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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0338

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 2 22:40:22 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 022240
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022239=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-030045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0338
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0539 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

    Areas affected...east-central MO into central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 022239Z - 030045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase/persist into the evening
    downstream from WW 89 from east-central Missouri into central
    Illinois. Timing and coverage of storm activity remains uncertain.
    Trends being monitored for possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed and weakened north of I-70
    across east-central MO over the past hour. This activity is
    developing near the surface wind shift/dryline as a dryslot aloft
    overspreads the region. This is likely suppressing further development/intensification at this time. However, CAMs and WoFS
    guidance suggest more robust development should occur by 00z near
    the MS River and into central IL. This airmass has largely recovered
    from earlier day showers and thunderstorms where clearing has
    occurred this afternoon. Temperatures have rebounded into the low to
    mid 70s and dewpoints remain in the 60-64 F range, resulting in a
    corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear magnitudes near 40
    kt are noted with stronger, backed low-level winds evident in
    surface observations across IL, supporting supercell wind profiles.=20

    If isolated to scattered storm development can occur and become
    sustained across this area, damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two
    will be possible. Timing and convective evolution remains uncertain
    and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance sometime in
    the next few hours.

    ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/02/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8qBKfj_c8Md9UGMYF-9DSwYT26FvqVWb3uD5rFPmzKB4rpTPuxe8tcMcBBbMqg8uLa4sS-_Hn= JBLtIFsViEF8xHswWo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39309157 40848878 40848845 40688819 40148806 39028857
    38548923 38199005 38109067 38219124 38499175 39309157=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)