ACUS11 KWNS 032202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032201=20
TXZ000-040000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Big Bend into Stockton
Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032201Z - 040000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells forming along a dryline across the
Texas Big Bend Region into Stockton Plateau will pose a risk of
large/very large hail and severe wind gusts over the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is ongoing south of Fort
Stockton along a trailing dryline. A moderately unstable environment
(2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and around 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear
will favor supercell development capable of large/very large hail
and severe wind gusts. While mid-level lapse rates remain modest (~7
C/km), ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone (300-400 J/kg)
coupled with straight, elongated hodographs will support the
potential for hail of 2+ inches in diameter with any persistent
supercell. Given the displacement of better synoptic-scale forcing
well to the north, storm coverage is expected to remain isolated.
Thus, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. A new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may need to be considered, however, should
supercells trend towards more scattered coverage with the potential
for a longer duration hail threat.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__jq0LtiBGi3R9XR7HYS-4vi2BC3Zts5ab2PPPZEr-w6DlRbuMZoDCEJ6Frfx68otnrDzuzjS= Ei6cdJZ-q1rgM-F0Ck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29550256 29350277 29100279 28880313 29150343 29480355
29870354 30270342 30920291 31290225 31130154 30630123
30060127 29740160 29680213 29550256=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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