likely be transient and shallow, not
acquiring the necessary depth and persistence to organize. Best
chance for a strong storm capable of damaging gusts is in the
vicinity of GSO and RDU in northwest NC, where slightly improved
thermodynamic are possible.

Farther southwest, some deeper convective is possible well behind
the front this afternoon as the subtle shortwave trough currently
moving into OK moves through the Ozark Plateau amid modest elevated
buoyancy. Resulting convection should be transient and shallow, but
could still augment the strong low-level flow to produce damaging
gusts. A few lightning flashes are possible with the deepest cores.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271616
SWODY1
SPC AC 271615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...Synopsis...
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the
northern Plains through the OH Valley and into the Northeast through
tonight. A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
Chihuahua-Texas border as heights gradually lower as troughing
pivots slowly east across the East. The southern periphery of
stronger westerly mid and high-level flow will glance NC later
today.

In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the Cumberland Gap
eastward to the Delmarva, will push southeast through the Carolinas
by late tonight. Strong heating ahead of the boundary and dewpoints
in the 55-60 deg F range will contribute to weak buoyancy and
steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the
front late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast
soundings show only weak surface to 2-km flow (at or below 10-15 kt)
across the Carolina Piedmont. The weaker boundary layer flow and
weak buoyancy (few hundred J/kg SBCAPE) will likely limit overall
storm intensity. Although a strong gust or two is possible (35-50
mph), the propensity for an appreciable wind-damage risk still
appears sufficiently low at this time to preclude a categorical-risk
highlight over the Carolina Piedmont.

..Smith/Thornton.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271919
SWODY1
SPC AC 271917

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is
forecast.

Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast - to
remove 10% thunder probabilities from parts of WV/KY. Isolated
lightning flashes in northwest AR are expected to remain below 10%
coverage.

..Hart.. 03/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the
northern Plains through the OH Valley and into the Northeast through
tonight. A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
Chihuahua-Texas border as heights gradually lower as troughing
pivots slowly east across the East. The southern periphery of
stronger westerly mid and high-level flow will glance NC later
today.

In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the Cumberland Gap
eastward to the Delmarva, will push southeast through the Carolinas
by late tonight. Strong heating ahead of the boundary and dewpoints
in the 55-60 deg F range will contribute to weak buoyancy and
steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the
front late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast
soundings show only weak surface to 2-km flow (at or below 10-15 kt)
across the Carolina Piedmont. The weaker boundary layer flow and
weak buoyancy (few hundred J/kg SBCAPE) will likely limit overall
storm intensity. Although a strong gust or two is possible (35-50
mph), the propensity for an appreciable wind-damage risk still
appears sufficiently low at this time to preclude a categorical-risk
highlight over the Carolina Piedmont.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280058
SWODY1
SPC AC 280056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening over parts of
the Carolinas and southern Virginia, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes
region tonight, as a cold front advances southward through the
Carolinas. A few thunderstorms will be possible near and behind the
front this evening. No severe threat is forecast with this activity
or over the remainder of the continental U.S. through tonight.

..Broyles.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280548
SWODY1
SPC AC 280546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
Northwest mid-level flow will continue across much of the central
and eastern U.S. today, as a cold front advances southward across
Florida. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible south of the front
within a moist airmass across parts of south Florida and the Florida
Keys this afternoon. No severe threat is forecast, and no
thunderstorms are expected over the remainder of the continental
U.S.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281225
SWODY1
SPC AC 281223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface analysis shows an extensive area of high
pressure covering much of the central and eastern CONUS, the only
exception being across eastern MT where a weak lee low is in place.
Another weak low exists over southern NV, along an inverted trough
that extends from the central Gulf of California into central NV.

A weak frontal boundary separates the dry and stable continental
airmass associated with the high pressure from the more moist,
tropical airmass over the Gulf and central/southern FL Peninsula.
Strong heating and modest buoyancy will support showers and
thunderstorms along and south of this boundary during the afternoon
and evening, fostered by both convergence along the front and a westward-progressing sea breeze. Limited buoyancy and weak shear
should preclude storm organization, keeping the severe risk
isolated. Even so, relatively high LCLs and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support strong downbursts. Thunderstorms are not
expected elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281553
SWODY1
SPC AC 281551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will move
east into the western Atlantic and become increasingly displaced
from the Southeast U.S. A southward-moving cold front, evident in
visible satellite imagery over the Gulf Stream east of north FL,
will move across the FL Peninsula before becoming less defined and
decelerating as it encounters a sub-tropical airmass over south FL
and the Bahamian archipelago. Strong heating and modest buoyancy
will support isolated to widely scattered convection mainly along
this boundary during the afternoon and evening, fostered by both
convergence along the front and sea breeze boundary. Limited
buoyancy and weak shear will likely preclude severe thunderstorms.

..Smith/Bunting.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281919
SWODY1
SPC AC 281918

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will move
east into the western Atlantic and become increasingly displaced
from the Southeast U.S. A southward-moving cold front, evident in
visible satellite imagery over the Gulf Stream east of north FL,
will move across the FL Peninsula before becoming less defined and
decelerating as it encounters a sub-tropical airmass over south FL
and the Bahamian archipelago. Strong heating and modest buoyancy
will support isolated to widely scattered convection mainly along
this boundary during the afternoon and evening, fostered by both
convergence along the front and sea breeze boundary. Limited
buoyancy and weak shear will likely preclude severe thunderstorms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290053
SWODY1
SPC AC 290051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south and
central Florida this evening, but no severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
West to northwest mid-level flow will continue across most of the
U.S. this evening. At the surface, a cold front will move southward
through central Florida. A moist airmass is present to the south of
the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. Low-level
convergence will be enough for isolated thunderstorm development
this evening. However, instability will remain very weak, limiting
any potential for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental
U.S., conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms through
tonight.

..Broyles.. 03/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290557
SWODY1
SPC AC 290555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south
Florida.

...DISCUSSION...
West-northwest mid-level flow will remain in place over much of the
U.S. today, as a cold front moves southward into the south Florida.
A few thunderstorms will be possible near the front this afternoon.
Isolated storms may also develop over parts of far southern
Louisiana, and in Arizona as a subtle shortwave trough approaches
from the southwest. No severe threat is forecast across the
continental U.S. today or tonight.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291228
SWODY1
SPC AC 291226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south
Florida.

...Synopsis...
Surface ridging currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic and
covering much of the eastern CONUS is forecast to shift
northeastward into the western Atlantic today as mid-level flow
trends more westerly and surface pressure lowers over the Plains.
Strengthening pressure gradient between the Plains troughing and the
western Atlantic ridge will support moderate southerly low-level
flow and modest moisture advection across the central and southern
Plains. By early tomorrow (Monday), mid 50s dewpoints will likely
extend from south-central OK into the Mid-South, with 60s dewpoints
extending from central TX through the Lower MS Valley.

Despite this increasing low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft
and negligible large-scale ascent will preclude thunderstorm
development. Only thunderstorm chances across the CONUS today will
be across central/southern AZ, south FL, and a small part the
southeast LA Coast. Across south FL a weakening front and associated
low-level convergence will combine with warm and moist conditions to
support isolated thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms are also
possible over the southeast LA coast in the confluent low-level
southeasterly flow rounding the base of the surface ridging.

