ACUS11 KWNS 032015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032015=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-032215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeast IN/far northern KY into OH...western/central PA...northern WV Panhandle...southwest NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032015Z - 032215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Showers and a few thunderstorms have recently developed
within a broad pre-frontal corridor from parts of IN/OH into
northwest PA/southwest NY. Within this corridor, MLCAPE increases
from around 500 J/kg across western PA/southwest NY, to the
1000-1500 J/kg range farther southwest into IN and western OH, where
stronger heating has occurred. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will be
sufficient for some storm organization, though with only modest
frontal convergence and large-scale ascent, coverage of robust
updrafts may tend to remain isolated.=20

Steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate southwesterly flow in
the 1-3 km AGL layer will support potential for locally
gusty/damaging winds with the strongest storms. If any organized
multicells or a marginal supercell can evolve with time, then some
threat for isolated hail could also develop.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8YAe7Jv1H-7MXpf4GSKl4pA6I7NCRGfhXVcNaWseVDsW4z5mVcYdHvp5r4UEWXtR4Y8pJYgip= mDig5DKBhtVvWME9Co$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...
IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 38498499 38688655 39438648 40438468 41418099 41827994
42417858 42457778 42147742 41377759 40877863 40078042
39188316 38498499=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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