AWUS01 KWNH 171940
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-180130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0437
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Mogollon Rim and Southeast Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171938Z - 180130Z

Summary...Terrain driven thunderstorms will continue to develop on
the north side of the Mogollon Rim to the Mogollon Mountains of
southwest New Mexico and terrain across southeast Arizona through
the rest of the afternoon. Hourly rainfall of half to one inch per
hour could cause localized flash flooding, particularly for urban
areas and burn scars.

Discussion...Thunderstorms are developing on terrain in
central/southeastern AZ into far southwest NM. Above normal
moisture is from the Pacific/Sea of Cortez with PW generally 2 to
3 sigma above normal. Light westerly deep layer flow should allow
some shear to enable persistence of the activity. Localized
rainfall of 0.4"/hr have been estimated from regional radars.
Given some instability (generally 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) upscale growth
and rate over half and inch per hour can be expected. This would
cause issues in sensitive areas such as burn scars and urban areas.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs highlight the Mogollon Rim area and
southeast AZ through the Tucson metro area through the early
evening with up to 1.5" rainfall totals. Flash flooding is
considered possible through this evening.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4nRikn0gMOJFLDBVeZnhFqJHFzt3tEjOugXHaaXZX1pZUETU7SWqHFg0AfhK6dZvfDcf= AQgpYHOSFGfjjNSD8Y43EEY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35671127 35401074 34680973 34060884 33380847=20
32880899 31910879 31190901 31141018 31351140=20
31671161 32271168 32501119 32641064 33121041=20
33631085 34111210 34561234 35061225 35501150=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 172217
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-180400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0438
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
616 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...East-central Missouri through southern
Illinois/Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172213Z - 180400Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms continue to develop across central
Illinois and eastern Missouri and shift east across Indiana. This
activity will continue to repeat with hourly rainfall of 1.5"
across scattered areas. Scattered occurrences of flash flooding
are expected downstream of current areas through this evening.

Discussion...Heavy supercell thunderstorms continue to train
across eastern MO with a south trend to the generally eastward
motion. Each storm cluster is producing rainfall of 1 to 1.5"/hr.
This was of particular concern over central IL where morning
activity was heaviest. Areas downstream, including the St. Louis
and Indianapolis metro areas, are not as sensitive due to less
rainfall (3hr PW generally around 2"), but the repeating nature of
the activity should still warrant scattered instances of flash
flooding.

Moisture is quite elevated with PW now around 2" across
south-central IL back into MO north of StL. Southwesterly low
level flow should push some 2" PW into southern IN as well.
Instability is abundant to the south of current activity with
SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg in MO/IL and an increasing gradient
across central/southern IN. Ample bulk shear will maintain the
intense supercellular storm modes currently seen.

A dry slot is now seen in WV imagery across IA/northern IL which
is south of the mid-level low center near the southern MN/WI
border. This will fortunately keep a northern edge to the activity
which will work its way over the area of central IL most affected
today.

Recent RRFS runs are quite hot with a multi-inch QPF swath
southeast from current central IL activity through south-central
IN while recent HRRRs have been oriented more eastward with
activity across central IN with lower magnitude than the RRFS. As
has been noted recently, reality should be closer to a blend of
the two hourly CAMs. There is enough confidence to consider the
drawn area likely to see additional flash flooding, probably with
scattered coverage.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8EsdQ7uEV2zTjduJPTJ_EeIY0giHJQBFZvyN72_XhYu7XEg4lowBsXpZtCj-MU4zMfYu= fVwIxtVO4cY4XAEBsgOji8U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...LSX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40558842 40488722 40288491 39098506 38748546=20
38188772 38168975 38359197 39189269 39749174=20
40229009=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 180001
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-180600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0439
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180000Z - 180600Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms grow in coverage and intensity
through this evening over southeast Louisiana. Scattered flash
flooding can be expected through midnight before the focus shifts
farther inland. Expect repeating activity with rain rates of 2"+
per hour and 5"+ totals through midnight.

Discussion...As of 00Z, an MCV associated with a mid-level
circulation east of Arthur is tracking north toward the Louisiana
coast. Extremely high moisture and sufficient instability is
present ahead of this wave with PW around 2.6" (3.5 sigma above
normal) and SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are across southeast Louisiana with rain
estimates generally 1 to 1.5"/hr from KHDC. Activity thus far has
avoided NOLA and Baton Rouge, but increasing coverage and
intensity will bring heightened threats to both these sensitive
areas as well as the rest of southeast LA through the evening
hours.

Notable differences are present in recent HRRR and RRFS output
with the HRRR unreasonably west (given MCV placement) over
south-central LA while the placement in recent RRFS to the east
(including NOLA) are reasonable. Both have 6hr QPF of 5-8" maxes
which is reasonable given the extreme PW and a forcing mechanism
slowly approaching the coast allowing redevelopment/repetition.
QPF of this magnitude (with locally higher 6hr max possible)
brings up a concern for considerable impacts to the flash flood
threat. Antecedent conditions are thankfully rather dry for much
of the area, but this amount of QPF over a potentially larger than
normal area warrants likely and considerable wording for this
flash flood threat through midnight.

The activity will be pushing farther inland overnight, but
additional localized heavy rain should warrant further discussion
for southeast LA let alone into through southern MS.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_pWQYebflhlgWJ3Imtg4uBiiUTu79TXYp3x-h9KHY9rjqydktPVhDAqKlRqy-kokr0gC= b-X82zJyqyUhoS3IKza70mM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31289116 31289039 31068982 30718969 30148983=20
29689003 29279077 29489256 30139259 31059191=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 180105
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0440
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
904 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas and Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180102Z - 180700Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to shift southeast
over parts of Missouri into Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Hourly
rainfall rates up to 1.5" can be expected with an isolated flash
flood threat.

Discussion...Scattered supercells developing ahead of a cold front
over central MO to southeast KS should continue to develop and
locally train and merge into the overnight hours as activity
shifts southeast. Rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr have been estimated
from KSGF where repetition occurred. Abundant instability (SBCAPE
of 2500+ J/kg) and moisture (PW of 1.8 to 2" which are 2 sigma
above normal) ahead of this pre-frontal activity should enable
continued vigorous growth and high intensity.

The 23Z RRFS/HRRR runs are a little underwhelming compared to runs
earlier this afternoon, but the activity continues to grow upscale
per IR imagery and the favorable environment with forcing from the
front should enable continued heavy development. Flash flood
guidance is generally around 2"/hr and 2.5"/3hr. Given the rates
around 1.5"/hr, flash flooding should be limited to isolated areas
where the most repetition/merging occurs. Continued develop
through the overnight is likely, so further discussions may be
warranted.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!63yji4ZsKDTv19X_qfuMcvlmJ1H8PSzDn2mm5sUvAcvTdSvtdMDDj68glaFKjhYA1_R4= RcCkLaddsHwiIUya0XBqUiE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38379320 38299203 37259143 36619331 36459510=20
37129604 37679582 38149469=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180132
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-180700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0441
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
931 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180130Z - 180700Z

Summary...Thunderstorms over the greater Tucson area and isolated
activity to the north/east will continue through the rest of the
evening. Hourly rainfall of half to one inch per hour should
continue to cause localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms are across the greater Tucson metro
with further development over the eastern Mogollon Rim into
southwest NM. Above normal moisture continues to be reinforced
with westerly low level flow along with sufficient instability of
1500 J/kg SBCAPE.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs depict a general nocturnal downward
trend in intensity. Recent RAP runs maintain some instability rest
of the evening, so a re-issuance of this discussion was warranted.
Flash flooding is considered possible rest of this evening.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-n1W-x0m1pRFpySSgd5Fd9_iPp-Bf-Jbt5chcxVlOi12KBG-cur-u7zbvy7ciYJqJ92V= dOh_WhE8zEyj6KQ2Mu2yuSU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34531009 34120934 32160824 31450873 31050932=20
31201122 32071153 32771157 32951092 33511069=20
34161051=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180407
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-180930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0442
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1206 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180405Z - 180930Z

Summary...At least isolated flash flooding appears likely across
portions of the OH Valley through 09Z as bands of west to east
training setup. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher)
should be expected with additional totals of 2 to 4+ inches.

Discussion...0345Z radar imagery showed a west-east axis of
scattered thunderstorms from near the Saint Louis metro into
south-central IL/IN and southwestern OH. These thunderstorms were
located well ahead of a cold front and have resulted in an axis of
rain-cooled air from near STL to CVG. SPC mesoanalysis data from
03Z showed the environment where the thunderstorms were occurring
contained MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg, west of the OH/IN border and
PWs of 1.8 to 2.1 inches. Lower surface dewpoints over OH and
eastern KY were limiting instability over the upper OH Valley at
the moment.

Southwesterly low level flow within the warm sector across the
lower OH Valley will advect low level moisture downstream into the
middle and upper OH Valley over the next 3-6 hours resulting in
increasing instability downstream across portions of OH/KY and WV.
Low level axes of convergence aligned with the mean steering flow
from west to east are expected to allow for pockets of training
across a broad region of the OH Valley. The environment will
easily support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches but localized
hourly rainfall in excess of 2 inches will also be possible as was
observed near Terre Haute, IN earlier in the night. While coverage
may not be widespread, at least isolated areas of flash flooding
are expected through 09Z across a good portion of the OH Valley.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8G9EKtCSP-H86LRP0uSfRkUGotz28QhZ7fv7lHVZ5cUZmvE-pWpZYObVvyy-Af5cjL8s= L_rwNHT_vJKK_hnpqw_gGrg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40068118 39918048 39758009 39478010 38808094=20
38148293 37688594 37288930 37639009 38888967=20
39448824 39718452 39908264=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180553
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-181030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0443
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...southeastern LA into southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180550Z - 181030Z

SUMMARY...Significant rainfall, though perhaps remaining localized
in scale, is expected to impact portions of southeastern LA over
the next 4 hours, possibly impacting portions of southern MS.
Training of heavy rain with hourly rainfall totals over 3 inches
will likely lead to flash flooding with locally considerable
impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from GOES East at 0530Z showed
the mid-level vorticity max associated with former T.S. Arthur
over southwestern LA, with a gradual motion off toward the
northeast. Farther east, a remnant MCV from earlier thunderstorms
was located ~35 miles WSW of New Orleans in infrared and radar
imagery. Radar imagery also showed a WSW to ENE axis of
thunderstorms that has been moving north over the past 3 hours,
located from Terrebonne Parish to ~50 miles south of the western
LA coast, containing MRMS-derived hourly rainfall over 2 to 3
inches. The offshore axis of convection appears to be associated
with low to mid-level convergence located on the southern side of
the broader scale mid-level circulation over southwestern LA.

Tropical moisture was sampled by the 00Z LIX and LCH soundings
with 2.2 to 2.3 inch PWs with wet bulb zero heights of 14 to 16
kft. The tropical airmass will be conducive to efficient rainfall
production and hourly rainfall in excess of 3 inches.

Short term forecasts from the RAP showed the mid-level circulation
over southwestern LA advancing toward southwestern MS over the
next 6 hours which should allow the ongoing convergence axis near
the southern LA coast to lift northward. Model guidance shows the
existing WSW to ENE axis of convergence becoming aligned more SW
to NE through 12Z. This orientation would favor training given
better alignment with the mean steering flow from the southwest.

The environment will be supportive of 3+ inches of rain in an hour
for some locations, although the HRRR has been consistent with
hourly rainfall of 4 to 6+ inches in an hour, which is conceivable
due to the tropical nature of the system. Overlap of these extreme
rain rates atop any population centers could lead to significant
impacts. One area of uncertainty over the next 3-6 hours is the
speed in which the axis of heavy rainfall lifts north, with recent
trends in the HRRR showing a slower northward translation.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8BI4lyu82ejbBThW5vAjuDjTNjo4qsJSFer8uS4fwhfud2QlBDFy-u6T2ARqe0n1-iKk= yc-vkYTABPLCnLTu4Wy96fo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31609106 31468982 31018903 30478873 29628918=20
29138976 28919037 28959150 29379237 29679267=20
30149288 30669283 31179237=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180818
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-181300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0444
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...northeastern OK, southeastern KS, southwestern
MO, northwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180816Z - 181300Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash potential will exist across northeastern
OK, southeastern KS, southwestern/southern MO and
northwestern/northern AR (MOKSAROK) through 13Z. Any training from
west to east will support 1 to 2 in/hr rainfall.

DISCUSSION...08Z radar imagery showed a narrow axis of showers and thunderstorms stretching eastward from Lamar to Salem, MO. This
axis was immediately preceded by an outflow boundary which was
slowly sinking south, followed by a NE to SW oriented cold front
to the north, from central IL into central MO, before becoming
stationary into northern OK. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and PWs of
1.6 to 1.8 inches were estimated via 07Z SPC mesoanalysis data
near and ahead of the outflow boundary, with moisture/instability
falling off sharply to the north of the outflow and cold frontal
boundaries.

Deeper layer mean flow was from the W to WNW, quasi-parallel to
the outflow boundary, supportive of occasional cell training and
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches. 925-850 mb
winds were 15-20 kt from the SSW across northeastern OK and
northern AR into southern MO, supporting overrunning of the
outflow boundary but short term RAP forecast guidance shows these
lower level winds weakening through 12z. Weakening low level flow
coupled with a gradual southward advancement to the cold front and
outflow boundary will support the lingering potential for
occasional bursts of thunderstorms slowly shifting south through
12Z across the MOKSAROK and points east, with west-east training
and hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches.

The potential for flash flooding is expected to remain localized
but should these higher rates of 1-2 inches per hour fall across
any urban or otherwise flash flood prone location, excess runoff
and minor flash flooding may result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6wWEyRHBxXhEwUELxMD1OHDsrrmGdZ7jnaLHyzjEkvc3E9aW6iWN9YEqAfKebRhkfepq= 88PCpcFx0q4QnhsZa2yzsuE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37849208 37459112 36909080 36429121 36279283=20
36319425 36519566 36909612 37549538 37789348=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180907
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-181400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0445
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...central KY/WV northward to OH River

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180900Z - 181400Z

SUMMARY...Training and a few areas of flash flooding are likely to
continue from near the OH River, southward into central KY/WV
through 14Z. Hourly rainfall is expected to range from 1 to 3
inches.

DISCUSSION...0830Z radar imagery showed that a west-east axis of
thunderstorms continued to exhibit areas of training from southern
IN into northern KY and across southern OH. A bookend vortex was
noted to be tracking east across northern KY, just south of
Cincinnati, with a concerning west-east axis of training in its
wake setting up into the Louisville metro. Observed hourly
rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches have been reported within this
axis since 07Z, to the northwest of Louisville. The axis of
thunderstorms was preceded by an elongated outflow boundary with
~500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE in place (highest over western KY, lowest
over WV) according to 08Z SPC mesoanalysis data. PWs were also
near 2 inches along the OH River, supportive of high rain rates.