Predominantly dry thunderstorms are anticipated across
central/southern AZ where strong heating and deep mixing will occur
beneath modest mid-level moisture emanating from the eastern
Pacific. Given the high LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates, strong
downbursts are possible. However, limited updraft strength and
persistence should temper the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291612
SWODY1
SPC AC 291610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south
Florida.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow will prevail across much of the Lower 48 through tonight. Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude upper
trough immediately west of the southern California and Baja
California coasts moving east. This upper feature will probably
lead to isolated thunderstorms later today over Arizona from the
Mogollon Rim southward to the U.S.-Mexican border. A few weak
thunderstorms will also be possible near a decaying front over south
Florida through the late afternoon. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions
will influence weather conditions across much of the CONUS.

..Smith/Lyons.. 03/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291953
SWODY1
SPC AC 291951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south
Florida.

...20z...
No changes were made to the prior outlook, see the previous
discussion.

..Lyons.. 03/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026/

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow will prevail across much of the Lower 48 through tonight. Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude upper
trough immediately west of the southern California and Baja
California coasts moving east. This upper feature will probably
lead to isolated thunderstorms later today over Arizona from the
Mogollon Rim southward to the U.S.-Mexican border. A few weak
thunderstorms will also be possible near a decaying front over south
Florida through the late afternoon. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions
will influence weather conditions across much of the CONUS.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300048
SWODY1
SPC AC 300046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening into
tonight across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south
Florida.

...DISCUSSION...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of
the central and eastern U.S. tonight. At the surface, a moist
airmass will remain along the Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible in south Florida and in far southern Louisiana this
evening into tonight. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in
parts of southern and central Arizona this evening into tonight, in
association with a passing mid-level shortwave trough. No severe
threat is forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight.

..Broyles.. 03/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300543
SWODY1
SPC AC 300541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley late tonight into early
Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms could
occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early Tuesday
morning.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
Today and tonight at mid-levels in the Mississippi Valley,
west-northwesterly flow will gradually transition to
west-southwesterly, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves eastward into
the Great Lakes. In response, low-level moisture advection will
strengthen over the central U.S., as a 50 to 60 knot 850 mb jet
develops across the central Plains. The northern edge of the
low-level jet will be located in the upper Mississippi Valley by
this evening. Strong lift associated with the jet will likely result
in convective initiation during the mid to late evening from
northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin. RAP forecast soundings at
06Z in the La Crosse vicinity have MUCAPE increasing into the 2000
to 2500 J/kg range with effective shear forecast to be near 40
knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to approach
8.5 C/km. This environment will likely support large hail with
elevated supercells that develop in the late evening and early
overnight period. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will
be possible.

Further east into Lower Michigan, convective initiation is expected
to occur by late in the period. Compared with areas to the west,
MUCAPE and lapse rates in Lower Michigan are forecast to be weaker.
For this reason, the hail threat there is expected to be more widely
spaced and marginal.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301234
SWODY1
SPC AC 301232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning as well as over the Texas South Plains this
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a relatively zonal pattern in
places across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is
across the Gulf Coast, which is along the northern periphery of
modest subtropical ridging. Recent surface analysis shows a broad
area of low pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains
with several embedded lows, including one over southwest SD, another
over south-central NE, and another near the OK/KS/CO border
intersection. Modest troughing extends between these features, while
a stationary front extends from the southwest SD low
east-northeastward across southern MN and central WI. At 11Z, mid
50s dewpoints extended from south-central OK into the Mid-South,
with 60s dewpoints farther so from central TX into the Lower MS
Valley.

Overall upper pattern is expected to remain predominantly zonal
throughout the period as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves
along the US/Canada border, accompanied by a strengthening jet
streak. Substantial low-level moisture advection is expected
throughout the day from the southern Plains/Lower MS Valley into the
Mid MS and OH Valleys and Lower MI. By early tomorrow morning, mid
50s dewpoints will likely extend from southern WI across Lower MI
and into the upper OH Valley, demarcating a developing warm front.

Primary area of thunderstorm development anticipated today is in the
vicinity of the developing warm front from the mid/upper MS Valley
across the Lower Great Lakes into the Upper OH Valley and Northeast.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible with the moist and
confluent environments of the FL Peninsula and the Lower MS Valley
as well as along the dryline in the southern High Plains and
seasonably moist airmass over the Southwest.

....Mid/Upper MS Valley into Lower MI and the Upper OH Valley...
Significant low-level moisture advection is expected throughout the
day into Mid MS Valley, although this advection will be offset
somewhat by strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing. General
expectation is that upper 50s dewpoints will reach the IA/MO/central
IL vicinity by 00Z, with mid 50s farther north into southern WI and
southern Lower MI. Given negligible large-scale forcing and strong
mixing, capping is expected prevail throughout the day and into the
early evening. However, beginning around 22-00Z, increasing
mid-level moisture coupled with continued low-level moisture
advection and convergence near a weak surface low could result in
convective initiation across central IA. The earliest development
could be surface based with a trend towards more elevated storms
with time and northeastward extent as warm-air advection increase
during the evening. Steep lapse rates and moderate shear support the
potential for supercells with any more sustained updrafts. Large to
isolated very large hail is the primary severe risk. Even with the
elevated storm character, the prevailing warm/dry conditions above
the shallow return moisture could support strong downdrafts with
strong surface gusts.

Farther east, a few instances of small hail are possible from
western PA into western NY with the thunderstorms expected during
the evening and overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible along a dryline
forecast to extend from a weak low in western KS southwestward into
the TX Trans Pecos. Buoyancy will be weak and vertical shear modest
so storm structures are not expected to be particularly robust or
long lived. However, high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support a few stronger gusts at the surface.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301614
SWODY1
SPC AC 301613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this afternoon and
evening.

...IA to Lower MI...
Fast zonal flow is present across the northern tier of states today,
with minor perturbations embedded within the flow field affecting
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region. A combination of
daytime heating, low-level warm/moist advection, and increasing
low-level convergence along a surface baroclinic zone will result in
scattered thunderstorms after dark over IA. These storms will form
in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear. MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg will promote
strong updrafts with a few supercells possible. Large hail appears
to be the main threat with these storms as they progress eastward
into northern IL/southern WI and slowly weaken with diurnal cooling.


Storms will persist through the night and spread across much of
lower MI. Despite weak instability, a few CAM solutions maintain
vigorous updrafts, supporting a low risk of hail and gusty winds
overnight.

...TX Panhandle...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s will yield a moderately
unstable air mass along the dryline over the TX Panhandle this
evening. Most CAM guidance show isolated thunderstorm development
in this region - mainly in the 23-03z period. Forecast soundings
suggest the low/mid troposphere is dry and will limit the number of
updrafts that can survive. However, any storm that can persist will
pose a risk of gusty winds or hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 03/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301959
SWODY1
SPC AC 301958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND LAKE MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur farther east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this afternoon and
evening.

Little change was made to the outlook at 20Z. Storms are still
expected to form near or after 00Z over IA as a weak midlevel wave
moves out of NE, and theta-e advection around 850 mb increases on
the nose of the nocturnal low-level jet. Hail and locally strong
gusts will be possible.

As the increasing moisture spreads farther north overnight, it will
interact with the east-west oriented frontal zone from southern WI
into Lower MI, with additional development expected. Areas of hail
remain possible as lapse rates aloft will be steep. Moderate
deep-layer mean wind speeds should also result in corridors of
strong to damaging gusts as storms amass outflow.

Uncertainty remains regarding coverage of storms overnight.
Conditionally, strong westerly mean wind speeds and presence of dry
air in the low-levels may favor damaging wind gusts, perhaps
crossing Lake MI and into Lower MI overnight should a substantial
cluster of storms remain intact.

