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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0354

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 4 06:33:05 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 040633
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040632=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-040800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0354
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

    Areas affected...Far east-central OK...western AR...and southern MO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...

    Valid 040632Z - 040800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado remain
    possible. It is unclear if a downstream watch is needed, though
    trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Along the southern portion of an expansive QLCS
    extending from the Midwest southward into the southern Plains, a north/south-oriented segment of the line in far east-central OK will
    pose the greatest risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
    tornado into western AR during the next couple hours. Here, around
    40 kt of deep-layer shear is oriented orthogonal to the line, which
    is favoring updrafts keeping pace with the gust front, as well as
    new cells developing immediately ahead of the line. Relatively
    greater surface-based buoyancy (albeit limited) and a 40-50 kt
    low-level jet (per VWP data) near this portion of the line will
    continue to support damaging wind gusts and embedded circulations
    capable of producing a brief tornado. Decreasing buoyancy and
    forcing for ascent with eastward extent casts uncertainty on the
    downstream severe risk and need for a new watch, though trends are
    being monitored.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7rAxqhDDqvVsr2WLFqKYa2Zn5n8hyn0ffXFj6Uj_-8gwuVTjaYERsHaJeNjj_dw_BXyhNu6KQ= SPOo2nl7HW4A7IJPgE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35039499 35519476 35929443 36559380 37329352 37559329
    37739278 37649230 37389202 36929197 36369218 35439288
    34889366 34749437 34849479 35039499=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)