The outflow boundary and axis of thunderstorms is expected to
advance gradually south over the next 3-4 hours but
slowing/stalling over central and western KY is anticipated. This
will be with strong 40-60 kt of southwesterly to
west-southwesterly flow at 850 mb through at least 12Z, although
weakening of the low level winds is forecast between 12-15Z via
RAP guidance. Continued advection of higher low level moisture
downstream should act to increase MLCAPE locally above 1000 J/kg
for western/central WV through 15Z, increasing the likelihood of
higher intensity rainfall.

West to east training of thunderstorms will continue over the next
3-6 hours across the OH Valley, with hourly rainfall of 1 to 3
inches expected. Additional peak rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
are expected in a few locations through 14Z with a few areas of
flash flooding likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7EvfsY8moZag5nQdcK2so7KXQkGo_8bBPqgVun0CpehkezdHWdCn33RwbWB9klGaz3k3= PFYURDwz3zftr2Ln6qlPGm4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448088 39318030 38837983 38138034 37578105=20
37268206 36998377 36888564 36828785 36698942=20
37488954 37978803 38388645 38948439 39148305=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180943
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-181230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0446
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...New Orleans Metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180935Z - 181230Z

SUMMARY...A band of heavy rain with 2 to 4+ inch per hour rainfall
will likely move across the city of New Orleans in the next 1-2
hours. Flash flooding, some of which could be significant, appears
likely.

DISCUSSION...0925Z Radar imagery from KHDC showed a SW to NE axis
of training thunderstorms, with embedded mini-supercells, over
Terrebonne, Lafourche and St. Charles parishes, slowly advancing
northeastward. This band has been associated with observed hourly
rainfall of 3 to 4.5 inches in Houma, LA via several
Wunderground.com gauge reports over the past 1-2 hours.

An axis of low level convergence is focusing the strong
thunderstorms within a tropical airmass of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
(tall/skinny instability profile) and PWs near 2.6 inches (via 06Z
LIX sounding). As a mid-level circulation between Alexandria and
Baton Rouge translates northeastward over the next 2-3 hours, the
axis of ongoing extreme rainfall over southeastern LA will likely
impact the New Orleans metro with rain rates over 3 in/hr and
possibly the I-12 corridor from Covington to Slidell.
Considerable, life-threatening impacts may result from this axis
of heavy rainfall through 7:30 AM CDT.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6yhsMMy8JGVFQLvLWN4tMXRqdNB7GkyczpbIKwBISiW6WfIvr3dHaVceILSkf3ilOsHY= EUtH-uvySG1m11HG0oXy81g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31088981 30958931 30428918 29838957 29599010=20
29489045 29539071 29859092 30469039=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181024
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-181500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0447
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
623 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...southeastern LA into southern/central MS and
western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181021Z - 181500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding, some
of which are expected to be considerable and life-threatening,
will impact portions of southeastern LA into southern MS over the
next 3-5 hours. Additional flash flooding will be possible into
central MS and western AL. Hourly rainfall in excess of 3 inches
is expected in a few locations.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery showed an axis of training
thunderstorms, producing MRMS-derived 2.5 to 4.5 inch hourly
rainfall over southeastern LA at 10Z, extending from St. Charles
Parish across Lake Pontchartrain into St. Tammany Parish. A second
axis of convection was becoming better organized to the west,
between Lafayette and Alexandria, located near a mid-level
circulation, related to former Tropical Cyclone Arthur. The
environment over southern LA into southern MS contained high PWs
of 2.2 to 2.6 inches and MLCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg. Observed hourly
rainfall in Houma, LA in the 4.0 to 4.5 inch range was observed
earlier this morning, a testament to the potential given the
highly favorable environment for efficient rainfall.

RAP forecast guidance shows the mid-level circulation gradually
advancing downstream to the northeast this morning with the
ongoing axes of low level convergence following suit. This motion
will slowly shift the axis/axes of highest rainfall intensities
toward the NNE/NE into southern and southwestern MS. Peak hourly
rainfall over 3 inches will be likely and with slow movement,
additional rainfall totals of 7-10 inches may occur on a localized
basis through 16Z. This high rainfall totals are likely to produce
scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding, some of which are
likely to be considerable in nature with life-threatening impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9NNRQeXDn00-ELHQk9dEd5yGWaqHGDxG-TFn56I3aSh-UTn22BZWuSdX44hFf7vG5q0f= hZ6wOzcfC6TGGvc2SiA7sn4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33578919 33388799 31988747 30838827 30208955=20
29989099 30119162 30399227 31269243 32089190=20
32699106=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 181234
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-181800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0448
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
833 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas, Southwest Missouri, Northwest
Arkansas, Northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181232Z - 181800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across southeast
Kansas and then move slowly E/SE through the morning. Rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are likely at times, leading to the potential for
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows rapidly
expanding coverage of high reflectivity associated with deepening
thundrestorms over southeast Kansas. These thunderstorms are
generally blossoming within elevated instability of 1500-2000 J/kg
north of a cold front analyzed by WPC. At 700mb, SW flow is slowly
intensifying to 20-30 kts as noted via the SPC RAP mesoanalysis,
which is helping to surge impressive thermodynamics northward
thanks to PWs that are measured by GPS to be above 1.6 inches, or
around the 90th percentile for the date.

The high-res guidance is somewhat under-representing the current
activity this morning, but it is likely that thunderstorms will
continue to expand along and north of this front. As the front
gradually sinks southward into stronger low-level instability,
some additional convection is possible along the accompanying
convergence axis, which will interact with the elevated storms to
produce widespread activity through late morning. With rainfall
rates progged to reach as high as 2"/hr, and repeating or
regenerating storms likely in some areas, this could result in as
much as 3-4" of rainfall (HREF/REFS probabilities for 3+" of rain
10-20%). Admittedly, the coverage of current activity is greater
than many of the high-res models at this time, so locally higher
amounts of rain are also possible.

Recent 7-day rainfall across southeast Kansas has been well below
normal, but in the vicinity of the MO/KS/AR/OK borders, more than
300% of normal rainfall has occurred. This has compromised FFG to
locally 2"/6 hrs which has a 10-30% chance of exceedance. This
indicates at least a local flash flood risk through late morning,
most likely where any repeating storms can occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!92jfNfziMIY-5AnDxbyohPEmvU5kRl278gFCjaXu4H_DNG_f6HH2tx_dh8VfEKptCla3= eZVf8UvbLsXZpyPJ5EbaFGo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38159766 38119626 37859484 37509343 37219245=20
36829169 36349176 36049240 36019365 36089449=20
36239673 36449757 36709832 36899860 37229871=20
37599863 37869833=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 181341
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-181900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0449
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
940 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Bootheel of Missouri through far western Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181339Z - 181900Z

Summary...A narrow line of showers and thunderstorms across
Kentucky this morning will gradually drop southward. Hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely, which through training along
this line could produce 3-4 inches of rainfall. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning indicates a
narrow line of persistent thunderstorms oriented west to east
across northern Kentucky. These thunderstorms have been continuing
now for many hours thanks to continuing convergence along a
WPC-analyzed pre-frontal surface trough, leading to corridors of
2-4" of rainfall within the last 6 hours. Despite some subtle
weakening in the 850mb wind fields as reflected by a drop from
40-50 to 30-40 kts in the RAP analysis, recent hourly rainfall has
still eclipsed 1.25" in many areas along this line. These
impressive rain rates are continuing thanks to still favorable
thermodynamics even within the weakening advection, as MUCAPE
remains above 2000 J/kg coincident with PWs measured via 12Z RAOBs
of 1.75-1.90 inches, or above the 90th percentile for the date.

During the next several hours, the trough should slowly meander
southward across Kentucky while continuing to provide the impetus
for convergence to drive thunderstorm development. Although 850mb
winds are progged to continue to weaken and slowly veer, this will
be somewhat offset by elevated 700mb RH above 70% and a narrow
corridor of near-record PWs to supply moisture for heavy rainfall
rates. As thunderstorms continue to develop on the western edge of
this boundary back towards the Missouri Bootheel (already ongoing
as reflected by increasing glaciation noted in the Euro day-cloud
phase RGB), parallel 850-300mb winds with Corfidi vectors will
drive training of cells to the east, despite generally fast
motions of 30-40 kts. With both HREF and REFS probabilities
indicating a 20-40% chance of 1"+/hr rainfall rates, this training
could result in narrow corridors of 2-4" of addtiional rainfall.

FFG across the region is somewhat compromised, although much of
Kentucky has 0-40cm soil moisture that is only in the 5th-20th
percentile. This will somewhat mitigate the flash flood potential.
However, training of these intense rainfall rates will likely
still overwhelm soils in some areas (especially in urban areas or
the most vulnerable terrain), which has occurred upstream already
this morning. While the intensity and coverage of this activity
may slowly wane in the next several hours, regeneration of
convection appears probable later this aftn, which may necessitate
additional downstream MPDs later today.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6WBeib65eAp42g9b4k8aDBDeF8IZQrcTx_GTkHZvbiBF28qdVKUmkOm_8fwo21midrIL= Tu-nmvDw-vWNS82BR5bnTQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38198376 38178275 37988174 37708121 37428127=20
37068179 36898268 36808397 36688564 36608777=20
36858954 37058983 37338961 37538895 37758818=20
37878749 38098587 38178487=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 181451
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-182000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0450
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1050 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...eastern Louisiana, southern and central
Mississippi, southwest Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181447Z - 182000Z

Summary...Life-threatening and locally catastrophic flash flooding
likely to continue today across portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi, potentially lifting into Alabama this afternoon.
Convergent rain bands with 3-5"/hr rainfall rates are likely,
which through training could produce 5-10" of rain through the
aftn. This will cause widespread flash flooding, with locally
catastrophic impacts possible where training occurs over already
saturated soils.

Discussion...Flash flooding is becoming widespread and significant
this morning, with flash flood emergencies ongoing across
Avoyelles Parish, Louisiana and Pearl River County, Mississippi.
In these areas, morning rainfall has already been estimated via
MRMS above 9", with multiple measurements above 11" recorded via
local mesonet sites.

This rainfall is associated with a surface low accompanying the
remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur which dissipated in southeast TX
last evening. However, impressive kinematics and thermodynamics
persist, leading to the intense rainfall ongoing this morning.
850mb winds southeast of the low center are measured via VWPs and
the RAP analysis to be 45-50 kts, more than 1.5x the mean
850-300mb wind. This setup is not only reflective of impressive
ascent driven by convergence, but also is leading to robust
thermodynamic advection as PWs measured by GPS above 2.3" (a daily
record) are pushed northeastward on this low-level inflow. At the
same time, a plume of increasing MLCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) will
supply ample instability to maintain these intense rain rates,
especially where convergence maximizes along any inflow/convergent
bands SE of the remnant low center. This is already materializing
as reflected by the recent radar mosaic showing two distinct bands
(one across south-central LA and another in eastern LA through
southern MS) with hourly MRMS rainfall rates of 3-4"/hr.

As the aftn progresses the surface low should slowly move
northeast and may weaken, but the impressive mesoscale (and
synoptic due to height falls and upper diffluence) ascent will
continue to tap the record thermodynamics to produce heavy
rainfall. The high-res guidance is in good agreement that an
expansive area of 3-5" of rain will occur through late this aftn,
with locally as much as 8-10" possible within the most persistent
convergence. While the antecedent conditions are already favorable
for flash flooding due to 0-40cm soil moisture that is above the
95th percentile, it is within these convergent bands, with the
prolonged training, where the most dangerous, and potentially
catastrophic, flash flooding will occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-LgcBJIYbznfdPHIOShIL1qWiq7HJiG0cyt3CYgoGM4kx9Vdj5U1lDHhad-OstoSMEvt= 2dn1hJad12y_HTXKOZQe-68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33368902 33348796 32588683 31678645 30888674=20
30618737 30308832 30128929 30028999 30049071=20
30089141 30219207 30479262 30839279 31089264=20
31139255 31989131 32859008=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 181645
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0451
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1244 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Upstate New York, Central and Northern New
England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181700Z - 182300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand and exhibit
short-term training across Upstate New York and New England this
afternoon. Rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr are likely at times,
leading to 2-3" of rainfall with locally higher amounts. This may
result in instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The experimental GOES-E day cloud phase imagery this
afternoon shows rapid expansion of glaciating clouds across
Upstate New York and into northern New England. This development
is associated with a rapid expansion of convection noted in the
regional radar mosaic, developing within impressive WAA well
downstream of a cold front draped over Lake Erie.

The environment downstream of this front is, and will remain,
extremely favorable for heavy rainfall within thunderstorms.
Recent RAP analyzed MLCAPE has exceeded 500 J/kg coincident with
PWs of 1.4 to 1.5 inches to provide robust thermodynamics. Into
this environment, forcing is intensifying through low-level
convergence ahead of the front, overlapped by strengthening upper
diffluence in the vicinity of a northeast-oriented upper jet
streak. Recent MRMS estimated 1-hr rainfall has been generally
0.75 to 1.00 inches, but storm motions have limited total rainfall
to prevent any notable impacts thus far.

In the next few hours, thunderstorm development is expected to
increased across central and northern New England, while lines of
thunderstorms ahead of the front pivot eastward. HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1+"/hr rainfall peaks around 22Z at over 60% in
VT/NH, which will occur in tandem with the greatest training
potential as Corfidi vectors and 0-6km mean winds become parallel.
This will support the potential for prolonged periods of rainfall
with these impressive rates, and total rainfall could exceed 3"
(10-20% chance from the HREF). This creates a 10-30% chance of
exceeding the 3-hr FFG through this evening, with the greatest
chance for any flash flood impacts likely across parts of VT/NH
where the highest 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles from NASA SPoRT
overlap with the more vulnerable terrain features.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8VoyaKFoyHL37xts8ym-CeTQPxbvGeej-mNvYi56LT0LDVXcYYKJbw4FqPgynXTx9Ghb= zhAr8OGmswRjhfNPV3u7V4A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46476946 46106903 45416904 44476957 43807000=20
43287064 42667191 42387320 42267461 42257544=20
42477573 43227538 43927487 44567420 45057333=20
45197213 45397144 45847090 46237055 46467013=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 181747
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0452
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181745Z - 182300Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will continue
across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma through this
the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-1.5"/hr are likely, leading to
additional rainfall of 2-3". This could produce instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms noted via the regional
radar mosaic this afternoon continue to expand along and just
north of a stationary front analyzed by WPC. Along this boundary,
moisture confluence is occurring as reflected by converging 850mb
wind streams from the ENE (north) and ESE (south). This confluence
is pushing PWs to above 1.8 inches as measured by GPS, which is
well above the 90th percentile for the date according to the SPC
sounding climatology. Aloft, flow at 700mb continues to be S/SW,
providing modest upslope ascent while providing sufficient
thermodynamic advection (RH above 70% and MUCAPE above 2000 J/kg)
to help continue this activity. Recent rainfall rates as measured
by MRMS have been 1.25 to 1.5 inches as storms drift slowly E/SE
across the area.