..Jewell.. 03/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026/

...IA to Lower MI...
Fast zonal flow is present across the northern tier of states today,
with minor perturbations embedded within the flow field affecting
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region. A combination of
daytime heating, low-level warm/moist advection, and increasing
low-level convergence along a surface baroclinic zone will result in
scattered thunderstorms after dark over IA. These storms will form
in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear. MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg will promote
strong updrafts with a few supercells possible. Large hail appears
to be the main threat with these storms as they progress eastward
into northern IL/southern WI and slowly weaken with diurnal cooling.


Storms will persist through the night and spread across much of
lower MI. Despite weak instability, a few CAM solutions maintain
vigorous updrafts, supporting a low risk of hail and gusty winds
overnight.

...TX Panhandle...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s will yield a moderately
unstable air mass along the dryline over the TX Panhandle this
evening. Most CAM guidance show isolated thunderstorm development
in this region - mainly in the 23-03z period. Forecast soundings
suggest the low/mid troposphere is dry and will limit the number of
updrafts that can survive. However, any storm that can persist will
pose a risk of gusty winds or hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 310042
SWODY1
SPC AC 310040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur farther east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this evening.

...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Michigan...
At mid-levels, flow will remain westerly across much of the central
U.S. tonight, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward across the
lower to Mid Mississippi Valley. In response, moisture advection
will increase from the southern and central Plains northeastward
into the Upper Midwest, as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens
this evening and overnight. The northern edge of the low-level jet
will be located from Iowa eastward into southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois, where lift will be maximized. Within this zone,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
evening into the overnight period.

On radar, isolated thunderstorms are already ongoing across
east-central Iowa this evening. In the vicinity of this storm, RAP
forecast soundings early this evening show a near surface inversion,
with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg, effective shear near 40 knots and
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for a
severe threat with cells that initiate later this evening. The
storms will likely be elevated and could become supercells with
potential for large hail. The greatest threat for large hail will be
located along and just to the north of the strongest instability,
from near Des Moines east-northeastward to the vicinity of Chicago
and Milwaukee. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible
with the strongest of supercells. A marginal wind-damage threat may
also develop as convective coverage increases from late this evening
into the overnight period.

Further east into Lower Michigan, scattered convective initiation is
expected by early Tuesday morning. These storms could have an
isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts, but the threat is
expected to be marginal and more localized due to weaker
instability.

...Southern Plains...
A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
west-central Kansas. Lift associated with this feature is
contributing to convective development across the eastern Texas
Panhandle this evening. These storms are located just to the west of
an axis of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range, according to the RAP. Forecast soundings near Childress
have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, with very steep low to
mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This should be favorable for a
marginal wind-damage threat, with any threat expected to persist for
a couple more hours.

..Broyles.. 03/31/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 310600
SWODY1
SPC AC 310559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated
large hail are expected today into this evening across parts of the
Great Lakes and Midwest. Isolated severe storms may also occur from
the mid to upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the southern
and central Plains.

...Upper Midwest/Southern Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes today,
as a more subtle shortwave trough moves through the Midwest. At the
surface, a low will move into Lower Michigan as a trailing cold
front advances southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Ahead of the front, a cluster of storms is expected to move
eastward through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the
morning, reaching Lower Michigan by midday. To the south of this
cluster of storms, surface heating with dewpoints of 55 to 60 F will
contribute to a broad area of instability. An outflow boundary
appears likely to move into northern Indiana and northern Ohio
around midday, where scattered convective initiation should take
place in the early afternoon. These storms are forecast to move
eastward into the central Appalachians during the mid to late
afternoon, with additional storms forming further west across
northern Missouri and central Illinois. As cells gradually increase
in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, MCS
development will be possible.

The greatest chance for severe storms appears likely to occur this
afternoon and evening from far northeast Illinois eastward into
western New York and northern Pennsylvania. Along much of this
east-to-west corridor, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000
to 1500 J/kg range by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will also
increase across the Midwest as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves
into the Great Lakes. Along the southern periphery of the jet, lift
and shear will be sufficiently strong for organized storms.
Supercells and short multicell line segments, associated with severe
wind gusts and large hail, are expected from mid afternoon into the
evening. Increasing cell coverage could result in a somewhat larger
severe line segment, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.

Further west into the lower Missouri Valley, isolated severe storms
are expected to develop in the late afternoon and early evening.
This area will be located further from the mid-level jet, which will
make deep-layer shear and low-level flow a bit weaker. For this
reason, the severe threat is expected to remain more localized.

...Southern and Central Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the southern
and central Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward across the Texas Panhandle extending northeastward into
southern and eastern Kansas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
in the 55 to 60 F range will contribute to the development of
moderate instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE rising into the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. As low-level convergence increases along and to
the south of the front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
form. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis late this
afternoon have large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions with
very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will result in
high-based storms that could be capable of producing isolated severe
wind gusts and hail. The threat should persist into the evening.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/31/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 311237
SWODY1
SPC AC 311236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is forecast to trend away from its previously more
zonal configuration towards more amplification today as the general
pattern begins to become more active. Several shortwave troughs are
expected across the CONUS today, combining with an expansive warm
sector to support an extensive stretch of strong to severe
thunderstorms from the southern High Plains into the Northeast.
Thunderstorms are also possible within the moist and confluent flow
from the Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and the
anonymously moist airmass across the Southwest. Additionally,
thunderstorms are possible during the second half of the period from
northern CA through the Great Basin as shortwave trough moves
quickly eastward across the region overnight.

...Mid/Upper MS Valley across the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley
into the Northeast...
Recent surface analysis places a low near the IA/WI border vicinity,
with perhaps another weak low farther southwest across southwest IA.
A warm front extends eastward from the IA/WI border surface low
across southern WI and southern Lower MI. Showers and thunderstorms
occurred overnight along and north of this boundary, with the
primary remnants currently over southwestern ON towards western NY.
Additional thunderstorm development is beginning to the northwest of
the IA/WI border surface low as well as farther south within the
warm sector across northern IL. This activity is likely supported by
a combination of persistent warm-air advection and ascent linked to
a subtle shortwave trough moving through IA. Most guidance suggests
this activity, particularly the IL cluster, increases in coverage
and intensity over the next several hours as it continues eastward
across Lower MI and eventually into western PA/western NY. Some
intensification of the convective remnants moving across southwest
ON is possible as well. Robust deep-layer westerly flow amid at
least modest buoyancy will support damaging gusts as the primary
severe risk with these clusters. There is also enough low-level
curvature to support a low-probability tornado risk, particularly
along the southwest flanks of the IL and ON clusters where a more
cell-in-line convective mode is possible. A line-embedded
circulation could also occur if these clusters can become more
organized.

How these clusters evolve, in particular the strength of any
outflow, will dictate the extent of airmass recovery in their wake.
This is particularly true across the OH Valley where much of the
guidance suggests another round of thunderstorms is possible along a
cold front forecast to move across the region this evening. Current
expectation is that the airmass will support strong to severe
thunderstorms, especially from central IN into central IL where the
influence of antecedent convection should be minimal. Steep lapse
rates and moderate shear will support a hail risk with the initially
more cellular development along the front. A trend towards a more
linear mode is anticipated thereafter, with undercutting by the cold
front likely as well.

