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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0357

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 4 17:15:10 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 041715
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041714=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-041915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0357
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1214 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

    Areas affected...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041714Z - 041915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Filtered surface heating of a very moist arimass will
    support scattered thunderstorms capable of wind damage this
    afternoon. Lack of storm organization should preclude watch
    issuance, however.

    DISCUSSION...Broken cloud cover is promoting modest surface heating
    of a very moist (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass early
    this afternoon. With time, additional heating should allow for
    scattered thunderstorm development along and ahead of the cold
    front. This region exists on the southern fringe of the stronger
    mid-level winds, but will have 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon.
    25-35 kts of effective shear would support marginally, transiently
    organized storms capable of wind damage. Poor mid-level lapse rates
    and a linear mode will limit hail potential. There is lingering,
    modestly strong 850 mb winds that will be diminishing through the
    afternoon. The tornado threat should be low and conditional in the
    short-term and decreasing with time.

    ..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4LHYdwbipKGBotyn0Yy6r1m_YeAzPgzMsMlgDYGBY_GYKU91sATw-h7xvg-SlT5fs5Z3AJD3m= sGY8l9lS2V64dHn6xA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 30979636 31989598 33399367 34279100 34728917 34308836
    32229001 30919255 30479412 30549581 30649617 30979636=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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