The high-res guidance is generally struggling to capture the
ongoing elevated activity, so confidence is modest as to the
evolution over the next several hours. However, the environment is
changing only modestly, so persistence of this activity with a
slow translation to the south is the most likely outcome through
the afternoon. With continued moisture confluence into the
boundary supporting elevated PWs, and 0-6km bulk shear rising to
35-50 kts, any storms that develop could organize into clusters
and enhance rainfall rates to as much as 1.5"/hr this aftn. At the
same time, 850mb winds of 15-25 kts from the east will be
generally opposite the mean 850-300mb winds, helping Corfidi
vectors to collapse to just around 5-10 kts. This indicates slow
moving storms to the S/SE, allowing these intense rain rates to
produce locally 2-3" of rainfall.

Outside of areas that have already received heavy rain today,
soils are generally dry (0-40cm soil moisture percentiles from
NASA SPoRT generally just 5-20%). This will somewhat offset the
flash flood potential. However, a few flash flood warnings have
already been issued this morning, which suggests additional flash
flooding is possible where any of these slow moving storms produce
the most intense rainfall, even across any of these drier soils.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7ZybLqQgTfRz9unYeWZQrOkAyP3gNxNE0ZTK3WbwoUB0KxmrjVRNNkqnjUJSHOhAV2kf= 9RCNULBcWAgPDCZcjCRAPlw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38209640 38189578 38069506 37659462 37199458=20
36849465 36369487 36069569 35989659 36019747=20
36189821 36509886 36819933 37229952 37569930=20
37909818 38029750=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 181836
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0453
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast into Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181833Z - 182345Z

Summary...Life-threatening and locally catastrophic flash flooding
continues along the central Gulf Coast northeast of New Orleans
through southern Alabama with additional heavy rain expanding into
eastern Georgia rest of the afternoon. Convergent rain bands with
3 to 4"/hr rainfall rates are likely to persist with additional 5
to 10"+ forecast into the evening. Widespread flash flooding, with
locally catastrophic impacts likely where this extreme band
persists occurs.

Discussion...As of 1830Z, an extreme rainband over southern MS
extending northeast just north of Mobile, AL with more scattered
heavy rain over the rest of southern AL. Hourly rainfall of 3 to
4" are estimated from KMOB and KHDC as the band moves along its
axis of orientation. Redevelopment has been occurring near New
Orleans, though that focus has shifted east of that vulnerable
metro area.

Extreme moisture of 2.6" PW is over southern MS with a gradient to
2.2" by the southern AL/GA border. This coastal area is under the
mid-level wave that remained east of Arthur and continues to drift
northeast. MCVs from other activity are farther nor over MS and
are helping to maintain focus for this band near the coast. 40kt
SSWly low level flow will maintain this extreme moisture advection
and an instability gradient of 3000 J/kg along the AL/FL Panhandle
coast to 1500 J/kg over south-central MS will help maintain this
extreme repeating band as it slowly shifts northeast.

Considerable flash flooding can be considered anywhere under this
heavy band with localized catastrophic where it persists longest
(with rainfall exceeding 10") over the most sensitive metro areas.
Areas toward the AL/GA border will see general flash flooding at
first, but will see prolonged intense rainfall later this evening
which will be addressed in followup discussions. Continued flash
flooding to the north of these areas associated with the MCVs will
be addressed separately.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9CC-5XeN443egHS47DdSfC6-cgwKrDdLri9Kcqa4KTrjAlDakX2lA7idF08UsFoSoTRX= BNfmGOafI54BP-z_Bs-ewBg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33398425 31758365 30908507 30488670 30108844=20
29658960 29938993 31188915 32688747 33358591=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 181841
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0454
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...southern Kentucky, Tennessee, far southwest
Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181839Z - 190030Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across southern
Kentucky and northern Tennessee through the afternoon. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, with briefly higher rates possible.
These storms will move slowly, leading to 2-4" of rainfall with
localized higher amounts possible. This may cause flash flooding.

Discussion...An interesting synoptic evolution favorable for heavy
rainfall is developing across portions of Kentucky and Tennessee
this afternoon. The remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur are spinning
over LA/MS, with an expansive tropical moisture plume
characterized by PWs above 2 inches (well above the 90th
percentile for the date, and daily records in some areas) surging
northward into TN coincident with elevated MLCAPE of 2000-2500
J/kg. Farther north, a cold front analyzed by WPC is drifting
southeast across KY, and impinging into this increasingly moist
and unstable environment, leading to regeneration of convection
across the area.

The latest regional radar mosaic indicates generally modest
reflectivity in two parallel lines from far western TN through far
western VA. However, the experimental GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB
suggests an expansion of rapid glaciation/deepening storms that
may not be reflected in radar quite yet. This is additionally
confirmed by higher Lightning-Cast probabilities, and it appears
the rapid intensification of convection progged earlier by the
HRRR is beginning. While the guidance has backed off slightly into
how robustly this convection will expand/intensify, the
destabilizing and moistening column surging northward and
interacting with the southward advancing front should result in
widespread thunderstorm activity into the evening.

As storms develop along both convergence axes, there should be
some interaction into a more cohesive single line from western TN
into southeast KY. Storms that develop along this interface will
have robust thermodynamics to support rainfall rates of 2+"/hr
(10-30% chance from the HREF), and these cells will move slowly
and train west to east on 0-6km mean winds of just 5-10 kts. This
could rapidly become an increasing flash flood risk, as these
intense rates moving slowly result in narrow corridors of 6-hr
accumulation exceeding 3" (60% chance HREF, 80% chance REFS) and
even 5" (20% chance HREF, 30% chance REFS).

Despite the uncertainty in the guidance due to inconsistent
trends, and relatively dry antecedent conditions (0-40cm soil
moisture around the 10th percentile), this evolution could support
at least isolated instances of flash flooding, especially under
the slowest moving cells or should any storm move atop the more
urban areas.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8RePcB2k6xOpPHvIfDpqb6YP2ZcsQDLbXoPe3Kv9jNCM2Mu_NcrmC3-KhwWESzTDcUra= ApHt60b91YXm5i8r6bVbwbw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37488407 37488309 37458238 37388201 37308185=20
37068179 36778183 36488215 36088321 35938399=20
35788529 35688656 35538794 35258896 35058961=20
35079006 35319018 35758997 36628903 36908802=20
37388558=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 181947
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-190045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0455
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Mississippi and Northern Alabama to southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181944Z - 190045Z

Summary...Corridor of scattered repeating heavy rain north of the
main axis will continue from central Mississippi across northern
Alabama into eastern Tennessee and northwest Georgia through this
evening. Expect scattered flash flooding in central Mississippi,
more isolated coverage northeast of there.

Discussion...The north side of the main heavy rain axis near the
central Gulf Coast continues to see repeating heavy rain from
interactions with MCVs in AL and additional thunderstorm clusters=20
over northwest GA. This activity will continue to shift northeast
with the low level remnants of Arthur. Abundant moisture is
associated with the MCVs with PW around 2.5", then there is a
gradient to 1.8" PW in the terrain of the southern Appalachians.
24-35kt southerly flow will allow this moisture max to shift
northeast and potentially expand the area of repeating heavy rain
across northern AL into eastern TN. The limiting factor will be
instability which is lower along the MS/AL border in the current
stratiform region. This area of reduced instability should track
northeast with the high PW pool. However, any instability should
allow heavy rain given deep warm rain processes.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate a threat for 2-5" rainfall
maxima through 01Z over north-central AL with more scattered 1-3"
totals elsewhere in this discussion area. Flash flood guidance is
lowered in east-central MS where heavy rain has occurred over the
past day and generally around 2"/hr and 3"/3hr over north-central
AL, northwest GA and far eastern TN. Scattered flash flooding can
be expected in eastern MS where continued development associated
with an MCV should occur with more isolated flash flooding over
northern AL, areas in GA northwest of Atlanta, and into eastern TN.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8aKQiJOWq19ZWLhBSZWguJLqDyUShpGcKxY_mn6Cpx9vlqwDcuSakdZG7KnbeBoRPzN6= iQd-ys3yttU_-805JFLm4XQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...MOB...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35928336 35228377 33648497 32748707 31838833=20
31248936 31798979 32648896 34688671 35808528=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182136
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-190235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0456
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Georgia and South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182135Z - 190235Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to move northeast from
Georgia through South Carolina this evening. Meanwhile the main
axis of heavy rain currently over southern Alabama will continue
to shift northeast into central Georgia. Flash flooding should
remain localized this evening before becoming more widespread
overnight.

Discussion...Thunderstorms continue to develop in a tropical plume
over the Southeast late this afternoon. Multi-cell clusters over central/eastern Georgia with hourly rainfall estimates of 1-2"
will push across South Carolina this evening where additional
activity is developing. Furthermore, the main axis of repeating
heavy rain inland from the Gulf coast continues to slowly work its
way across the FL Panhandle/southern AL and will track across
southern GA this evening. PW of 2 to 2.3" is present in this plume
which along with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will continue to promote
heavy thunderstorm development. Effective bulk shear around 25kt
will keep this activity moving somewhat though renewed development
and cell mergers will make for local FFG exceedances. FFG is
generally 2.5"/hr over central GA/Midlands of SC and closer to
3"/hr over southern GA/Lowcountry of SC. Isolated flash flooding
is possible into this evening with more widespread coverage
overnight as activity from near the Gulf Coast shifts across this
area. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate a risk for localized
streaks of 1-4" through 03Z. These may impact the Atlanta and
Columbia metro areas as well as other more sensitive locations
such as Augusta and Greenville.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4yPGp9-uvzrz-C0NuS0UJcV5tFEXu8A4vo2RwuVqn08QtqZuwq6YgRnNOS38FYpq3sGn= cnf5xAWe7fu1kq5ZuyE2A6Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...MRX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35638340 35308102 34367986 33078057 32208184=20
31538378 32438495 33498499 34298449 35188378=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182342
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-190500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0457
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
740 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 182339Z - 190500Z

Summary...Another round of life-threatening and locally
catastrophic flash flooding continues just inland from the central
Gulf Coast over southern Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle through midnight. Convergent rain bands with 2 to 4"/hr
rainfall rates are likely to persist with additional 4 to 8"+
forecast through midnight. Widespread flash flooding resumes, with
locally catastrophic impacts likely where these heavy rates
persist and overlap heavy rainfall from the past 12hrs. extreme
band persists occurs.

Discussion...As of 2330Z, two particularly heavy clusters of
thunderstorms are over southern MS and southern AL with hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3" estimated from KMOB with an eastward motion.
These developed in the lee of the previous slow moving line that
worked east over southern AL/FL Panhandle this afternoon. Rain
rates around 1.5"/hr are see on the eastern AL/FL border from the
last part of the original band. This activity is falling over
areas that already received 4 to 14" in the past 12hrs,
particularly over southern MS.

The remnant low from Arthur is over central AL with a trough and
focus for development extending southwest where this new
development is. Convergence along this boundary is occurring from
35kt SWly flow from the Gulf. PW of 2.4" is pooling along this
trough and will continue to feed very heavy rainfall.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate several more inches of rainfall
along this corridor through 04Z with estimates in the 4-8" range.
This will cause widespread considerable flash flooding with
locally catastrophic impacts, particularly where the highest
amounts fall and where any elevated amounts fall over areas that
already received multiple inches. CAMs indicate activity waning
after midnight, though that will need to be monitored as the
evening progresses given the slow motion of the Arthur remnants.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-IT_mJqM5o-VSS_qM5XihI8FSw2A5XY189A5JP-NJ9yyqvB3eU_6WL1_Y4HhkX1Md9fs= x0HzsEPpeAYvn-vKsMPg5g8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32698481 31748385 30668419 30278485 30178565=20
30128745 30088874 30178969 30869036 31269017=20
31538917 32128735 32648636=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190045
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-190545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0458
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190043Z - 190545Z

Summary...Heavy showers and thunderstorms over portions of the
southern Appalachians onto the North Carolina Piedmont will
persist into the overnight. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely
to persist with an additional 2-4" over a few hours should cause
localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered heavy thunderstorms over southwestern VA to north-central NC will continue to shift northeast this evening.
Rainfall rates of 2"/hr south of Mt Airy NC which is just east
where a few inches fell since this afternoon. Further development
in this area could continue to occur in this warm sector on the
leading edge of the tropical plume ahead of the remnants of
Arthur. PW over central NC is around 2" which could tick higher
rest of this evening.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate a few areas of 2-4" over this
area through midnight. Localized flash flooding is probable to
continue. Additional rainfall late tonight could warrant further
discussions overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6tlq0gQ-SrtwP8li4OyLQ-HnkNWcB8QBPK4gdhvIulsYaef2GrXySHkxPpcAvpsydFrC= Cn7K7N3aHbYLOn0cefRencI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37678187 37198035 36687937 36247859 35607893=20
35487992 35168096 35608289 36488379 37278307=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190519
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0459
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
118 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...southern MS/AL/GA into FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190516Z - 191000Z

SUMMARY...At least isolated areas of renewed flash flooding are
expected from portions of southern MS into southern AL,
southwestern GA and the FL Panhandle. 1-2 in/hr rates are most
likely, but embedded and isolated 2-4 in/hr rates will also be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Scattered elevated thunderstorms were observed on
radar imagery from south-central MS into south-central AL at
0450Z, located mostly north of a U-shaped outflow boundary that
extended from southern GA to the offshore waters of the western FL
Panhandle and back inland into south-central MS. While locations
north of the outflow boundary were stable with respect to
surface-based parcels, elevated instability of 500 to 1500 J/kg
remained in place from south-central MS into southwestern GA along
with high PWs of 2.0 to 2.4 inches (SPC mesoanalysis and GPS
data).