Lastly, elevated thunderstorms are expected overnight from northern
MO into southern IA and central IL amid steep lapse rates and a
strengthening low-level jet. Marginally severe hail is possible with
this activity as well.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Recent surface analysis places a low over southwest KS, with a
dryline extending southwestward from this low through southeast NM
into Far West TX. This low is forecast to shift southeastward along
the leading edge of a cold front pushing southward into the TX
Panhandle and western OK, with its associated dryline gradually
shifting eastward. Increasing low-level moisture and strong heating
will help destabilize the airmass ahead of the front and surface
low. Low-level convergence along the front/dryline, and particularly
near the surface low, will support convective initiation. Vertical
shear will be sufficient for storm organization and a few supercells
are possible. Steep lapse rates and strong shear in the
cloud-bearing layer suggest large hail is possible early in the
convective cycle, while high LCLs suggest a trend toward strong
downbursts thereafter.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/31/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 311609
SWODY1
SPC AC 311607

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

...IL/IN/MI/OH...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
over northeast IL and northwest IN. These storms have a history of
hail, and are moving into an air mass that is warming/destabilizing.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow
aloft will promote and increasing risk of organized storms capable
of hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. See WW #78
and MCD #305 for further details. This activity is expected to
persist into the evening, spreading across much of northern OH with
a continued severe risk.

...Southern NY/Northern PA into New England...
Latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary extending across
northern PA. The air mass north of the boundary is rather cool and
stable, but is expected to recover quickly this afternoon with
strong southwesterly low-level winds and daytime heating. Most CAM
solutions suggest thunderstorm activity over southeast Ontario will
intensify and affect parts of southern NY/northern PA with a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado or two is also
possible. Storms may spread into southern New England by evening
with a continued marginal severe threat.

...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
Full sunshine will result in strong heating and steep low-level
lapse rates along the dryline over the eastern TX Panhandle and
western OK this afternoon. A surface cold front will surge
southward into this region, with at least isolated thunderstorm
development expected near the triple-point by late afternoon. These
storms will track eastward into western OK through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for damaging
winds and hail with these storms.

..Hart/Jewell.. 03/31/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 312002
SWODY1
SPC AC 312000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

...20Z Update...
The primary changes to the forecast were to adjust severe/thunder
probabilities in the Upper Midwest given the progression of the cold
front and impacts of earlier convection. The remainder of the
forecast remains on track. See MD 308/309 for additional short-term
mesoscale details.

..Wendt.. 03/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/

...IL/IN/MI/OH...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
over northeast IL and northwest IN. These storms have a history of
hail, and are moving into an air mass that is warming/destabilizing.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow
aloft will promote and increasing risk of organized storms capable
of hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. See WW #78
and MCD #305 for further details. This activity is expected to
persist into the evening, spreading across much of northern OH with
a continued severe risk.

...Southern NY/Northern PA into New England...
Latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary extending across
northern PA. The air mass north of the boundary is rather cool and
stable, but is expected to recover quickly this afternoon with
strong southwesterly low-level winds and daytime heating. Most CAM
solutions suggest thunderstorm activity over southeast Ontario will
intensify and affect parts of southern NY/northern PA with a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado or two is also
possible. Storms may spread into southern New England by evening
with a continued marginal severe threat.

...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
Full sunshine will result in strong heating and steep low-level
lapse rates along the dryline over the eastern TX Panhandle and
western OK this afternoon. A surface cold front will surge
southward into this region, with at least isolated thunderstorm
development expected near the triple-point by late afternoon. These
storms will track eastward into western OK through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for damaging
winds and hail with these storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010040
SWODY1
SPC AC 010039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected this evening from the Midwest into the central
Appalachians. Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging gusts are also possible across western Oklahoma and far
northwest Texas.

...Midwest/Central Appalachians/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level zonal flow pattern over the
north-central and northeastern U.S., with a low-amplitude trough
located in the western Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are ongoing near the axis of a 40 to 55 knot low-level
jet from northern Indiana northeastward into the central
Appalachians. Within this corridor, RAP forecast soundings have
SBCAPE mostly in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 35
to 45 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will be
favorable for multicell line segments capable of producing severe
wind gusts this evening. A few supercells with isolated large hail
and a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. As cells
continue to increase in coverage this evening, the development of a larger-scale multicell line segment may occur. If this happens, then
the wind-damage threat could increase into the mid to late
evening...see MCD 314.

Further southwest into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley,
scattered thunderstorms are developing near an axis of instability
where SBCAPE is around 1000 J/kg, according to the RAP. This area is
further away from the mid-level jet in the Great Lakes. For this
reason, lift and deep-layer shear are somewhat weaker in the mid
Mississippi Valley suggesting that any severe threat will remain
marginal this evening.

...Southern and Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
western Kansas and western Oklahoma. At the surface, a cold front is
located from southeast Kansas extending southwestward into west
Texas. A broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing near the
front from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas. The nearest
forecast sounding is at Childress, which has MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear around 40 knots and a 850-500 mb lapse rate near 8
C/km. This should be favorable for an isolated large hail and
wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to persist for a couple
more hours.

..Broyles.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010550
SWODY1
SPC AC 010548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also
possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern and Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the
Desert Southwest today and into the southern Rockies. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be in place across the southern
Plains. A quasi-stationary front will be located from near Childress northeastward into southeast Kansas, with a dryline extending
southward into west-central Texas. To the southeast of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing into the
2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Convective initiation will take place in
the late afternoon along the front and dryline, with a broken line
of strong to severe storms moving eastward across the southern and
central Plains.

In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, deep-layer
shear will gradually improve over the southern Plains as the
mid-level trough approaches. RAP forecast soundings in western
Oklahoma increase 0-6 km shear from about 25 knots at 21Z to near 40
knots at 00Z, suggesting that environment will support supercell
development in the late afternoon. Lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km
range will be favorable for large hail with supercells, and
hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible. In addition, a
tornado threat is expected to develop as low-level shear ramps up
during the late afternoon and early evening. Any supercell that can
form far enough away from other storms to maintain a relative long
life cycle will be favored to produce tornadoes. If any supercell
can become intense, then a strong tornado will be possible.
Otherwise, cells are forecast to congeal into a line and move
eastward across northwest Texas, west-central Oklahoma, eastern
Kansas and western Missouri during the evening. The stronger storms
within this line should be associated with severe wind gusts and
isolated large hail. A QLCS tornado threat will also be likely,
especially within the more intense bowing line segments.

Further south into southwest Texas, isolated supercells with large
hail are expected to develop to the east of a dryline. This threat
should persist into the early to mid evening. A few strong wind
gusts will also be possible.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the
eastern U.S. today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be
located in the Ohio Valley from southern Indiana east-northeastward
into far southern Pennsylvania. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s
and lower 60s F to the south of the front will contribute to weak
instability by early afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence
near the front and warming surface temperatures will result in
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Several short line
segments are expected to form and move eastward across the Ohio
Valley into the central Appalachians. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35
knot range and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated
severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts. A low-end
tornado threat will also be possible.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011253
SWODY1
SPC AC 011251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
Early morning radar and satellite imagery shows a cluster of
thunderstorms moving through central MO, just to the north and east
of a surface low over far southwest MO. Surface analysis shows a
cold front extending from this low northeastward across the OH
Valley and Northeast to another low over NH. A stationary boundary
also extends southwestward from the southwest MO low across central
and southwest OK, and northwest TX to another low over the Permian
Basin. Thunderstorms are expected to focus on each of these
boundaries today, particularly from the middle OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic and over large portion of the central/southern Plains
and Mid MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are possible across these
regions as well, with the highest severe thunderstorm coverage
expected from northwest TX through western OK into south-central KS.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern
Plains today as the shortwave trough currently moving through the
southern Great Basin continues quickly eastward, reaching the
central Plains by early tomorrow. General expectation is for the
stationary boundary mentioned in the synopsis to push north as warm
front and for mid 60s dewpoints to cover much of OK by the late
afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep lapse
rates (over 7 to 7.5 deg C per 12Z soundings and recent
mesoanalysis) will support moderate to strong buoyancy from
southwest TX into much of central and western OK. Height falls
attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin spreading over
this destabilizing airmass by the early afternoon, combining with
low-level convergence along the front and dryline to support
convective initiation between 21Z and 00Z.

