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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0334

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 2 20:41:52 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 022041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022041=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-022215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0334
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern IA...northwest IL...far northeast
    MO

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 89...

    Valid 022041Z - 022215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 89 continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, hail, and severe gusts will spread
    eastward through late afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has developed across parts of central/southern IA and far northern MO, immediately in advance of
    an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
    surface low. A warm front extending eastward from the low continues
    to move quickly northward, with ongoing storms expected to persist
    as they move eastward across the warm sector.=20

    Ahead of the primary broken line of storms, a supercell has recently intensified near Ottumwa, IA, where 2-hour surface pressure falls
    were maximized on the 20Z surface analysis. This supercell recently
    produced 2-inch diameter hail. While surface winds south of the warm
    front remain somewhat veered, strong flow just above the surface
    (50+ kt at 1-2 km AGL per area VWPs) is supporting 0-1 km SRH of
    greater than 200 m2/s2, sufficient to support a tornado threat with
    this supercell and any other warm-sector supercell through the
    afternoon. Otherwise, large hail and localized severe gusts will
    continue to be possible.=20

    Farther southeast, convection is gradually increasing across far
    northeast MO/southeast IA, and a supercell or two could evolve
    within this region with time, with an attendant threat of all severe
    hazards.

    ..Dean.. 04/02/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_KkXpjIstK1Dz7FoWsluaszIob84qga2iaInQdAPygcB9NLaQaYHnOCH0SplPAmiaJsiHbTvf= Ww9xyi96HsgzrFw294$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40299322 41199266 41759303 42209217 42549095 42459048
    42259021 41808992 41258988 40568992 39849048 39669239
    40299322=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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