Low level confluent flow, located approximately 50-100 miles
inland of the central Gulf Coast, was observed in the 925-850 mb
layer. This low level confluence was located in the wake of the
remnant mid-level circulation from Arthur (currently over
northeastern GA). Short term forecasts from the RAP show the axis
of elevated low level confluence becoming better defined over
southern AL over the next 3-5 hours, roughly aligned with the mean
steering flow. While the low level convergence axis does not at
this time appear to favor a single continuous axis of elevated
thunderstorms, there should be at least a broken axis of
thunderstorms that may oscillate in intensity with embedded areas
of training. Some upper level jet support in the form of
right-entrance region ascent over southern AL/GA may aid with
larger scale lift. Due to heavy rain and ongoing flooding over
portions of the area, additional heavy rain will likely renew ares
of flash flooding across the region.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ETSDH1Dd0niJsq9wkabs-wURQwzcYHhcX-d4k-s1h86l9Wei6hq-UfsS_048uRfmlNf= A5i4rjePD2l3c3Nd-fVxnw8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...JAX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32418801 32408664 32348553 32198364 32128274=20
30908250 30198395 29958595 30168769 31118895=20
31388977 31959000 32308904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190706
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-191300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0460
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...TX Panhandle, northwestern TX into southwestern
OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190704Z - 191300Z

SUMMARY...The expanding coverage of slow moving thunderstorms
through early morning may result in a few areas of flash flooding
across portions of the TX Panhandle into northwestern TX into
southwestern OK. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher
possible) is expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour ending at 0645Z, elevated
thunderstorms have become better organized over northwestern TX
into the southern TX Panhandle and southwestern OK. Low level
advection of moisture over a quasi-stationary front has resulted
in the erosion of CIN beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to
8.5 C/km) present across the head waters of the Red River. MUCAPE
across this region of the southern Plains was moderately strong at
2000-4000 M/kg and PWs were high at 1.5 to 2.0 inches (06Z SPC
mesoanalysis). Meanwhile, weak steering flow was resulting in slow
cell motions of less than 10 kt.

RAP forecast showed that 850 mb winds of ~30 kt from the S to SE
over northwestern TX will weaken through 12Z but coverage of
storms is likely to increase before then. The expected increasing
coverage of cells could result in a a few small semi-organized
clusters with propagation toward the ESE or SE. Slow movement and
brief training is likely to result in hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches in a few locations but isolated higher rates will be
possible as well. The result could be isolated to widely scattered
coverage of flash flooding through 13Z with 2 to 4+ inches of
storm total rainfall.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_34k5TeeeRSNMAj-5HAGmmEFNoFhRcGa7qJKU6ixWF9VI80XFlHkPEDKicLSw7I5nsfp= KXXNPUcrOXQxMIUHDPmwHU4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35700095 35669953 35389809 34679622 33719640=20
33389786 32729888 32829939 33309967 33840015=20
34150101 34600174 35330155=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191009
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0461
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
608 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern/central/northern TX into
southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191005Z - 191515Z

SUMMARY..Slow moving thunderstorms may result in widely scattered
areas of flash flooding from southwestern to central to northern
TX into southern OK through 15Z. Rainfall totals of 3 to 4+ inches
are expected.

DISCUSSION...0945Z radar imagery over OK/TX showed two regions of thunderstorms. The first was across the southeastern TX Panhandle
into southwestern OK and northern TX, bisecting a quasi-stationary
front draped from the Red River into southwestern TX. The second
area of thunderstorms was across the Trans Pecos region, also near
the front, out ahead of a slowly eastward advancing upper level
shortwave trough across far western TX/southeastern NM. Both
regions of thunderstorms were located near a gradient in
instability with strong MLCAPE values of 2000 to 4000+ J/kg
estimated via SPC mesoanalysis data from near Del Rio to Abilene
to Dallas/Fort Worth. In addition, weak deep layer steering flow
was resulting in slow storm motions and MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall between 1 and 3 inches.

A gradual eastward movement to the somewhat disorganized upper
level trough over western TX/NM should provide added ascent into
portions of central TX this morning, likely resulting in an
increase in thunderstorm coverage from 12Z-15Z. The greatest
coverage is expected to be from northern TX into southern OK where
ongoing convection is most robust with embedded mesocyclones and
stronger low level convergence in place. However, at least
scattered coverage of thunderstorms is expected to develop farther
south as well. Given forcing for ascent is not very organized and
deep layer shear is poor, storm organization and motions will be
somewhat chaotic, with an overall eastward translation of heavy
rain anticipated through the morning hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KhezxR7uF3Aebz5SEWSbHoJWrJ0eTDlmkCBt55FoLpuq9XBWp8ExePwGl7U_cJDcRva= TT26X0MvxuqXtFlU-fgA0q0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...LUB...LZK...MAF...OUN...SHV...
SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35459963 35449833 35159673 34819557 34389469=20
34099426 33789411 33439421 33159454 33029489=20
32989540 32879577 32689635 31859740 30889846=20
30109941 29570019 29540134 30020187 30620171=20
31350043 32309945 32799883 33299880 33669906=20
33899965 34200027 34570053 35130030=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191137
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-191730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0462
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191130Z - 191730Z

SUMMARY...Blossoming thunderstorms will produce excessive rainfall
rates up to 3"/hr at times this morning. Flash flooding is likely
with locally significant flash flooding possible due to a
combination of excessive rainfall rates over highly saturated
soils.

DISCUSSION...A 6-hr RTMA theta-e loop shows a rain cooled air-mass
located just north of a remnant outflow boundary that is
positioned from the MS Delta region on south and east into the FL
Panhandle. There remains an abundance of 1000-850mb moisture in
addition to upper 70s surface dew points along the Gulf Coast. An
IVT out of the western Gulf continues to funnel 925-850mb moisture
into the Deep South at the same time as RAP forecast guidance
shows NWrly 850-500mb streamlines to the north converge with SWrly
850-500mb flow to the south. PWs remain around 2.25" with locally
higher values present and MLCAPE >2,000 J/kg will stick around
this morning and into the early afternoon.

With an outflow boundary nearby acting as a trigger, and mid-upper
level confluence increasing this morning, the stage is set for
renewed rounds of highly efficient thunderstorms within an area of
the South that needs no more rainfall. 1-hr FFGs this morning are
<0.75" in parts of southern MS, much of southern AL, and as far
east as southwest GA. 06Z HREF probabilities between 12-18Z are
showing southern AL and the FL Panhandle as having
moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for >3" of rainfall during that
time, with low-to-moderate chances (20-40%) for totals topping 5". Thunderstorms will develop as far west as the MS River Delta
region, closer to the origins of the mid-upper level convergence
axis this morning. 06Z HREF probabilities show moderate chances
(40-60%) for rainfall totals >3" there, but note FFGs are not
nearly as low as their neighbors to the east. Still, the
atmosphere contains similar elevated moisture content and plenty
of instability, making flash flooding a concern in those areas
farther west.

Between these totals and the FFGs mentioned, there is concern for
more areas of flash flooding to unfold this morning. The areas of
greatest concern are southern MS and southern AL where rainfall
totals range anywhere from as low as a couple inches in more
northern locations of the highlighted area to over 10" north of
the I-10 corridor. Portions of southern MS and southern AL are so
sensitive that 2"/hr rainfall rates will have no trouble causing
rapid water rises and become treacherous along roadways that
border creeks or drain poorly. Thunderstorms should start to
dissipate and decrease in coverage this afternoon as the
atmosphere becomes over-worked and low-level moisture transport
lessens, but until then, additional flash flooding is expected.
Given the lingering effects from yesterday's tremendous rainfall,
locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding is
possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9nbuMDGbA2j95fSW8oBINDpaQZbMh_hdB2urs_K0vAre-5FmljyiWoWyHw6eBkxfuIg8= Yq46yJNfwUHyBrQQp5tXg4g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33309143 32688892 32488687 32448500 32278367=20
31978305 31408325 30378378 30008485 30378656=20
30778843 31328987 31609076 32279174=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191315
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-191830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0463
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...ArkLaTex...Southern AR...Northern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191315Z - 191830Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming along a frontal boundary ahead
of an approaching MCS. Rainfall rates between 2-3"/hr may lead to
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms have developed along a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary oriented W-E along the LA/AR
border. 925mb winds out of the south are oriented orthogonally to
the boundary and are continuing to deliver anomalous low-level
moisture into the region. PWs will increase as the MCS approaches
with values approaching 2.25" this morning. RAP mesoanalysis shows
between 2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE available to developing storms
along and south of the theta-e gradient. These storms are forming
ahead of an approaching MCS where cloud tops over the Red River
continue to cool. RAP forecasts show 25-30 kts of effective bulk
shear will accompany the MCS and help to maintain the complex as
it reaches the ArkLaTex this morning.

NASA SPoRT-LIS shows 0-10cm soil moisture percentiles are
generally on the dry side (between 2-10 percentiles) so soils will
take some time to saturate initially. That said, the storms ahead
of the MCS will help to saturate soils ahead of the MCS and the
outflow in advance of the MCS could trigger additional storms on
the southern flank of the MLCAPE gradient. The amount of
instability and moisture referenced above would support up to
3"/hr rainfall rates, which is shown in 06Z HREF probabilistic
guidance to have some merit (10-30% chances for >3/hr QPF through
18Z). The initial soil conditions and progression of the MCS
should help to limit the areal extent of the flash flood
potential, but areas of southern AR and northern LA where initial
storms are slow moving will help to prime soils in advance of the
MCS. Flash flooding is possible this morning and into the early
afternoon

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!65NZh7CW5CYj3Khj7ihrZztiHKARQOJBAABeEMHnZL_3b7DDnH6SkNWgM7Ox8G14MYwJ= ilQ8S9eGFtWA2plmN340scQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33909408 33879300 33659191 33279171 32839189=20
32409207 32339328 32579439 33109457=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191434
FFGMPD
GAZ000-191845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0464
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1032 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Southeast GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191430Z - 191845Z

SUMMARY...Repeating rounds of thunderstorms with a history of
causing flash flooding will continue for a couple more hours.
Additional flash flooding is likely with locally considerable
impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar continues to depict training segments
of thunderstorms over southeast GA this morning. This is due to=20
NWrly winds over the Mid-South and SWrly flow over the Gulf
converging aloft within an environment that contains >2.2" PWs and
MLCAPE of at least 1,000 J/kg. RAP forecasts show this convergence
of deep moist convection will linger for another hour or so while
outflow from this complex eventually propagates south. Storms will
eventually taper off in the harder hit areas, but grow southward
along the outflow boundary closer to the FL/GA line. Radar
estimates show at least 2-3" of rainfall have fallen in some
areas, and one LSR near Nicholls reported 2.45" of rain in one
hour.

Expect another hour or two of 2-3"/hr max rainfall rates, which is
likely to generate additional flash flooding this morning and
through midday. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4" are likely
through early afternoon. Given the nature of these rates and soils
rapidly moistening, locally considerable flash flooding; including
flooded roadways in areas that drain poorly, is possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_H3Fly4zpGkdlHJWqLa-hHvQuXP2jJYpbxJOKW1RCFS-B9cEOLiEzJX22PcPMhLEBxL4= cYQ6YxSTnK1Ns2Avylq_xvc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31918274 31708171 31358137 30948142 30818190=20
30838249 30928301 31238343 31888322=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191508
FFGMPD
TXZ000-192030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0465
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1107 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191500Z - 192030Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms associated with a pair of MCS will push
through the I-35 corridor this morning. Storms are also ongoing
south of I-20 this morning. Additional flash flooding is likely
through midday with storms over urbanized communities most at-risk.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite imagery showed
a pair of thunderstorm complexes responsible for areas of flash
flooding in portions of central TX this morning. The leading edge
of these MCSs are denoted by outflow boundaries; one along the
I-35 corridor south of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, and
another exiting the Edwards Plateau. The environment ahead of
these storms does have plenty of instability (RAP mesoanalysis
shows >2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and PWs just short of 2.0". There is
some CIN ahead of these boundaries and 0-6km vertical wind shear
is lighter. This forces storms to be more reliant upon the
strength of their current cold pools and the outflows for
additional development. Meanwhile, a closed 700mb low north of San
Angelo and east of Midland is continuing to trigger storms along
its eastern and northern flanks, which RAP guidance shows will
continue for a couple more hours.

CAMs such as the RRFS and the HRRR all show storms being on the
progressive side, which will help to limit areal extent of the
flash flood threat. However, the more urbanized I-35 corridor with
its greater concentration of hydrophobic surfaces does pose a
concern for increased run-off. RAP mesoanalysis also shows
surface-850mb winds in South TX will intersect these outflows and
continue to provide a trigger at low-level for additional
thunderstorm development. Farther north and west, soils have
saturated more and the slower progression of the storms near the
700mb low will provide a suitable environment for additional flash
flooding. Given these storms have a history of causing flash
flooding, and satellite/radar showing no signs of storms tapering
off within the next hour or so, additional flash flooding is
likely across central Texas through midday.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!960jI6a5846vxxiHHjE0lzW1s2jAlk4zjxTQLRp0-C3dRbDPn9s7QlXkkoDVWhGdITGN= pcW_r1BBFLzIgir9s6UEOKY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32910015 32899998 32839946 32659906 32479836=20
32429781 32499727 32659672 32619607 32479583=20
32159580 31819607 31389648 30879688 30449739=20
29999781 29219880 28619958 28330001 28360059=20
28530085 29020114 29470106 29860091 30360041=20
30740027 31090015 31370027 31660049 31910074=20
32190088 32460096 32640092 32900062=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191750
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0466
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191750Z - 192330Z

SUMMARY...A training band of strong thunderstorms containing up to
3"/hr rainfall rates will continue to produce areas of flash
flooding this afternoon. Significant and life-threatening flash
flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...The convergent flow pattern responsible for this
morning's flash flooding from MS to southern GA continues to help
regenerate thunderstorms early this afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis
shows a ribbon of >2.2" PWs that coincides along a NW-SE oriented
MLCAPE gradient. MLCAPE on the southern flank of the gradient is
nearing 3,000 J/kg, and as storms produce outflows and they
propagate south, additional storms will flare up over the flooded
areas north of I-10. 15-minute MRMS radar estimates are
highlighting rates of at least 0.5" in the storms over southern
AL, suggesting at least 2"/hr rates are ongoing. There have been
some instances where hourly rainfall totals have approached 3" as
well earlier this morning. These kind of excessive rates rates
will continue to cause additional flash flooding with locally
significant and life-threatening flooding possible where training
thunderstorms occur.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6l6sSJq9I7G0k3om8c_1rUTRwQyOI-94n9OD7xXEnMJm1SUBx9CjT1h3qzGtLo9vnlhz= Nu5bR70gN24b9ROibI8DPQ8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33108919 32848828 32338703 32118630 31818547=20
31658477 31578446 31368365 30458360 30308424=20
30398524 30698663 31038835 31458940 32029014=20
32579056 32919055 33098990=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191750
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-192049-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0467
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
150 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...near the FL/GA border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191749Z - 192049Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rains are drifting
south into northeast FL. Hourly rain amounts to 3" could lead to
flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.

Discussion...Heavy rains are dropping south in the vicinity of a
baroclinic trough extending west-southwest of what used to be
Tropical Storm Arthur. A shortwave moving through the
Mid-South/TN is leading to difluence aloft. Low-level confluence
exists across the area. Precipitable water values are ~2.25" ML
CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg exists here. Effective bulk shear is near
25 kts.