Given the expectation that convective inhibition will be limited, if
present at all, widespread development is anticipated from western
OK into southwest TX. Kinematic profiles support supercells, but the
persistent ascent and extensive nature of the convective initiation
suggest that a discrete convective mode will be difficult to
maintain and a quick transition to a convective line appears
probable. As such, strong gusts appear to be the primary severe
risk. Even so, steep lapse rates should still support large hail,
even within the convective line. Very large hail (i.e. 2"+ in
diameter) is possible if a discrete mode can be maintained. A
discrete mode could also increase the tornado potential, but higher probabilities (i.e. 10%) were not introduced given the likely storm interactions and expected quick convective evolution into a line.
Some tornado risk will still be present within the line,
particularly during the 00-04Z period as low-level hodographs
lengthen amid a strengthening low-level jet.

This strengthening low-level jet is also expected to support a
secondary area of thunderstorm development from northeast
OK/southeast KS into central/southern MO during the late afternoon.
Large hail (with some isolated instances of hail around 2") is the
primary risk with these storms, most likely early in their
convective cycles.

...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic...
Ongoing cluster over MO will gradually move eastward with time, with
the airmass south of the front mentioned in the synopsis
destabilizing throughout the day. This destabilization coupled with
moderate westerly flow aloft could lead to a reintensification of
this cluster and/or new development ahead of it. Vertical shear will
be modest but still sufficient for bowing line segments capable of
damaging gusts. Greatest storm coverage (and attendant greatest
severe potential) is expected over the middle Ohio Valley and the
Mid-Atlantic States.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011615
SWODY1
SPC AC 011613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

...OK/TX...
Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across
northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over
west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and
widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle
into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening
with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.

...Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from
southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix
northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of
the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the
development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this
retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.

...OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic...
A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH
into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong
heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will
provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and
early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several
CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track
eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind
gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from
southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with
a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.

..Hart/Wendt.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011959
SWODY1
SPC AC 011957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update OK/KS/MO...
Observational trends and model guidance continue to show rapid
destabilization taking place this afternoon as a warm front
gradually lifts northward across OK into southeastern KS and
southwestern MO. Large-scale ascent is forecast to increase rapidly
tonight as the primary upper trough over the Four Corners ejects
eastward, aiding in storm development along a broad area of the
front. Semi-discrete supercells and clusters are possible tonight
before upscale growth takes place after 00z. The strong synoptic
ascent should favor a rapid strengthening of low-level flow and
shear. This would support a risk for damaging gusts and some
tornadoes with remaining supercells or linear segments. Expand the
5% tornado and 15% wind areas farther east into MO where CAM
guidance shows storm persisting overnight.

Farther southwest, no significant changes were made to the prior
outlook. Scattered semi-discrete thunderstorm development remains
likely along the dryline/front intersection across west/southwestern
OK into western north TX this afternoon amid filtered heating of a
moistening air mass. Initial supercells will pose risk for large
hail and a couple tornadoes. The damaging wind threat (and possible
some QLCS tornado risk) will likely increase after dark as storms
congeal and spread northeastward beneath an intensifying 40-50 kt
low-level jet.

...OH Valley and Mid Atlantic...
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and expected to
gradually increase in coverage through this evening along a frontal
zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. South of the front,
moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support some storm
organization with supercells or organized clusters from northeast KY
into southern OH and parts of WV/VA. Damaging gusts, and perhaps
some hail are possible with the stronger storms.

..Lyons.. 04/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026/

...OK/TX...
Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across
northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over
west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and
widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle
into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening
with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.

...Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from
southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix
northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of
the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the
development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this
retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.

...OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic...
A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH
into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong
heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will
provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and
early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several
CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track
eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind
gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from
southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with
a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020102
SWODY1
SPC AC 020100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and
tornado potential will continue across the southern and central
Plains this evening and overnight. Strong storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

... 01Z Update ...

Severe thunderstorms with a history of damaging winds are currently
located across southwest Oklahoma. This complex will continue to
move northeast this evening, aided by mesoscale circulations
associated with a mesolow/MCV across western Oklahoma. As the
low-level jet increases this evening, an increase in tornado
potential will be possible across portions of Tornado Watch #86. See
Mesoscale Discussion #325 for more information.

Elsewhere, clusters of strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be
possible across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri along a
surface boundary. Although deep-layer shear is somewhat less than
areas to the south and west, the presence of a low-level boundary,
an increasing low-level jet, and sufficient low-level instability
will continue to support some severe potential -- including
tornadoes -- for several more hours.

A hail and wind threat will also persist for several more hours
across southwest Texas where MUCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg
and deep-layer shear around 40 knots will support at least some
supercell threat.

..Marsh.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020604
SWODY1
SPC AC 020602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.

... Overview ...

A negatively tilted trough will quickly lift northward through the
Plains and across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As this occurs,
a modest surface low will race northeast from north-central Kansas
this morning into Ontario by Friday morning. Attendant to this
surface low, a west-east oriented warm front will lift northward
across the Great Lakes during the day and a north-south cold front
will push east across the region during the late afternoon and
overnight.

... Eastern Iowa east-north into Michigan ...

A strong low-level jet at the start of the forecast period will
support widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. The
low-level jet will strengthen through the morning as the midlevel
trough approaches and the H850 low intensifies. This will maintain
showers and thunderstorms through at least midday across Iowa and
Illinois before the H850 low moves far enough north and east for the
core of the low-level jet to focus farther east, taking the
precipitation with it.

In the wake of the morning/early afternoon convection, a narrow
corridor of destabilization should occur across central/eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois to the south of the warm front and east of
the cold front. Scattered supercells are expected to develop along
the cold front during the afternoon where MUCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 45 knots exists. Strong
low-level kinematic fields will support a tornado and wind threat
with these initial storms, and, despite modest lapse-rates, the
presence of supercells within a modestly unstable environment will
support some hail potential.

By late afternoon/early evening these supercells should move into a
less stable environment characterized by decreasing CAPE but
increasing low-level shear. Current expectation is that the initial
discrete storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear
segments, along the advancing cold front. Despite the decreasing
instability, the strength of the low-level wind field will support a
continued wind threat eastward into Lower Michigan during the
evening and overnight hours.

... Northeast Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and
western Kentucky ...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon along
and ahead of the surface cold front, where modest warm-air advection
is forecast to persist through the day. Despite weakening kinematic
fields, deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots and MUCAPE between
1000-2000 J/kg will support at least some severe potential --
including a tornado or two -- during the late afternoon and early
evening.

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021257
SWODY1
SPC AC 021256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show an extensive warm
conveyor, with embedded showers and thunderstorms, extending from
the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with some westward
branching noted over the Mid MO Valley. This warm conveyor is
associated with shortwave trough currently progressing through the
central Plains. Recent surface analysis places a surface low just
ahead of this wave over central KS, with a warm front extending
eastward from the low into the middle OH Valley and a dryline
extending south-southwestward from this low through the TX Trans
Pecos.

Expectation is for this shortwave to eject quickly northeastward
throughout the day, maintaining a negative tilt as it progresses
through the Mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest before ending the period
over northeastern Ontario. The associated surface low will move
quickly northeastward as well, progressing across southern and
eastern IA and southern WI before occluding over upper MI tonight.
Warm front attendant to this low will move northward as well,
bringing low 60s dewpoints into eastern IA, northern IL, and
southern WI before a cold front moves through. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front over
much of the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys, with the highest potential
for severe thunderstorms from eastern Iowa, northern IL, and far
southern WI.

