ACUS11 KWNS 040433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040433=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-040530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Missouri...southern and
eastern Oklahoma...northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...

Valid 040433Z - 040530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts remain possible with an expansive MCS over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A persistent, elongated MCS has materialized from
southwest MO to south-central OK over the past few hours, with a
progressive embedded bowing feature continuing across east-central
OK. This bow has a history of severe gusts, and while the bow has
diminished a bit in intensity, severe gusts remain possible given
1000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 35 kts of effective bulk shear remaining in
place. A severe gust may also occur wherever a additional bowing
structures may materialize, from southwestern MO to southern OK.
However, the greatest short-term severe risk remains with the
progressive bow.

..Squitieri.. 04/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7q6Rg1fwKcKPdlfOoOaHOqpCPbhxPtTMViNI-BGXHWxPdtrT6UchR2PFN8SAGYL8SWu_iY9jU= CTR7QOGXn56i0b5RDQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34389852 34829669 35069621 36219521 37879338 38069307
38079282 37949252 37449236 36769269 35829349 35099448
34559519 34179573 33969642 33919726 34019825 34389852=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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