The 12z HREF seems to have some handle on the convective
progression. The expectation is that convection moving in from
the FL Big Bend will initially help hold up the southward
progression long enough to lead to hourly rain amounts to 3".=20
Based on the degree of effective bulk shear, some level of
convective organization is possible. Since flash flood guidance
values are high, problems should be mostly constrained to urban
areas. Radar reflectivity trends suggest a few hours of heavy
rain concerns, so used a three hour horizon.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!86vKmGVHH7ZwrPGir0yG6abo81dDRruIn3vlB3PFNDT3h_-CNyA1YcpOYbPNEC1iaRjo= Noe2WTHIkG1EpgnMK07jb_U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31228298 30838153 30448135 29818117 29578137=20
29658275 29778367 30018408 30338365 30688360=20
31148342=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191905
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-200103-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0468
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern NM & the TX Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191903Z - 200103Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing within an
environment with eroding CIN. Hourly rain amounts to 2" could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...An upper level shortwave moving through the Southern
High Plains is leading to diffluence aloft near a stationary front
within the topography of the TX Big Bend and Southern NM.=20
Precipitable water values are 1-1.25". Effective bulk shear is 25
kts. ML CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg lies near and just behind/east of
the front. CIN is eroding at the present time.

The mesoscale guidance suggests that the convective uptick in
coverage should continue through 21-22z. There will be a tendency
for convection to move south-southeast per forward propagation
vectors, though the instability behind the front and some eastward
nudging of the 1000-500 hPa thickness pattern could allow for
occasional southeast motion. Hourly amounts up to 2" are possible
in this environment where cells merge, stall, or short periods of
training occur. Isolated to widely scattered occurrences of flash
flooding are possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EKvSWTgqsD9MbWgBr_-hCzP2Ag-SR-odfk2-eemn_JsK_zBkxPkV3decnT-jM37y_sR= PPSCaCKPkrr55DvXLhGagFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33600515 30070244 28960299 29420436 30650518=20
33410584=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191940
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-200137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0469
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191937Z - 200137Z

Summary...A convective band with heavy rain is moving southwest
towards areas that received extremely heavy rainfall yesterday.=20
Converging outflow boundaries should increase the flash flood risk
late this afternoon into this evening. Hourly rain amounts to 3",
with instantaneous rates of 7"/hr possible, would overwhelm urban
areas and where soils are completely saturated.

Discussion...Two outflow boundaries are on the move; one moving
southeast into west-central LA and another backdooring southwest
through the FL Panhandle and southern AL. Precipitable water
values are near or above 2". ML CAPE is 3000-4000 J/kg, which is
high enough to lead to quick updrafts capable of very high
instantaneous rain rates. Effective bulk shear is roughly 20 kts,
which could lead to some level of organization.

The mesoscale guidance depicts a problematic scenario over the
next six hours. Both outflow boundaries should continue in their
respective directions, with their intersection potentially leading
to highly efficient rainfall. The mesoscale guidance,
particularly the REFS, indicates that this outflow intersection
should occur somewhere between central and southeast LA towards
the end of the MPD period. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible, which in itself would be a major problem for urban areas
and where soils were saturated by yesterday's deluge.=20
Instantaneous rain rates could reach 7"/hr in this environment,
even amongst less organized convection, which would be a problem
even if it occurred for only 5-10 minutes. Flash flooding is
considered likely and should be at least scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67cXnQkoe6wle7d2wasS3cta99h2n21l7M_otYX4LXOaiVwEya9G5TqmCZzVwfMCtEce= nNN_5rXU4Rll7yohclKrWmI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31588916 31118728 30578569 30088476 29598482=20
29638540 30238643 30078787 29848927 29879042=20
30629198 31369284 31479060=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191946
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-200137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0469...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Corrected for flash flood category

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191937Z - 200137Z

Summary...A convective band with heavy rain is moving southwest
towards areas that received extremely heavy rainfall yesterday.=20
Converging outflow boundaries should increase the flash flood risk
late this afternoon into this evening. Hourly rain amounts to 3",
with instantaneous rates of 7"/hr possible, would overwhelm urban
areas and where soils are completely saturated.

Discussion...Two outflow boundaries are on the move; one moving
southeast into west-central LA and another backdooring southwest
through the FL Panhandle and southern AL. Precipitable water
values are near or above 2". ML CAPE is 3000-4000 J/kg, which is
high enough to lead to quick updrafts capable of very high
instantaneous rain rates. Effective bulk shear is roughly 20 kts,
which could lead to some level of organization.

The mesoscale guidance depicts a problematic scenario over the
next six hours. Both outflow boundaries should continue in their
respective directions, with their intersection potentially leading
to highly efficient rainfall. The mesoscale guidance,
particularly the REFS, indicates that this outflow intersection
should occur somewhere between central and southeast LA towards
the end of the MPD period. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible, which in itself would be a major problem for urban areas
and where soils were saturated by yesterday's deluge.=20
Instantaneous rain rates could reach 7"/hr in this environment,
even amongst less organized convection, which would be a problem
even if it occurred for only 5-10 minutes. Flash flooding is
considered likely and should be at least scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EoMelqobMYZec8HE9ukTXnTIvHJ-PcEdHapb1MwYnt6uQx5QPHcGQSmxK_DAwrtcXQx= CxM_xOlXcphCuhX01iw2Pec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31588916 31118728 30578569 30088476 29598482=20
29638540 30238643 30078787 29848927 29879042=20
30629198 31369284 31479060=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192015
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-200013-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0470
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192013Z - 200013Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are growing in coverage across Southeast
TX a bit ahead of an outflow boundary. Hourly rain amounts up to
3" are possible over the next several hours, which could lead to
flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are developing along an
axis of convergence that appears to be ahead of an incoming
outflow boundary. Aloft, there a couple of MCVs located to the
north and west which could be aiding difluence aloft.=20
Precipitable water values are 2-2.1" per GPS data; dew points to
the southeast of the convergence zone approach 80F. ML CAPE of
3000 J/kg exists near the developing thunderstorm line/band, with
values of 4000+ J/kg along the Middle and Lower TX Coast.=20
Effective bulk shear of 25 kts appears to be aiding in
thunderstorm organization.

The 12z REFS has a much better idea on where this line is located
when compared to the 12z HREF. It indicates that the outflow
boundary catches up to the convection and pushes it southeast into
Southwest LA and to the Upper TX Coast around 00z. The available
ingredients support hourly rain amounts to 3", which would be
problematic in urban areas and where soils have some degree of
saturation from recent rainfall.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4EddBkJ8z-2WJfaGAJ5YEu1dC2pzUJpl33uO6hBNBSd04SA6Egkn9w_hv7L79c3hIrKO= Pe7Pa5nOboAEPK4CD1GhwWc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31559333 29779354 28489690 28839805 29279776=20
29989629 31029497=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192111
FFGMPD
MSZ000-ARZ000-200039-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0471
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...near the AR/MS border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192109Z - 200039Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have rapidly developed
ahead of an MCV. For a few hours, hourly rain amounts to 3" and
local totals to 5" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...An approaching MCV located to the west in AR is
helping to aid diffluence aloft near the AR/MS border, where
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have rapidly developed.=20
Precipitable water values are ~2" per GPS data. The area is near
a wave in the ML CAPE, with 2500-3000 J/kg in its vicinity and
4000+ J/kg lying to the south. Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts.

The thunderstorms have shown very little movement yet. The 12z
REFS and to some degree the 18z HREF have some signal for heavy
rainfall in this area, that persists for a few hours. The
presumption is that convective coverage will erode the available
instability, create a cold pool, and develop CIN as the resultant
outflow boundary tries to cause new convective formation to the
east-southeast. Hourly amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
could lead to flash flooding over the next few hours.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Zpn-zgeoSRM6SeKFxHjJBqqjFEQ_Unox1C4Xwn3IFs1t36ppBDPKkJ2vLKueHsOIUFj= flQVZu9yIZiZO6Le_EGllnM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34599007 34258920 33608905 33288968 33529132=20
33909204 34569095=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192353
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-200251-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0472
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
752 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeast MS & northwest AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192351Z - 200251Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are propagating
eastward into/across northeast MS and northwest AL. Hourly
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Convection with heavy rainfall continues to propagate
east to east-southeast across portions of MS while new activity
forms across northwest AL. Precipitable water values are ~2". ML
CAPE is 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of 25 kts is leading
to some level of organization.

There is a modest signal in the mesoscale guidance for this
activity for another few hours. This could be for a couple of
reasons. One is an outflow boundary from central MS convection
earlier which has led to some CIN development to the thunderstorm
area's south. Another could be that a combination of the active
convection and the outflow boundary moving in from western MS
exhausts the ML CAPE sufficiently or leads to CIN development.=20
Either way, hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
remain possible until convection dissipates tonight.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-rTNhi7WzIVYll6f7dIYkHYh3uI4oB5iLdbBgDM9Sklx1wd1pDDUDwOxg1-2Cjq-AjhY= wb3-FImSwcPqp9nkCzdQ_gE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34078854 33878714 33068703 33058827 33068933=20
33049016 33728971=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200019
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-200617-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0473
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of LA & MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200017Z - 200617Z

Summary...Incoming outflow boundaries from the west and east has
begun the expected convective uptick near the Central Gulf Coast.=20
Hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible over saturated soils &
urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across southern LA and southern MS as two outflow boundaries
approach from the west and east. Precipitable water values are
~2.1". ML CAPE remains 3000-4000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is
close to 25 kts, which could organize convection.

Even though both the 12z REFS and 18z HREF show a signal for heavy
rainfall, this appears primarily due to recent HRRR and hi-res NAM
solutions. Radar reflectivity trends lie in the direction of the
wetter guidance. A significant portion of the MPD area has
saturated soils from recent heavy to prolific rainfall. The
ingredients available continue to argue for hourly rain totals to
3" in the heaviest rainfall in this region, which could contain an instantaneous 7"/hr rate for several minutes. These sort of rates
would renew flash flooding. The wetter guidance shows rainfall
diminishing around 05z, which could be due to the resultant
outflow boundaries or outflow boundaries from new convection
clearing the Gulf Coast, so used a five hour horizon.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7doMX_Qfmq9buSFG6QqyVIleVaCg0Vkd3gp2cgyyqm1gMrZ6KnjJJxEH2x5AOKEN6lI2= e9H6KbyT2pKY882nqWuN1zU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32189005 32078923 31768873 30708878 30018880=20
29538888 29138879 28868935 29078978 28889062=20
29219150 29599331 29599385 29739492 30429474=20
31329221 31969102=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200101
FFGMPD
TXZ000-200659-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0474
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200059Z - 200659Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are beginning to cross
the International Border into southern TX. Hourly amounts to 3"
are possible should they successfully break the mid-level cap.=20
This could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms from the periphery of the Sierra Madre
Oriental are beginning to cross the International Border into
southern TX. Temperatures at 700 hPa are above 12C, implying a
moderate convective cap is in place, which has led to some
attempts of convective reorganization from time to time. Earlier
convection between 20-22z in southern TX could not persist.=20
Precipitable water values are ~2.2" per GPS data. ML CAPE is
4000-4500 J/kg in the vicinity of the thunderstorms. Effective
bulk shear is ~25 kts.

The mesoscale guidance suggests that the thunderstorm area has a
decent chance of defeating the mid-level capping inversion in
place and then tracking near the instability gradient towards the
TX Hill Country. While they struggle to persist, they would be in
a state of constant reorganization until the cap becomes broken.=20
The 18z HREF has the stronger signal of this occurring, when
compared to the 12z REFS guidance, though it is slow to move the
convection across the border, based on recent radar reflectivity
trends. In this environment, hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible where cells merge, stall, or short periods of training
manage to occur. Should they occur, they'd be problematic in
urban areas and where topsoil is minimal. Uncertainty is greater
than usual with this type of convective scenario.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4CwfK_flTnTd4x4tTb9yiTqT6c5BYQJt_vjIjpz97e_gd_d_-O09ZsgqgBnQ5EyEU-KJ= 4n06f0wWhwUWvLxodTAFKm8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30229955 29829825 28949822 27079937 28100024=20
29280100=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200548
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0475
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...central and south-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200544Z - 201030Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will likely result in a few
areas of flash flooding across central to south-central TX through
11Z. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches can be expected.

DISCUSSION...0530Z radar imagery showed slow moving nocturnal
convection developing across portions of the Balcones Escarpment
into south-central TX. Farther south, the remains of convection
that crossed the Rio Grande from Mexico late Friday evening was
located over south-central TX and the Rio Grande, with a
convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max over the lower Rio
Grande Valley about 40 miles southwest of Laredo. A remnant MCV
was also identified between Junction and Altoona, embedded within
a large scale mid-level trough axis extending southwestward from
the eastern TX/OK border. Moisture advection with increasing low
southeasterly level flow of 15-20 kt across southern TX resulted
in the removal of lower level CIN where MLCAPE was estimated to
range from 1500 to 3000+ J/kg (SPC mesoanalysis). PWs ranged from
just shy of 2 inches over the Edwards Plateau to near 2.3 inches
from Laredo to Corpus Christi, with upslope enhancement into the
Edwards Plateau likely playing a role in placement.

Some gradual advancement of mid-level features across
central/southern TX along with the further removal of low level
CIN will likely contribute to the eastward expansion of
thunderstorms into the night into portions of
central/south-central TX (from near CLL to CRP). Deeper layer
steering flow was weak with ~10-15 kt from the south, while
slightly stronger 850 mb winds of a similar orientation will
support the potential for backbuilding and training. The
environment will be supportive of high rain rates with 2 to 3+
inches in an hour and a few areas of flash flooding over the next
3-5 hours.

In the short term, a northward advancing outflow boundary to the
south of San Antonio will likely allow for additional development
into the I-35 corridor near San Antonio, possibly reaching as far
north as Austin.

Otto



...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!82wLbb7Oy5KWyfwiooeGI4M34W1LmpvntOvVLG3OdlJIybBp3986ROi8MS83EfyfH-7S= dnAXeK_8mhXSU_LphWr4cmU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30799718 30669617 30259581 29799580 29079621=20
28039692 27449726 27039816 27079911 27769898=20
28569967 29160034 29800018 30219967 30539889=20
30789796=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200701
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-201255-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0476
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...eastern TX into LA and southwestern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200658Z - 201255Z

SUMMARY...At least isolated areas of flash flooding are expected
over the next 3-6 hours (through 3Z) from eastern TX into LA and
possibly southwestern MS. Slow-moving and efficient thunderstorms
will produce hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches.

DISCUSSION...0630Z water vapor imagery identified a mid-level
trough axis that extended from the eastern TX/OK border into the
Edwards Plateau. Earlier long loops of visible and infrared
imagery along with radar imagery suggested an MCV or two may be in
the vicinity of with the mid-level trough axis, which may serve as
an added trigger to convective development. One such MCV was
estimated to be approaching I-35 near Austin. The environment
across eastern TX into LA contained 1000 to 2000+ J/kg of
instability along with PWs of 2.0 to 2.2 inches (SPC
mesoanalysis). Inhibition looked to be eroding across northeastern
TX with the recent expansion of slow-moving showers across the
region.