...Northern MO/Southern IA across southern WI/northern IL into Lower
MI...
Extensive area of showers and thunderstorms is currently ongoing
from central TX into the Upper Midwest, within the warm conveyor
mentioned in the synopsis. Moderate to strong southerly low-level
flow exists within this warm sector. Progression of the negatively
tilted shortwave and associated surface low mentioned in the
synopsis will lead to a strengthening of this low-level flow, with
attendant moisture advection into more of the Mid MS Valley. Some
eastward displacement of the warm conveyor is anticipated, leaving
the potential for airmass destabilization ahead of the surface low
and cold front. This is supported by most of the guidance, which
depicts a corridor of surface-based buoyancy and little to no
convective inhibition from eastern IA/northern IL into central/east
TX by the early afternoon.

Best forcing for ascent within this corridor will be over the Upper
Midwest and Mid MS Valley, particularly from southern/eastern IA
into northern IL/southern WI, as both the shortwave and surface low
move through the region. The strongest vertical shear will be over
this region as well, supporting the potential for supercells with
the initial, more cellular development. Very strong low-level shear
supports a heightened tornado potential with any supercells,
including the possibility of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. Given the
linear forcing along the approaching cold front, a transition to a
more linear storm mode is anticipated, although there is some
uncertainty to how fast this transition occurs. The strength of the
low-level flow supports a continued risk for tornadoes within any
convective lines, but the primary hazard once any lines develop will
become strong gusts. Kinematic fields are strong enough to support
60 to 80 mph gusts. Additionally, despite weakening buoyancy, strong
ascent and robust kinematic fields support the potential for
damaging gusts across much of Lower MI later tonight.

...Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys into the Mid-South...
As previously mentioned, showers and thunderstorms are currently
ongoing from central TX into the Upper Midwest, within the extensive
warm conveyor mentioned in the synopsis. There is some potential for reintensification of these showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon/early evening from central/eastern IL into the northeast
AR/MO Bootheel, supported my modest destabilization and increasing
ascent. Storm structures will likely be somewhat shallow, but strong
flow will still support the potential for damaging gusts within any
bowing line segments. A brief tornado is possible as well.

Airmass destabilization is also anticipated west of this warm
conveyor, but ahead of the cold front, from central IL into
central/southern MO and northern AR. Much of this area will be
displaced south and west of the departing shortwave trough and
surface low, limiting large-scale ascent. However, some modest
ascent is possible along a weak lagging upper trough, which could be
enough to promote additional development. If updrafts can be
maintained, parameters support the potential for strong to severe
storms capable. Large hail is the primary risk, but a
low-probability tornado risk exists as well.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021615
SWODY1
SPC AC 021613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.

...IA/IL/MO/WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low
currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear
and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
(possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the
biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.

The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across
eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue
to show only widely scattered discrete development across this
corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and
favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a
risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI...
Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across
eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting
northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide
a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

..Hart/Kerr.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021957
SWODY1
SPC AC 021956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes remain
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Additionally,
damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa
northeast into Michigan.

...20z Update IA, IL, MO and southern WI...
Rapid air mass modification is underway to the south of a warm front
lifting northward across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest.
Clearing beneath the advancing mid-level dry slot may allow
temperatures to warm into the low 70s, with surface dewpoints near
60 F. This will support weak buoyancy amid very strong shear
profiles (0-1 km SRH >300 m2/s2) from observed VADs and regional
RAOBs.

Scattered thunderstorms and supercells ongoing over northern MO and
southern IA should mature and present a severe hazard over much of
the ENH area as they spread northeastward through this evening. A
few tornadoes (some strong and fast moving), hail and damaging gusts
are expected. Additional storms may develop within the warm conveyor
belt farther east across IL this afternoon/evening. Upscale growth
into one or more clusters with damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes
is the primary concern.

The main change with the 20z update was to trim thunderstorm and
severe probabilities to the west of the advancing cold front. See
the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/

...IA/IL/MO/WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low
currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear
and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
(possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the
biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.

The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across
eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue
to show only widely scattered discrete development across this
corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and
favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a
risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI...
Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across
eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting
northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide
a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030102
SWODY1
SPC AC 030101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Ongoing severe thunderstorms across the Great Lakes this evening
will remain capable of producing damaging thunderstorm winds, a
couple of tornadoes, and some hail into the overnight hours.

... 01Z Update ...

A vigorous, negatively tilted trough continues to lift northeast
across the Upper Great Lakes this evening. Ahead of this wave,
strong ascent is supporting multiple clusters/bands of severe
convection across the Great Lakes -- one currently across Indiana
and Michigan within the cyclone's warm-conveyor belt and another
across Illinois and Wisconsin along the combined Pacific front and
dryline.

Despite the loss of diurnal heating, strong large-scale ascent and
low-level convergence along the front/dryline will support
thunderstorms into the overnight. Although the overall intensity of
the thunderstorms will gradually decrease with time, the strength of
the low-level wind fields will support a continued wind threat into
Lower Michigan overnight, with a modest QLCS-type tornado threat.

..Marsh.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030558
SWODY1
SPC AC 030557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AN SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.

A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across
the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a
modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central
Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low
lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push
northward toward Lower Michigan.

... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ...

As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing
pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds
will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front.
Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will
contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values
approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the
day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and
south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline.
However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent
associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding
the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm
mode evolution.

If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field
would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat
along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm
front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode
emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds
and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode,
uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is
low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The
Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a
wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent
forecasts.

... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan
...

Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front
during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty
regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic
and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind
along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of
this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete
supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone.

... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest
Texas...

Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time,
additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The
combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the
convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the
main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any
discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear
segments.

... Southwest Texas ...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening
along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will
support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage
precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk.

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031242
SWODY1
SPC AC 031240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are possible late this
afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into southern Iowa
and north-central Illinois with any sustained supercells that
develop. Storms are otherwise expected to evolve into an extensive
line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas,
with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.

...Northern Missouri/southern Iowa/north-central Illinois...
The shortwave trough emerging from the north-central High Plains
this morning will spread east-northeastward toward the Upper Midwest
through early Saturday. This will be accompanied by a strengthening
(70+ kt) belt of cyclonically curved mid/high-level westerlies. A
surface low across the south-central Plains will transition
northeastward toward the Iowa/Illinois border vicinity tonight,
while a warm front shifts northward from northern Missouri into Iowa
and across northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, where low/middle
60s F dewpoints will become common across the Midwest near and south
of the warm front.

Within the warm sector, residually steep mid-level lapse rates and
modest insolation will contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg
(and MUCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg). Deep-layer shear will be
sufficient for supercells along and south of the warm front and east
of the Pacific cold front/dryline. While the likelihood/extent of
semi-discrete supercellular development remains a bit uncertain, the
main potential for such will increase during the afternoon near the
triple point around the Kansas/Missouri/Iowa border vicinity and
eastward, potentially as far east into western/north-central
Illinois in vicinity of the northward-shifting warm front.
Semi-discrete development would offer tornado/very large hail
potential, as well as a possible multi-round scenario of severe
storms in some of this corridor via a more prevalent line of storms
during the evening, with a damaging wind risk and some continued
tornado potential as the low-level restrengthens.

...Northern Indiana to western portions of Pennsylvania/New York...
Relatively strong westerlies atop the frontal zone, which will be
more southeast-progressive as a cold front with eastward extent,
will support at least isolated severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into evening, including a few supercells regionally.

...Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri to Northwest Texas...
Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
advances southeastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the
same time, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across
Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east. The combination of this wind field and the widespread
nature of the convection would lend itself to large hail and
damaging winds as the main severe hazards, although a tornado could
occur with any discrete storm or along the leading edge of any
organized linear segments.

...Southwest Texas...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon and early
evening in vicinity of the dry line and near some of the
mountains/higher terrain. Wind fields will support supercells
capable of producing large hail and localized severe-caliber winds.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031608
SWODY1
SPC AC 031606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.

...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.

...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.

..Hart/Wendt.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031955
SWODY1
SPC AC 031954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.

...20z update KS, MO IA and IL...
Scattered thunderstorm development was ongoing this afternoon ahead
of a weak surface low an associated cold front over the MO Valley.
To the east, a broad and unstable warm sector exists south of a quasi-stationary front extending into eastern MO and IL. Moderate
buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercells.
Damaging winds and hail remain the most likely near the cold front
as it moves eastward with a linear storm modes. A few tornadoes are
also possible with more discrete cells and backed surface winds
along the warm front farther east. The primary update to the
forecast was to remove thunder and severe probabilities behind the
cold front, otherwise the severe risk remains as is.

...Southern KS, OK and into TX...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely this afternoon and
evening along the advancing cold front from southern KS, across much
of OK and ahead of a dryline into west-central TX. South of the
primary upper trough and stronger flow aloft, overall forcing will
be weaker. Still, forecast soundings and observation trends show
moderate destabilization and sufficient deep-layer shear for
supercells and organized clusters/line segments. Hail (some 2+ in)
is possible with initial supercells before upscale growth is
expected to take place with the surging cold front.

A locally more favorable zone for large hail, damaging gusts and a
tornado or two may develop across parts of central and southern OK
if semi discrete supercells or stronger bowing structures can become organized/maintained this afternoon/evening.

...OH Valley...
A moist and unstable air mass will support scattered thunderstorms
across the OH valley this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts are
possible with multi-cell storms/clusters amid modest vertical shear.
Storms should weaken this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.

..Lyons.. 04/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/

...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.

...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040058
SWODY1
SPC AC 040056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms continue to evolve into an extensive line this evening
from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Damaging winds, hail, and
a couple of tornadoes remain possible through the overnight.

... 01Z Update ...

Thunderstorms continue to develop along and ahead of an advancing
cold front this evening. These storms should continue to increase in
number, growing upscale into an extensive linear MCS from Northwest
Texas northeastward into southern Iowa. Despite nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary layer, forcing along the cold front,
MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear should
support a continued hail and wind threat into the overnight hours,
especially across the southern portion of this area where updrafts
appear to be more robust than areas farther north. Given the moist
low-levels and a modest uptick in the low-level jet, a couple of
tornadoes may still occur as well.

Additional thunderstorms have developed eastward along the warm
front draped across southern Iowa east across Illinois, Indiana,
Ohio, and Pennsylvania. MUCAPE and vertical shear decrease with
eastward extent along the warm front, organized thunderstorms within
the frontal zone should support an localized hail and wind threat
for a few more hours. A tornado or two could also be realized with
any discrete/semi-discrete cell that can increase its resonance time
in the frontal zone, especially across central Illinois where better instability and vertical shear exist.

..Marsh.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040601
SWODY1
SPC AC 040559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...MUCH OF OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW YORK....

...SUMMARY...
Strong-to-severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas
northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. Sporadic damaging winds
will be the most likely severe hazard throughout this corridor, with
the greatest likelihood across the Lower Great Lakes.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into
Ontario on Saturday As this happens, a surface low should lift
northward from northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin into Ontario as
well and a surface cold front will accelerate eastward across the
Great Lakes and be approaching the East Coast by Sunday morning. To
the southwest, the cold front will not progress as quickly, but
should advance south and east through the day.

... Southeast Lower Michigan, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and
western New York ...

As the surface low lifts northward into Canada on Saturday, showers
and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along and ahead of the
trailing composite cold front/convective outflow. At the same time,
a surface warm front will lift slowly northward across Lower
Michigan. To the south of this front, and ahead of the cold
front/outflow, a moist airmass, characterized by low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints should be in place. Despite the strongest large-scale
ascent being displaced to the north and west of the warm sector and
weak midlevel lapse rates atop the warm sector, pockets of
insolation should be sufficient to destabilize the environment
enough to support some convective redevelopment along and ahead of
the composite outflow/cold front. Modest instability will combine
with seasonably strong low-level wind fields to support a convective
wind threat and an isolated tornado threat along the leading edge of
any sustained linear segments.

... Tennessee Valley southwest to eastern Texas ...

Widespread thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the
western portions of this area at the start of the forecast period.
These thunderstorms will likely be driven by convergence along the east/southeast moving composite cold front/convective outflow
boundary, with the exact western edge of any severe threat
demarcated by where this boundary is located at the start of the
forecast period. Seasonably high precipitable water values should
support some threat for strong wind gusts in the most intense
thunderstorm cores. These thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the day, despite weakening large-scale ascent and vertical
wind shear as the midlevel low pulls farther away. Given the
seasonably high precipitable water values, modest insolation should
support MUCAPE values between 500 and 1000 J/kg (perhaps as high as
1500 J/kg) across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
This may support a re-intensification of ongoing convection which
would be capable of sporadic damaging downbursts

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041242
SWODY1
SPC AC 041240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk are
expected across parts of the Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio
River Valley, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Other
more isolated severe storms may occur across the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern part of Texas.

...Ohio/Eastern Indiana/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania/New York...
A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest early today will continue northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through tonight.
Cyclonically influenced strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies
(50+ kt 700 mb) will overspread Indiana/Michigan toward the Lower
Great Lakes, atop a steadily moistening/heating warm-sector boundary
layer along and north of the Ohio River.

This will be ahead of a surface low and cold front, that is
considerably augmented by generally weakening thunderstorms and
prevalent lingering clouds/outflows through the pre-dawn hours.
These residual factors cast uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
today's overall potential, but a formidable flow field and
guidance-advertised heating/steady diurnal destabilization will
still be supportive of at least some severe potential regionally as
storms redevelop and intensify this afternoon. This includes
damaging wind potential, particularly given the magnitude of low/mid-tropospheric winds and boundary layer mixing, with some
tornado threat as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front. Overall storm intensities should decrease
by mid/late evening, owing to nocturnal boundary-layer influences
and the primary upper-level system spreading away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas ...
While diminishing in intensity overnight, showers/thunderstorms
remain extensive and prevalent from the Mid-South/Ozarks
southwestward into North Texas, as a synoptic cold front otherwise
continues to progress southeastward across these regions. While
details are complexified by considerable cloud cover and lingering
storms, multiple corridors of reinvigorating storms should
materialize this afternoon where more appreciable cloud
breaks/heating occur. Downbursts/locally damaging winds will be the
primary severe hazard, but this is currently expected to be on a
relatively isolated/episodic basis.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041627
SWODY1
SPC AC 041625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two appear possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.

...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.

This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 042002
SWODY1
SPC AC 042000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.

...20z Update Great Lakes Region...
A band of thunderstorms ahead of the eastward progressing cold front
will continue across northern OH this afternoon before moving into
western PA and southwest NY this evening. Diurnal steepening of
low-level lapse rates amid fairly strong, but unidirectional flow
aloft will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts. A brief
tornado also remains possible with any rotating elements, especially
near the southern shores of Lake Erie near the stalled warm
front/lake boundary. Have trimmed severe and thunder probabilities
behind the front over IN where the risk has decreased.

