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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0360

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 4 22:11:40 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 042211
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042211=20
    VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-050015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0360
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0511 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the Tennessee River Valley into
    central/eastern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042211Z - 050015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms may bring strong to occasionally
    damaging wind gusts to portions of northern Alabama, Middle/eastern
    Tennessee, and central/eastern Kentucky over the next 1-2 hours.
    Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms in a weakly unstable
    environment characterized by 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE (per latest
    mesoanalysis) are ongoing from portions of northern Alabama into
    Middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky, with a 47-kt wind gust
    recently reported at Smyrna Airport (KMQY ASOS). Weak effective bulk
    shear of only 20-25 kts is expected to limit overall storm
    organization through this afternoon/evening; however, steep
    low-level lapse rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km will support at least some
    potential for strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts with
    stronger convective cores. Watch issuance is not anticipated given
    only marginal potential for convective organization and magnitude of
    the threat.

    ..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_pemm6dDNLY2d0qngLvgNowf8vW5kaKNyNUUZ9pIk4Pj__VXUUn5RJv13HIiYww_kYe6y753-= k9XUReAkmrSMfJz1CY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 35368428 34718537 34268654 33978743 33978808 34258817
    34858781 35428732 35888684 36378661 37078620 37588595
    37748577 38248485 38228370 37808284 36988282 35918364
    35368428=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)