While movement will be slow, some advancement toward the southeast
is forecast with the mid-level trough axis through 12Z along with
the subtle MCV approaching I-35 near Austin possibly aiding
ascent. Roughly 15 to 20 kt of S to SSE low level flow will
maintain low level moisture advection into eastern TX and LA
overnight resulting in further erosion of low level convective
inhibition. Within the low level flow, an axis or axes of low
level convergence may aid the development of nocturnal
thunderstorms. Kinematic profiles support the potential for slow
movement and backbuilding due to the relatively weak steering flow
from the west to southwest and the stronger magnitude of low level
inflow. While the specific locations of the best forcing are not
clear over the next 3-6 hours, with the continued erosion of CIN
within a very moist environment containing several sources of
ascent, there is high likelihood for at least isolated areas of
flash flooding through 13Z with hourly rainfall possibly exceeding
3 inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-J7gVo8c6lj0tNrKWI6ToPIommYi1SDO7l9YhPskp2V_B4_f2YZqzR-K9br6IjGCmqKq= 5m7aE69zAxvPr8fwxXjG3O4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33449484 33329325 33039158 32729029 32179004=20
31539040 31129123 30589235 30169364 30079523=20
30269612 30829660 31369677 31979659 32399634=20
32659603 33009579=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201022
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0477
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
621 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...south-central TX to portions of
lower/middle/upper coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201021Z - 201530Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will likely continue to
produce at least a couple of areas of flash flooding across
portions of south-central TX to the lower/middle/upper TX coast
through 15Z. Stronger cells will be able to produce hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches.

DISCUSSION...GOES East infrared satellite imagery showed warming
cloud tops over the San Antonio metro over the past 2 hours ending
0950Z. However, newer, slow moving showers/thunderstorms were
forming from near Corpus Christi to points northward across the
Coastal Plain. A broader swirl was noted near the Webb/Zapata
County line associated with a mid-level low/vorticity max which
was slow moving over southern TX. Meanwhile, a composite outflow
boundary was oriented NNE from Starr County into the I-10 corridor
before curving eastward into the Houston metro. A notable
instability gradient extended along the outflow boundary with
~2000+ J/kg MLCAPE along and east/south of the boundary. PWs
remained anomalously high from southern to eastern TX with values
of 2.1 to 2.4 inches per recent GPS data.

Ascent associated with the mid-level low and northeastward
extending shear axis will continue to produce largely disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over portions of south-central TX to the
lower, middle and upper TX coast given a lack of shear and weak
steering flow. However, steering flow oriented similarly to the
south to north oriented section of the outflow
boundary/instability gradient will pose a concern for repeating
cells. In addition, low level flow, currently 15-25 kt, is
stronger than the mean steering flow which will have the potential
to promote backbuilding of cells at times. While some weakening of
the low level flow is anticipated through 15Z, the environment
will be supportive of producing hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches
on at least a localized basis, maintaining a flash flood threat
over the region for another few hours.

Otto



...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_D0QzowgZFRjByne--TIdBrJO557ltSxKxsq1RTRqoM1l-TVMmwHadCJsdORd1s4hCrp= By5DkSUkzloV4G6UA4dnVLM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31499757 31399693 30739660 30459616 30079510=20
29879493 29569480 29179489 28849519 28689547=20
28569581 28409602 28039654 27759679 27519706=20
27009742 26859780 26859849 27049895 27429952=20
28089986 28860011 29989985 30039978 30319961=20
30579937 30929887 31169845 31359809=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201147
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-201730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0478
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
746 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi River Valley through western
Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201145Z - 201730Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across the area
this morning and train with rainfall rates reaching 2-3"/hr at
times. This will result in axes of 2-4" of rain with locally
higher amounts, likely leading to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a
continuous but wavy line of convection aligned NE to SW from far
western MS through northeast TX and then down along the Lower
Texas Coast. The portion of this line in LA continues to intensify
along a residual outflow boundary that is slowly sinking E/SE,
with recent hourly rainfall measured by MRMS as much as 2.5".
Upstream of this boundary, a series of shortwaves is noted in WV
imagery pushing eastward near the ArkLaTex, with downstream ascent
through height falls within a broad mid-level trough axis leading
to additional convective development as far east as the AL/MS
border noted via cooling cloud tops in the GOES-E IR imagery.

This activity is persisting within extremely favorable
thermodynamics to support this heavy rainfall. Recent VWPs
indicate that 850mb inflow has increased to 25-30 kts, and while
some subtle veering is beginning to occur, it is still
transporting PWs of more than 2 inches northeastward into the
convection. At the same time, MUCAPE analyzed via the SPC RAP is
2000-3000 J/kg, additionally fueling this morning's activity.

During the next several hours, convection is progged via the
high-res guidance to continue to expand eastward into MS/AL, while
only slowly waning across LA. As SBCAPE climbs with daytime
heating and the LLJ veers more steadily to the east, activity
should become more scattered thanks to modest shear. However,
propagation becoming increasingly aligned against the mean flow,
which will remain weak, will support backbuilding and repeating
cells. This will support rainfall rates potentially continuing
above 2"/hr (20-40% chance from the HREF), leading to 6-hr
rainfall that has a 40% chance of exceeding 3", and a 20% chance
of reaching 5" (REFS and HREF probabilities).

Much of this region is extremely saturated from 7-day rainfall
that has been 300-600+% of normal. This has led to fully saturated
soils (0-40cm soil moisture above the 98th percentile according to
NASA SPoRT) and 3-hr FFG as low as 1-2". This suggests that any
heavy rain will quickly transition to runoff due to limited
infiltration capacity of the soils, and flash flooding is likely
into early aftn.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6cKjaqUDd4qGUHQaf4biB3-pLP3zGEPr_cXqNjV3lgIAgBZQS8GZBo31G4SMzYFCYLhp= wewdMpqy40CC2OKvQz9jVWA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...MOB...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34869043 34788894 34148767 33218718 32328738=20
31588814 31108908 30849041 30789139 30809231=20
31039304 31429367 32229403 32889330 33389218=20
34599127=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201324
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-201730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0479
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
923 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Texas and Southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201322Z - 201730Z

Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will gradually
sink southeast this morning with rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr. This
will continue the ongoing flash flood risk for a few more hours.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
small cluster of thunderstorms in the vicinity of Waco, TX and
extending east towards LA. This cluster is moving slowly E/SE, and
is being driven by a potent shortwave noted in the GOES-E WV
imagery, with an attendant MCV likely in place as well based on
circulation evident in reflectivity. Rainfall rates within this
cluster have been measured by MRMS to be more than 2"/hr, and
several mesonet sites across Limestone and Leon counties have
received 4-5" of rain so far this morning.

As the shortwave/MCV track slowly southeast the next few hours,
they will encounter extremely favorable thermodynamics to continue
to support heavy rainfall. PWs as measured by GPS are well over 2
inches, with accompanying MUCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Broad
troughing aloft (within which this shortwave is embedded) will
additionally support ascent, so even though the LLJ is progged to
gradually veer, weakening the thermodynamic advection, there
should still be sufficient thermodynamics and kinematics for this
cluster to persist. This is reflected by several more hours of
robust simulated reflectivity in high-res guidance, as well as
only a slow wane in elevated (>50%) probabilities for at least
1"/hr rainfall rates. This will support additional rainfall of
2-4" of rainfall (40-60% chance of at least 3" in the next 6
hours) across portions of eastern Texas including the eastern
Texas Triangle and the Piney Woods, leading to isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding through the remainder of the
morning hours.

As this cluster begins to decay, secondary development may occur
farther southeast as the shortwave continues to dive southward and
a bay breeze develops. There is more uncertainty into this
development at this time, but high-res guidance and accompanying
probabilistic information suggest slow moving storms may develop
as early as 15Z from near Houston, TX through SW LA, with
additional heavy rain rates fueled by rich theta-e air lifting off
the Gulf. Storm motions along this boundary may just be around 5
kts and parallel to the boundary, suggesting an increasing flash
flood risk due to training cells leading to 2-4" of rainfall atop
saturated soils.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9WNUtu-ZjbG0ZhJIFqV-4w5EioF8CweeUyIWdtrD6aMjupRX4-cS2cShV10j0oPT7UeM= MxlhJ9ipWqI5X62VCkF2KGs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32299545 32109451 31939424 31619356 31289286=20
30859224 30499205 30229217 30009288 29619391=20
29469427 29299481 29299516 29339549 29489579=20
29729609 30009645 30519675 31209698 31839704=20
32289644=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201525
FFGMPD
TXZ000-202130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0480
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1124 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...South Texas and the Texas Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201530Z - 202130Z

Summary...Convection will rapidly expand across South Texas and
the Texas Coast this afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are
expected, which through slow storm motions could produce 3-5" of
rainfall. Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...An upper low spinning over parts of South Texas is
clearly evident this morning as a spin in visible satellite
imagery. A few clusters of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have
been ongoing already this morning just inland from the Middle
Texas Coast, but additional convection is beginning to expand as
noted via improving glaciation in the GOES-E experimental
day-cloud phase RGB.

Thermodynamics across the area are impressive. PWs as measured via
GPS are above 2.3" inches, or near the daily record according to
the SPC sounding climatology. These tropical PWs are combining
with MLCAPE above 2500 J/kg to support the increasing thunderstorm
coverage, with ascent driven both by the upper low and attendant
mid-level trough axis, as well as a developing bay-breeze which
will produce low-level convergence. Additionally, 850mb inflow of
10-20 kts is roughly equal to the mean wind, but locally some
enhancement is occurring immediately downstream of the upper low,
forcing more intense thermodynamic advection into the Texas Coast.

During the next few hours, the environment will support an
expansion and intensification of thunderstorms, especially along
the bay breeze and immediately downstream of the upper low. This
is reflected by available high-res guidance simulated
reflectivity, and confidence is increasing in widespread coverage
by this aftn. Any thunderstorms will contain extremely heavy rain
rates (already measured by MRMS at 1.75"/hr), with both HREF and
REFS 1-hr rainfall probabilities reaching 30-50% for 2"/hr.

These rain rates themselves could cause instances of flash
flooding since soils are primed (0-40cm soul moisture above the
95th percentile) with FFG around 3"/3hrs. However, Corfidi vectors
become aligned more obliquely right of the mean flow, which is
itself parallel to the developing boundary and only around 10 kts.
This suggests a high potential for regenerating and training of
cells, leading to rainfall that may (40-50% chance) exceed 3", and
could (20% chance) top 5" in some locations, leading to at least
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7t2h4luYLXTIa5zXUyK-Nk_Rwtg8Wx22T8m9pIm9h2tcQU9fJzaZuynDUDWQ4VK2V8h9= 9VQ-Hpm84XgbdyydcTyHlW8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29939610 29829557 29679525 29389507 28929496=20
28389511 27979552 27709619 27299660 26969678=20
26639706 26329725 26079750 26039795 26219851=20
26409886 26679918 26909947 27099964 27439967=20
27779951 27889917 27969883 28119837 28399811=20
28689799 29409732 29809667=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201654
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-202300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0481
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1253 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi, Alabama, Southwest Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201700Z - 202300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand along a warm front
this afternoon and then train slowly along the boundary. Hourly
rainfall exceeding 2 inches is likely, with total rainfall of
3-5+" possible. This will produce an increasing risk for flash
flooding.

Discussion...An active afternoon is continuing across portions of
the Southeast, with widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring
from Texas to Alabama. On the northern edge of the most active
weather so far today, Cu and TCu with increasing glaciation is
noted in the GOES-E experimental day-cloud RGB, suggesting
thunderstorms will rapidly develop from far northern MS through northern/central AL and into western GA. This enhanced cloud
development is occurring along a warm front/stationary front
analyzed by WPC, with ascent aided both by subtle height falls
within a broad mid-level trough axis, and weak but persistent RRQ
diffluence as a jet streak pivots to the northeast. This ascent is
acting upon impressive thermodynamics characterized by PWs
measured by GPS of 1.9 to 2.2 inches, well above the 90th
percentile for the date, overlapping MLCAPE that has recently
eclipsed 1500-2000 J/kg according to the SPC RAP analysis.

Within this environment, showers and thunderstorms have contained
robust rain rates measured via MRMS as high as 0.5-0.6"/15 min
(2+"/hr) in many areas. It is likely that as the atmosphere
destabilizes further and pronounced SW flow surges the tropical
moisture even farther northward, rain rates could become even more
impressive. Both the REFS and HREF indicate a 40-60% chance for at
least 2"/hr rainfall, while the sub-hourly HRRR indicates up to
0.75"/15 min (3"/hr rates). This indicates a high confidence in
2-3"/hr rainfall rates in any deep convection, and these cells
will likely develop and regenerate along the front thanks to
isentropic ascent/convergence, and then train E/SE on mean flow of
just around 10 kts.

This setup is favorable for prolonged training from NW to SE in
the vicinity of the front and this could produce 3-5" of rainfall
with locally higher amounts possible (20% chance). Soils across
this region are already primed as reflected by NASA SPoRT 0-40cm
soil moisture above the 95th percentile and 3-hr FFG that is
generally around 2.5". While the greatest risk for flash flooding
will be across urban areas including Tupelo, MS, Birmingham, AL,
and Columbus, GA, any locations that receive training heavy
rainfall atop these sensitive soils could experience flash
flooding impacts.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7mVYdWWqTJqGv0v2QGLbfY0ExfMEQyR7-I2Mmdbaa5gE8-h94CZ9gKikAzXXhJ-mkf7P= Fsc_EFwQB-PNxNnjmkEuycg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34928946 34788825 34458722 34058624 33038398=20
32428358 32028372 31668388 31318425 31168479=20
31268539 31578625 31888690 32328749 32858828=20
33198886 33478925 34108997=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201746
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-202330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0482
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...Gulf Coast from Houston, TX through Mobile, AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201745Z - 202330Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will become
widespread along the gulf breeze through this afternoon and
evening. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are likely within this
convection, which through slow motions could produce 2-4" of rain
atop saturated soils. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this aftn shows a slow
expansion of thunderstorms aligning the Gulf Coast from near
Houston, TX through New Orleans, LA and towards Mobile, AL. These
thunderstorms are developing along a sharpening surface
trough/Gulf Breeze driving enhanced convergence to support rapid
convective development.

The environment across the region remains extremely favorable for
heavy rainfall. PWs as measured by GPS are 2.1 to 2.3 inches, or
well above the 90th percentile for the date, which is combining
with MLCAPE that has steadily climbed above 2500 J/kg. This is
helping to fuel the rapid expansion of convection noted in the
regional radar mosaic the past few hours, and hourly rainfall
within this fresh development has been measured via MRMS to be
1.00 to 1.75 inches.