...TN Valley to the Southeast and South TX...
Ahead of the southern portions of the cold front, a warm, moist, and
unstable air mass will support widespread thunderstorm activity from
parts of the TN Valley, Southeast and into South TX. In the absence
of steep mid-level lapse rates and stronger vertical shear
(especially with southward extent), storm organization should be
transient and limited. Still, the moist environment and some veering
winds the lowest few km could support an occasional stronger or
briefly rotating storm. Any clustering could support occasional
damaging gusts or small hail with stronger updrafts near the front.
The outlook remains valid with only minor adjustments to the western
extent of thunder and severe probabilities.

..Lyons.. 04/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/

...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.

This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050101
SWODY1
SPC AC 050059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of damaging gusts remain possible across the northern
Appalachians this evening, and an instance or two of hail/wind may
accompany one of the stronger storms in Deep South Texas.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough continues to progress eastward over
the Great Lakes, with surface lee troughing prevalent over the
Appalachians and points east. A cold front continues to sweep
eastward across the OH/TN Valleys into southern TX, preceded by
enough buoyancy to support mainly general thunderstorms. A couple of
stronger thunderstorms may still occur over the northern
Appalachians and far southern TX.

...PA into the southern Great Lakes...
Ahead of the surface cold front, scant buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred
J/kg MLCAPE) remains in place per regional 00Z observed soundings.
Most of the CAPE is constrained in the 850-600 mb layer, which may
support a few strong low topped cells within bands of convection,
aided by strong low-level shear, as shown by the soundings. 0-3 km
SRH remains in the 200-300 m2/s2 range. As such, while the severe
threat is expected to remain sparse at best given poor buoyancy, the
strong low-level shear suggests that an additional damaging gust
cannot be completely ruled out.

...Deep-South Texas...
Multicells continue to propagate southward ahead of a cold front,
where ample buoyancy remains in place. While vertical wind shear is
poor, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 70 F dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates (per the 00Z BRO observed sounding), indicates
the potential for a sparse severe hail/gust instance before storms
dissipate in the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050550
SWODY1
SPC AC 050548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
this afternoon afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the
Mid-Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as upper ridging
builds over the Interior West today. This upper air pattern will
support a surface trough and accompanying cold front moving offshore
over the East Coast as surface high pressure becomes established to
the west of the Appalachians, over much of the CONUS. Low-level
moisture along the East Coast will promote thunderstorm potential
ahead of the cold front given associated deep-layer lifting. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic, where deep-layer ascent and vertical wind shear will
be strongest.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, breaks in the clouds from
central NC to the NJ shoreline will contribute to boundary layer
mixing, along with destabilization (given the presence of 60+ F
surface dewpoints). 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this
boundary layer will result in tall, thin CAPE profiles. A few
hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline,
with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As
the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of
storms should develop along the cold front. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs should support some organization of the squall
line, with a few damaging gusts possible during the afternoon.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051244
SWODY1
SPC AC 051242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon across the eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region.

...Carolinas/Delmarva/Mid-Atlantic States...
Multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over the Midwest, within the
base of the broad upper trough centered over Canada/Great Lakes,
will progress east-northeastward with steady height falls and
strengthening flow aloft particularly for the Mid-Atlantic region
and Delmarva. Prevalent showers/some thunderstorms early today will
accompany an east/southeastward-moving cold front, but cloud breaks
should allow for pre-frontal heating particularly across the coastal
plain over the Carolinas and far southeast Virginia.

A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic
shoreline, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas. As the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon,
a line of storms should develop and intensify along the cold front.
Modestly curved low-level hodographs should support linearly
organizing clusters/bands of storms, with a few damaging wind gusts
possible during the afternoon.

...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will be rather limited, thermodynamic
profiles may be sufficiently supportive of a few lightning flashes
late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin in vicinity of a southeastward-spreading front. Gusty winds may also occur with this
convection in the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer and
strengthening northwesterly winds aloft.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051612
SWODY1
SPC AC 051610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.

Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.

...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051954
SWODY1
SPC AC 051953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas.

...20z Update...
Latest radar and lightning data shows a band of pre-frontal
convection moving across the Carolinas and far southeast VA. This
activity will continue to pose an isolated wind damage threat for
the next few hours before moving offshore by early evening. 5% wind probabilities have been adjusted accordingly, and the 10% general
thunder probability highlights regions with remaining MUCAPE ahead
of the approaching cold front. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.

..Moore.. 04/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.

Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.

...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060059
SWODY1
SPC AC 060057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible across the Florida Peninsula
through early tonight.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front continues to move offshore into the Atlantic,
aided by the eastward advancement of an upper trough over the Great
Lakes. Much of the low-level moisture and favorable buoyancy for
organized thunderstorms has either diminished or moved offshore with
the cold front. Some low-level moisture and instability remains
across the FL Peninsula, where thunderstorms are currently in
progress. These storms should benefit from residual buoyancy for a
few more hours before nocturnal stabilization and the arrival of the
cold front limits thunderstorm potential.

..Squitieri.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060543
SWODY1
SPC AC 060541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. No severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will begin exiting the Northeast and
overspreading the Atlantic as another mid-level trough impinges on
the Pacific Northwest and a lower amplitude impulse traverses the
Southwest today. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS
will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee
troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the
southern High Plains. As such, convective potential will be limited
over the much of the U.S. with few exceptions. A few embedded
mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will
foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning
flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the
eastern Great Lakes today.

The best chance for organized thunderstorm potential will be over
the FL Peninsula, where ample low-level moisture will exist in
proximity to a stalled frontal boundary. Afternoon peak heating will
support scattered thunderstorm development amid tall, thin CAPE
profiles, but relatively poor vertical wind shear. While strong
gusts may accompany some of the deeper storm cores, the threat for
severe storms appears too low for the inclusion of severe
wind-driven probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061250
SWODY1
SPC AC 061248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may
occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized
severe potential is expected to remain low.

...Synopsis...
The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while
westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the
northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface
high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level
trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida
Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to
encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four
Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today.

...Central/southern Florida Peninsula...
Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with
easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior
peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the
region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain
relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening
low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and
intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a
few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong
downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the
marginality of the overall scenario.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061618
SWODY1
SPC AC 061616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.

Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061922
SWODY1
SPC AC 061920

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.

...20z Update...
No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 04/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.

Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070047
SWODY1
SPC AC 070046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of
the Pacific Northwest, Desert Southwest, and Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast,
with upper ridging persisting over the Northwest, and a
low-amplitude impulse impinging on the Southwest this evening.
Across the Northwest and Southwest, colder air aloft is supporting
scant buoyancy, which will continue to promote the potential for a
couple of lightning flashes through early tonight. Thunderstorms
continue to benefit from a moist, unstable environment across the
central and southern FL Peninsula. Storms should gradually weaken
this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Squitieri.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070455
SWODY1
SPC AC 070454

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject over the Atlantic while another
pronounced mid-level trough rapidly traverses the northern Rockies
today. Meanwhile, multiple low-amplitude impulses traversing
relatively zonal upper flow will overspread the Southwest and the FL
Peninsula. Across the Southern Rockies, enough lift amid cool air
aloft (and thus scant buoyancy) should accompany the aforementioned low-amplitude mid-level impulse to support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development. Scattered thunderstorms may also
develop across the FL Peninsula along sea-breeze boundaries given a
moist, heated low-level airmass. Scattered high-based/low-topped
storms are likely across the northern High Plains with the approach
of the upper trough. Storms will develop atop a deep and dry
boundary layer, but with scant buoyancy. Given the dry boundary
layer, gusty conditions may accompany the stronger storms. However,
the severe wind threat currently appears too low for the
introduction of a Category 1/Marginal risk at this time.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/07/2026

$$

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