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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0347

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 4 00:25:01 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 040024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040024=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-040200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0347
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0724 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

    Areas affected...Central portions of Illinois into central and
    northwest Indiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...

    Valid 040024Z - 040200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.

    SUMMARY...All severe hazards may accompany ongoing storms along a
    warm front over central IL.

    DISCUSSION...Supercells have matured across central IL over the past
    couple of hours, with multiple instances of severe hail and at least
    one brief tornado reported. These storms are progressing eastward
    along a warm front, where SRH is locally maximized. The 00Z ILX
    observed sounding depicts an uncapped warm sector, characterized by
    modest tropospheric lapse rates atop upper 60s F dewpoints, yielding
    tall and relatively thin MLCAPE (just under 1000 J/kg). This
    sounding also shows modest low-level curvature, but little
    upper-level elongation. As such, it has been difficult to yield
    sustained low-level mesocyclones with greater tornado potential, and
    it is unclear if this scenario will amplify.=20

    Nonetheless, despite gradual boundary layer stabilization this
    evening, an increase in the low-level jet this evening may result in
    persistent supercell structures for at least a few more hours. The
    best chance for short-term severe (any hazard) will be across
    central IL, given the presence of ongoing supercells. The severe
    threat appears to have diminished for the time being from Iroquois
    County IL into IN.

    ..Squitieri.. 04/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8FbknhZrVi0RulLUIrxlsFGqwmq1d_j7LcdFfBoFFs_HBVAOH09b0Fnfj7jcTb_IwaL_gfwr7= 4ep7sQUjqFkSholGQ4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 40059049 40638988 41038841 41088706 40838636 40498651
    40368731 40258831 40128933 40029016 40059049=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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