During the next several hours, the high-res guidance, including
recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS, indicate scattered to widespread
convection will repeatedly develop along this boundary as
convergence continues within the robust thermodynamics. Both the
HREF and REFS indicate that rainfall rates will spike above 2"/hr
(30-40% chance) in the deeper convection, with short term rates
above 3"/hr likely as reflected by the sub-hourly HRRR. These
rates will occur within primarily pulse convection due to a lack
of meaningful shear, so the duration of any individual cell will
likely be limited, but regenerating and repeating rounds with
storm motions expected to be just around 10 kts will result in
total rainfall reaching 2-4" along this boundary.

This region is extremely vulnerable to flash flooding right now
due to recent heavy rain. 7-day rainfall has been generally
300-600% of normal (SW LA the exception which has been dry and
likely has a lower flash flood risk) leading to 0-40cm soil
moisture that is above the 95th percentile in many areas. So while
the heaviest rainfall may remain scattered this aftn, the recent
sensitivity of this region suggests a flash flood risk will exist
through peak heating into the evening hours.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_H4om7N8fy6TcGnSQv0RKJrN1eZIU8Bq1IZS68CimvBURWYO3wGP3Ix6W6VB_TlJa-UM= nq_yV-psBc823gxSod3pAzU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32408874 32308787 32028690 31688636 31348619=20
30978634 30468737 30178816 29908897 29698979=20
29719035 29739115 29739219 29619349 29299472=20
29329516 29629548 30129494 30789388 31459211=20
32218975=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 202023
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-210130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0483
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...South-central & Southeast Georgia...Northern
Florida...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202020Z - 210130Z

SUMMARY...An isolated incident or two of flash flooding remains
possible with local back-building and or repeating cells. Sandy
soils/swampy areas may mitigate some flooding concerns but locally
intense rates to 2.5"+/hr are possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite and RAP analysis depict an elongated
mid-level shear axis across central MS stretching into western GA
at this time accompanied by expanding right entrance region ascent
pattern mainly across northern and central GA. The surface
boundary remains stationary from the Savannah River to just north
of Columbus GA trapping high moisture with Tds in the low to
mid-70s but also pooled deeper layer moisture through 500mb per
CIRA LPW suite, resulting in broad 2"+ Total PWat with localized
pockets in excess of 2.25". Ample insolation has allowed for
upper 80s, low 90s temps and MLCAPEs springing upward to over
2000-2500 J/kg.

Weakening capping and weak confluence through depth into the
slightly sagging frontal zone intersecting it has resulted in
scattered convective initiation along the front. Given the
confluent but increasing upstream inflow, localized back-building
has been noted upstream and there is solid potential for localized
storm interaction to support this downstream into SE GA along the
front; though deep layer steering is also fairly parallel to the
boundary to support some repeating as well. Given rates of
2.5"/hr are probable within the core of any given cell, residency
time is going to be the driver of localized flash flooding
concerns especially over the swampier and/or sandier soil
condition areas of the region. Additionally, a complex of
intersecting sea-breeze and upper-level support over the easter
portion of the FL Panhandle into northern Florida is advancing
into the unstable environment and is trending toward merger with
the frontal zone later this evening, perhaps through the I-95
corridor, perhaps in proximity to Brunswick or N
Jacksonville...further increasing potential for localized flooding
conditions.

Overall, the residency is not likely to be considerable but for a
few isolated locations where a quick 3-4" is not out of the realm
of possibility. As such, an isolated incident of flash flooding
is considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_KNlMv61SWVl_xmy6LS1FFVk1gWT9jOKhI-UMh2iRlQqVFfvtzk45Ey0wuS6qVhceZEW= 36RA-CGI-QtLAMV06IeZLec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32568321 32258136 31788099 30938135 29978128=20
29898270 30528348 31198385 31938401 32488376=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 202057
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0484
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
456 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...Southern Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202100Z - 210200Z

SUMMARY...Stubborn closed low in S Texas.

DISCUSSION...A well defined, stubborn stationary closed low
remains over South Texas with clearing in the central portion of
the circulation while convective clusters along the peripheries
continue to be highly efficient with rates of 2-3"/hr likely.=20
Strong clusters are located mainly within the Lower Rio Grande
Valley in Webb/Zapata, S Starr, E Cameron with small cores in E
Kenedy county. Cold pools are starting to present a few outflow
boundaries, especially propagating northward into slightly more
stable air. There is some remaining low-level heating to
possibility spout a new cell or two but better potential remains
along the Lower Rio Grande Valley as far as northern Webb county.=20
RAP analysis shows a few remaining pockets of enhanced
conditionally unstable air in the Valley proper with MLCAPEs of
2000-3000 J/kg, though the aforementioned clusters appear to be
chewing through most of that at this time. Overall, deep layer
moisture remains in place with values in excess of 2.5" through
depth with upper 70s to low 80s Tds at the surface. Solid
easterly onshore flow could further aid some advection of further
warm Gulf air to replenish and may also allow for slow eastward
propagation to increase residency time for localized 3-5" totals
in 1-3 hours.

However, overall coverage of instability and current maturity
stage of the current convection does not appear to have a trend of
significant longevity, so confidence is reduced in potential for
likely flash flooding conditions through the evening. However, it
would not take much to re-aggravate the saturated areas and with
potential for those rates/totals in short time frames, localized
flash flooding is still considered possible through the late
evening/early overnight period south of the closed low.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4iKLRPSUDzw96JjLP5G_ePWJ2RxQkOVssa71shqY6lEtI9ZBCpJi7E3suWeOlTffinu3= XU7JIuH_gfILXxag6tl3v7U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28760007 28599945 27829867 27829801 28289747=20
28219702 27819696 27239720 26449702 25869711=20
25909772 26109848 26509919 26799946 27839999=20
28620053=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 202210
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0485
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
610 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...Northeast CO...Southwest NEB...Northwest to
North-central KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202210Z - 210330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving supercells to grow upscale into forward
propagating complex with favorable cell-orientation to promote
training. A swath of 2-4" totals to result in scattered possible
incidents of flash flooding especially into late evening/early
overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery and regional RADAR depict a
numerous supercells developing along a well defined warm front
that extends from a deepening "Denver" surface low across Akron to
near Imperial, NE to McCook to near Concordia, KS. An
ill-defined/broad dry-line is noted across E CO, that has mixed
well to shift eastward, though a secondary Td gradient with mid
60s Tds intersects the warm front further east into SW NEB where
greatest convective initiation/ascent has been occurring in the
last hour or so. VWP and RAP analysis denote very strong
cyclonically convergent LLJ across E KS with 35-45kts with solid
directional shear to help rapidly increase moisture flux toward
the supercells (25 kg/m/s of sfc moist convergence). Combine that
with storm-scale isallobaric influx, will result in rapid increase
of total PWats from 1.25-1.4" toward 1.75-2" toward 23-00z and
rainfall efficiency. In the mean-time, steep lapse rates support
2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and currently supporting large hail
development. KDP analysis shows the large hail signature, but also
slowly expanding higher degree/KM heavy rainfall signatures in the
broadening downdrafts.=20=20

GOES-E WV suite and AMVs shows cyclogenesis and low-level wind
response at the diffluent edge of broader mid to upper-level
trough and jet exit region. This will support solid outflow aloft
and upscale growth into a broader convective complex in the next
few hours. Current orientation of the supercells and typical
expected rightward deflection to the mean flow should allow for
increasingly favorable potential for repeating/training profiles
to increase overall duration. Hourly rates will steadily
increase from 1.5-2"/hr toward consistent 2"+/hr and with current
shape/trends is suggestive of a swath of 2-4" totals from far SW
NEB across northwest KS toward north-central KS, though some
southward expansion is possible given Hi-Res CAM trends.=20=20

While the air/upper soils have been very dry and resulting FFG
values range from 1.5-2.25"/hr or 2-3"/3hr; the dry conditions at
the higher rates may also result in lesser infiltration initially,
further increasing the potential for scattered incidents of flash
flooding especially toward/after 00z.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9mGilyksjfIc1MmhOCT2OUEcuL6dg7feSrVxowLgpGeY5lAgXvAwFofHdaJNdDDLpqs6= qFeI_pbvhfbQezpsCM_Yr2E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 40340181 40300007 39899882 39289896 38789938=20
38669987 38840084 39060178 39350251 39670272=20
40230257=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210405
FFGMPD
KSZ000-210900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0486
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1204 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 210403Z - 210900Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are likely to develop over
portions of central KS tonight as thunderstorms repeat and train.
Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches is expected to produce rainfall
maxima over 4 or 5 inches by 09Z.

Discussion...0345Z regional radar imagery across the central
Plains showed a complex evolution of thunderstorms with a bowing
MCS over southwestern KS, advancing toward the ESE. Additional
thunderstorms were located along and north of a quasi-stationary
front which was oriented roughly west-east across KS, including a
cluster of storms advancing into northeastern KS from southeastern
NE. The environment over central KS was supportive of organized
convection and contained 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 to 1.7 inch
precipitable water values (locally higher) based on 00Z soundings
from DDC and TOP and 03Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Upper level jet
support was robust across KS, out ahead of a lower amplitude and
somewhat broad shortwave trough over ID and WY.

As the leading bowing segment over southwestern KS likely tracks
toward the ESE, a strong low level jet of up to 50-60 kt over
west-central KS will continue to overrun rain-cooled air from the
MCS and the synoptic scale stationary front to the north. Low
pressure over eastern CO will begin to move eastward by 06Z into
western KS with the low level jet and forcing for ascent shifting
east with time as well. Elevated thunderstorms were already
ongoing across Rawlins and Decatur counties of northwestern KS
with advancement toward the ESE expected. Numerous thunderstorms
are expected over western, central and portions of northeastern KS
over the next 3-5 hours with areas of repeating and training
likely, leading to hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches in a few
places (locally higher possible). Expectations are for at least
localized high rainfall totals through 09Z, in the amount of 4 to
5+ inches, with areas of flash flooding likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7iWuZUBRnzFbZU8pzeWz_ExKfOHWbSwBaSlRXFPeLIwYYruKSJVp3gcAmGX7WyrP75MT= kvJ16lRgJcIE0lRdEl1F_QU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39940098 39929972 39829834 39649702 39429594=20
39019560 38439572 38089596 37579699 37669948=20
38000070 38770094 39280119 39590142 39820128=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210659
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-211255-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0487
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...middle and upper TX coast into southwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210656Z - 211255Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected across the
middle and upper TX coast into southwestern LA through 13Z. Peak
hourly rainfall over 2 inches is expected along with possible
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery in the vicinity of Corpus Christi Bay
at 0630Z showed scattered thunderstorms. These storms may have
formed in response to outflow advancing outward from an earlier
cluster of thunderstorms which collapsed ~100 miles off of the
lower TX coast shortly after 01Z. Regardless of the reason for
initiation, the entire Coastal Plain of TX has been seeing a
return to an unstable environment after Saturday afternoon's
convection stabilized a good portion of central TX to the Coastal
Plain. Trends over the past 4 hours in MLCAPE from the SPC
mesoanalysis showed this well as low level onshore flow of 15-25
kt has been helping to advect low level moisture (and instability)
back inland, Meanwhile, a mid-level low remained over
south-central TX (~80 miles south of San Antonio) on infrared
satellite and low level water imagery, with a shear axis extending
along the TX coast into western LA.

Additional outflow potentially propagating northward from the
western Gulf and low level convergence on the nose of a subtle
uptick in low level flow is expected to initiate thunderstorms
along the upper TX coast into southwestern LA over the next 1-2
hours. The onshore low level flow may act to support brief
upstream redevelopment and training of heavy rain with the deeper
layer mean steering flow from the S to SW at 10-20 kt. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will be possible, but values above 2
inches should remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage. The
increasing coverage of thunderstorms will result in a possible
flash flood threat from near Corpus Christi Bay to the upper TX
coast and into southwestern LA. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is expected (locally higher possible) through 13Z atop a
good portion of the Gulf Coast that has received 300 to 600+
percent of average rainfall over the past week, lessening soil
absorption capabilities.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8jjQqzaHrzJbRiMhzM4z3d7GBZxvREkG5c0K0t66geMQO49yuMNYZHsN1I_-LqCLw1cE= tNo-h2aoJ271vqTapeENPyQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30759387 30719294 30359195 29789204 29429271=20
29529399 28669514 28299584 27899647 27809717=20
28019772 28609777 29429698 30049615 30559497=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210835
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0488
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...west-central to eastern KS, western MO and
northeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 210832Z - 211345Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be likely across portions of central
and eastern KS and possibly into western MO and northeastern OK
through 14Z. Training of heavy rain is expected to coincide with
peak hourly rainfall of roughly 2 to 3 inches (locally higher) and
additional totals of 3 to 5+ inches on an isolated basis.

DISCUSSION...An expansive MCS continued to evolve over central KS
as of 08Z with an MCV identified about 50 miles NNE of ICT and a
preceding bowing line segment. A trailing band of thunderstorms
extended in a SE to NW arc from the southern most portion of the
leading bow, from between Hutchinson and Pratt to I-70 near
Oakley. Over the past 1-2 hours, there has been some cloud top warming/weakening associated with the leading bowing segment
advancing ESE over southern KS between Wichita and Chanute but
plenty of instability remained along and south of the MCS track.
SPC mesoanalysis data showed an instability gradient from central
KS to the eastern MO/AR border, associated with a quasi-stationary
front that extended east to west across central KS, with 1000 to
2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE over southern KS, northern OK into southern
MO/northern AR.

