ACUS11 KWNS 041747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041746=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-042015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...central and northern Ohio toward Lake Erie and
Vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041746Z - 042015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop over the next few hours, with
areas of strong to damaging gusts possible. A brief tornado cannot
be ruled out near the warm front.

DISCUSSION...A composite cold front, reinforced by outflow from
ongoing rain, is nearing the IN/OH border, and extending south
across the OH River. Meanwhile, a warm front is moving into extreme
southeast Lower MI, and extending east across Lake Erie and into far southwestern NY.

Strong heating has already steepened low-level lapse rates across
the warm sector, resulting in strong southerly wind gusts to 30 kt.
As warming persists, the air mass will destabilize further, with
MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg expected.

While deep-layer mean wind fields are substantial with 40-50 kt
speeds common aloft, shear is a bit marginal. Another mitigating
factor is a midlevel subsidence inversion, which is reducing overall
CAPE.

Despite this, the leading north-south outflow boundary will serve as
a focus for renewed development over the next few hours. Additional
storms may form in the warm sector as the air mass becomes uncapped.
The steep low-level lapse rates and 40+ kt mean winds aloft will aid
surface gusts with any of the substantial storms. Low-level shear
near the warm front could favor a brief tornado as the cold front or
individual cells interact, though much of that activity should
quickly cross into cooler air.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8uGhC-x41DPoYEwRnVuBs0Z7VjCq4X1JxvxkJKBSVnKG7PgMa7-Bl6G2xkXJsby2BokoP0V3h= 905leSAjQCGk-QZIwA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON 40328193 39728260 39328433 39348470 39848460 40608450
41258449 41748423 42078378 42178268 42418056 42567944
42387912 42087922 41657999 41388038 40328193=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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