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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0332

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 2 17:29:21 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 021729
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021728=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-022000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0332
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of northern MO...southern/eastern
    IA...northern IL...extreme southwest WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 021728Z - 022000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms with a tornado risk may develop this
    afternoon. Eventual Tornado Watch issuance is likely, though timing
    is uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving
    across the lower MO Valley early this afternoon. A 998 mb surface
    low is located near the southwest IA/northwest MO border, with a
    cold front trailing south/southwest into far southeast NE and
    eastern KS. A warm front currently extends east-southeast of the low
    into northern MO, then bends east-northeast from northeast MO into central/northern IL. Thunderstorms have developed along the cold
    front into northwest MO/far northeast KS, with gradually increasing
    cumulus noted within the warm sector in advance of the cold front.=20

    The surface low is forecast to move east-northeastward through the
    afternoon, in conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough.
    Clearing associated with the midlevel dry slot and strong low-level
    flow (40-60 kt in the lowest 2 km per regional VWPs) will allow the
    warm front to quickly move northward in advance of the surface low,
    with a destabilizing warm sector expected to develop into parts of southern/eastern IA and northern IL by mid/late afternoon.=20

    MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg (locally greater where stronger
    heating occurs) and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will provide
    a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms within the
    warm sector this afternoon. However, given the relatively modest
    buoyancy, potential for storms to mature remains somewhat uncertain.
    If any robust updrafts can be sustained, then strong low-level
    shear/SRH will support tornado potential, especially near the track
    of the surface low. Localized severe gusts and isolated hail will
    also be possible, due to the strong low-level flow and
    supercell-favorable wind profiles. Eventual Tornado Watch issuance
    is likely this afternoon, though timing remains somewhat uncertain.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 04/02/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-3GSf66d4uaq1iTQc6ASsFx-CSKu4YdIm6fspCUkrr_g3WFG6Ly40R5gw_6rOsPm2Fb8Qb1nz= tjXdLw911l2jP9PXpo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40709476 41489346 42259169 42599085 42648913 42048870
    41468889 40858994 40189097 39599377 39819450 40709476=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)