The MCV will continue to track east over the next 6 hours with
possible continued weakening of the leading linear segment.
However, upstream thunderstorms over south-central KS have
strengthened over the past hour with additional thunderstorms over
west-central KS, advancing southeastward. Repeating rounds and
training of heavy rain are expected to result in areas of flash
flooding over portions of central to southeastern KS where peak
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is expected. Total rainfall of 3
to 5 inches (locally higher) will be possible on an isolated basis
with areas of flash flooding likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6xRyHCdo8fO_lHj95KwHXsmcnpdSGAl7xabX6gkb1bxqvn9RZIhKaTvChSn2jBWj3woq= fvvfVlwgmhnvrT5GegoM5Vs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GLD...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39769392 39569345 39409315 39139288 38819269=20
38449266 38049283 37549309 37099382 36679577=20
36699738 37209916 37880008 38540035 39039986=20
38859892 38709757 38919634 39159564 39679476=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211247
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-211830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0489
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...Coastal & Eastern Texas...Western & Central
Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 211245Z - 211830Z

SUMMARY...Scattered Localized FF likely peaking, though near shore
incident risk remains through early afternoon along the near
coast. Spotty/urban issues northward are not likely to be too
consequential.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic denotes numerous scattered
thunderstorms across the central and upper Texas coast into
southwest LA with an arched band advancing northward across E TX
and central LA. Localized pockets along/near the coast remain
fairly terrain locked due to storm/coastal frictional convergence
maxima allowing for continued efficient deep warm cloud layer
rainfall production to remain relatively stationary. Elongated
mid-level shear axis remains with core of remaining vorticity near
Corpus Christi, ample total moisture of 2.5-2.7", so while
available deep moisture along with slowly reducing onshore speed
max for moisture flux supports rates of 2.5-3.5"+/hr allowing for
sizable totals in short duration. RAP analysis already denotes
localized instability pools are starting to reduce along with
onshore wind flow per short term RAP forecast...so pockets will
continue to linger for the next few hours, with only a few areas
of new development along the fringes of the cloud cover expected,
though any clearing and renewed insolation near the coast, could
reactivate coastal convection as noted in recent HRRR solutions
along the central TX coast. Overall, flash flooding/rapid
inundation flooding is likely to continue through 18z along the
coastal Plain including through SW LA.=20

Further north...The high theta-E air morning moisture flux/WAA
pattern is starting to shift further ashore with leading edge
convection advancing into Walker/San Jacinto to Newton counties in
Texas and across to Vernon to Evangeline parishes in Louisiana.=20
This is a progressive northward march across areas that had been
less affected over the last week or so before moving back toward
soils with higher saturation (per NASA SPoRT) closer to I-20. A
bit less sub-cloud moisture/drier environment and increased
northward propagation should also limit overall totals necessary
to induce localized flash flooding; though rates rainfall
production will still remain at least a driving hazard, with
perhaps one or two isolated urban flooding concerns though this is
much less likely.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6WmbybKrFNIBR-nE4VqRJwbMcV93q3Efzlagu05FIC6sh-XRjBAm6E36DoPSsl2BJ1V5= -Z3AnBwZjd3PPI1L9TETLTc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32869400 32689289 32339236 31429209 30229217=20
29649279 29619394 28939508 28039665 27439732=20
27979774 29419642 31559640 32609555=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211952
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0490
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...Maine and eastern New Hampshire

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212000Z - 220200Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop and drop steadily southeast through nightfall. Rain rates
of 2"/hr at times are likely, leading to 1-2" of rainfall with
locally higher amounts around 3". This may cause instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic across New England this
afternoon shows rapidly expanding coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. This convective activity is blossoming in response
to a modest 500mb trough exiting to the northeast coincident with
the LFQ of an approaching upper jet streak to provide deep layer
ascent. This lift is occurring within favorable thermodynamics for
heavy rainfall, characterized by PWs measured by GPS of around
1-1.1 inches (around the 75th percentile for the date) combined
with MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg as analyzed by the SPC RAP. The overlap
of this ascent into this environment is supporting 15-min rainfall
measured by MRMS as high as 0.5-0.6" (2+"/hr rates) and resulting
in several FFWs issued by WFO GYX and WFO CAR.

Although effective shear is minimal, leading to generally
pulse-type thunderstorms with short overall lifespans, the
high-res guidance is insistent that scattered-to-widespread
activity will persist during the next several hours as synoptic
ascent continues into these robust thermodynamics. Both the REFS
and HREF indicate a 30-50% chance of at least 1"/hr rates through
this evening, with locally higher rates likely as reflected by
current MRMS and the 15-min HRRR for this evening.

While storms should generally move steadily around 10 kts towards
the SE, brief slowing is possible where cells get hung up around
terrain, due to other cell/boundary interactions, or, potentially
most problematically, closer to the coast where the NW flow may
pin any sea breeze. Corfidi vectors fall to just around 5 kts this
evening, so some more substantial slowing or chaotic motion is
possible during the next few hours than what has occurred so far
today. This is also reflected by subtly higher probabilities for
at least 2" of rain from around Augusta through Penobscot Bay and
east towards Canada, so locally more than 3" of rain is possible
in a few locations where any storms repeat or slow.

Soil moisture across the area is elevated as reflected by NASA
SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture that is above the 80th percentile,
especially away from the coast. This is offset from the area of
highest probabilistic guidance for heavy rainfall, however,
suggesting that much of the state of Maine and into eastern New
Hampshire has a risk for isolated to scattered flash flooding
through sunset, at which time convection should rapidly wane.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5H2mILMu28Rmd5iWKHHPU3sUlu4-TmP-lx4-blLmnxfErLsb7XtAYtsZxnmRMQzf3fNM= LkTNEEwNsBcEH8FLyvzNM5w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47346904 47086847 46686810 46246775 45666737=20
45156714 44756705 44406753 44186793 43936855=20
43676923 43396988 43167067 43237094 43667122=20
44177155 44697168 45297142 47166984=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 212102
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0491
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern Illinois into Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212100Z - 220200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand ahead of an MCV
and within WAA ahead of a wave of low pressure through the
evening. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are expected at times, leading
to 2-4" of rain and isolated higher amounts. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows an
impressive area of convection blossoming across south-central
Illinois. This uptick in activity is associated with a swirl
evident in reflectivity, indicating the presence of an MCV to
enhance ascent. Farther west, WPC has analyzed a surface wave
moving into far northeast Missouri, with a downstream warm front
extending into Illinois as well. W-SW flow between 850-500mb is
originating from robust thermodynamics, drawing PWs of 1.8 to 2.0
inches, and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg into the region. Recent MRMS
hourly rainfall has been as high as 1.75 to 2.00 inches, resulting
in the issuance of a few FFWs in Illinois.

During the next several hours, the wave of low pressure, the
accompanying warm front, and the MCV will slowly track northeast
on the broad W-SW flow. This will continue to push favorable
thermodynamics northeast into IL/IN, while the 850mb flow
ascending the warm front will create locally enhanced isentropic
lift. This should result in a sharp instability gradient along the
boundary, suggesting the deepest convection and accompanying
highest rainfall rates will be along and south of the warm front,
and this is agreed upon by most of the available high-res
guidance. Where this deeper convection develops, both the HREF and
REFS probabilities indicate a 20-40% chance of hourly rainfall
reaching 2". Some regeneration and backbuilding along the front
(partially in response to the persistent northeast draw of
favorable thermodynamics) could lengthen the duration of these
rainfall rates, leading to 6-hr rainfall that could (20-30%
chance) exceed 5" in a few locations.

Soils across this region are generally dry as reflected by NASA
SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture that is in the 10th-30th percentile.
This has allowed FFG to climb to as high as 2-3"/3 hrs. However,
HREF exceedance probabilities peak above 50% for this FFG, further
indicating the potential for these intense rates and possible
training to overwhelm even the relatively drier soils leading to
instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8317SyDppWRWvhRegErErzjTlD98md1PvF7BdH9zkuoqYzKqml365D-MarsBgz9I6Q61= YoXaQxEpbOM1wUtoyS1w5aQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40708686 40638619 40418535 39798502 38988509=20
38458591 37978681 37548801 37368888 37438960=20
37659012 38829067 40058918 40588777=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 212148
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0492
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas, Northeast Oklahoma, Southern
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212145Z - 220330Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will steadily increase in
coverage through the evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, which through training could
produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. This may result
in flash flooding.

Discussion...The experimental day-cloud phase RGB from GOES-E this
afternoon shows gradually expanding glaciated clouds stretching
from near the KS/OK border through southern MO. This is associated
with deepening convection, and although the regional radar is
still quite sparse, this is the initiation of what could become an
active evening across the area.

WPC has analyzed a wave of low pressure moving into far western
Illinois, with a stationary front draped in its wake. This front
should gradually transition to a cold front and advect steadily
southeast as a potent shortwave digs across NE/IA this evening. Downstream/ahead of this front, rich thermodynamic advection will=20
become impressive, with PWs approaching 2 inches on SW 850mb flow
of 20-30 kts, overlapping with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Although
the front is still well north of this region, ongoing convection
is breaking out along a residual outflow/surface trough as
convergence forces parcels to break the +9C 700mb modest
convective lid. Within this ongoing convection, hourly rainfall
measured via MRMS has already eclipsed 1 inch, leading to FLASH
response approaching 100 cfs/smi and QPE/FFG ratios over 100% in
SE KS.

The high-res guidance is in good agreement that during the next
few hours, thunderstorm activity will swell along this boundary as
the LLJ begins to ramp up drawing more impressive thermodynamics
northward to further destabilize the environment. This will be
aided by the approach of the front, and it is likely that a nearly
continuous line of thunderstorms will develop and then track
slowly southeast this evening. However, mean 0-6km winds of 20-25
kts are progged to remain parallel to the boundary, so as rainfall
rates spike to 1-2"/hr (10-20% chance for 2"/hr from REFS and
HREF), cells will train along the boundary leading to stripes of
total rainfall that have a 30-40% chance of exceeding 3 inches.

Recent rainfall across this region has been elevated as reflected
by 24-hr QPE of 1-3" from central OK through far western MO.
However, the heaviest rainfall today may miss to the south of
these most sensitive soils. While any heavy rain that moves across
that area would have the greatest potential to cause rapid runoff
and flash flooding, training of these intense rain rates anywhere
this evening could cause flash flood related impacts.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_l4OGQohUGwVL4SINihUNIaKAXSFTAEtZkDWyFhTooqaUKOGHI4dK-GMDAPBMWMfRzI4= riI0loF5_ZKubjePupO2t7w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38349151 38229018 37838966 37368950 36978968=20
36759025 36479130 36219331 36139528 36399722=20
36739749 37209707 37699595 38199361=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220138
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0493
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri through far Southwest Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220136Z - 220700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold
front will expand and intensify this evening. Rainfall rates of
1-2"/hr will train ahead of this front, leading to 2-4" of rain
with locally higher amounts possible. Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows two
lines of expanding convection moving across the Ozarks and the
western Ohio Valley. This convection is blossoming along both a
cold front dropping towards St. Louis, MO, and a persistent
pre-frontal trough aligned NE to SW from southern IN through
southern MO. A weakening MCV ejecting into OH has been responsible
for locally as much as 5" of rain in southern IL, and although
this is ejecting, impressive ascent along the pre-frontal trough
continues to support convection with hourly rainfall as much as 2".

The next few hours are expected to become very active across this
region as reflected by most available high-res CAMs. Pinched 850mb
inflow (aided by the exiting MCV) measured via regional VWPs of
25-35 kts will continue to support impressive thermodynamic
advection into the trough, with additional synoptic influence
occurring as the cold front digs southward. This will drive
continuous confluence of elevated MLCAPE (2000-2500 J/kg) and
anomalous PWs (1.8-2.0 inches) into the boundary. As this entire
system digs slowly southward, redevelopment of thunderstorms is
expected, especially along the SW flank of the front/trough, with
training of cells anticipated on WSW 0-6km mean flow of 20 kts.

Rain rates within this convection are progged to exceed 1"/hr
(30-50% chance from the REFS/HREF/WoFS), with rates to 2"/hr at
times also possible within the robust thermodynamics. As these
cells organize into clusters through 30-40 kts of effective bulk
shear, they will then train to the ENE along the boundary, leading
to axes of rainfall that could (20-40% chance) exceed 3", with
locally higher amounts embedded. This will likely cause flash
flooding, especially where any training occurs atop urban or more
vulnerable terrain areas.

While somewhat removed from the primary surface trough, convection
developing along the cold front will initially be weaker until
these features merge into the LLJ later this evening. However,
thermodynamics immediately along the front are still sufficient to
support 1"/hr rainfall, and if this moves across the portions of
southern IL already impacted by heavy rainfall today, renewed or
exacerbated flash flooding could result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6GoicqMuVmS9ZkSEXfRa9epcVKAdd2LX91gJemlDBv8nqTIo40Nqw4UZ5jffaG7Mrznp= mokepqlGP4WYaXpZN-gJD6k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...
PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39798685 39648530 39538373 38758369 38348405=20
37988473 37688578 37108722 36508901 36429020=20
36449167 36579238 36839263 37319221 37819135=20
38489055 39099017 39388958 39558891 39738796=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220349
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-220815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0494
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...southern Kansas into Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220347Z - 220815Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across OK
over the next 2-4 hours. At least isolated flash flooding will
become likely later in the night with hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches and peak hourly totals near 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0330Z showed a few, widely
scattered thunderstorms over northern OK into southwestern MO,
located along a west-east oriented front/outflow combination (or
effective front). Over southwestern KS, an organized convective
complex was advancing southeastward with a U-shaped cold pool
approaching the northern TX Panhandle and a west-east wing of
reflectivity on radar extending eastward into southern KS, likely
tied to the true synoptic front farther north in KS. The
environment across much of OK was strongly unstable with
approximately 3000 to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE, and anomalously moist with
PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches.

As the thunderstorm cluster over southern KS continues to advance
southward with the effective cold front(s), it will be met with an
increasing low level jet across the southern High Plains.
Increasing low level convergence with the highly unstable and
moist airmass will lead to the development of numerous
thunderstorms by 06Z, with some potential for development out
ahead of the advancing cluster approaching from southwestern KS.
Short term guidance from the HRRR has been consistent with the
eventual merging of storms into an MCS with southeastward
propagation across OK, but with merging and short term training of
cells prior to the faster forward propagation that likely develops
later tonight. There will be the potential for high rain rates of
at least 1 to 2 inches in an hour or less, along with more
localized hourly totals near 3 inches. These high rates will pose
at least an isolated flash flood threat, despite the drought
conditions in place over central to western OK, as the high rates
overwhelm infiltration capacity. This will especially be true
should overlap of high rain rates occur with any urban areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6oEYoT8yorMUp4eleZimUM7UNqH7sduu9Gd9V5ZCV_LCa0diSUXqVL0E4z_8z2Rn0Syr= bWpW0swTXhsPdGerfkbtuUU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37729892 37669791 37409681 37219613 36799536=20
36099470 35219487 34579787 35679937 36820013=20
37579997=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220720
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-221300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0495
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern OK into central/northern AR and
western TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220719Z - 221300Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be likely across portions
of central to eastern OK into central/northern AR and possibly
western TN through 13Z. Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches is
expected with storm total rainfall in excess of 5 inches possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 07Z showed a strong bow echo
moving through central OK with a northern bookend vortex/MCV in
northern OK, near I-35. Meanwhile, a broken axis of thunderstorms
marked the location of an outflow/effective frontal boundary which
extended east from the northern OK vortex into far southwestern
MO, before arcing southward into northeastern AR. The environment
across OK and AR, ahead of the bow echo and south of the effective
front, contained strong instability with 2000 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
(SPC mesoanalysis) and PWs of 1.6 to 2.0 inches (GPS sensors).

The bookend vortex/MCV in northern OK is forecast to track
generally toward the east over the next 3-5 hours with southerly
low level flow out ahead, interacting with the west-east boundary
across northeastern OK into northern AR. Some local enhancement to
the southerly low level flow is likely just ahead of the advancing
bow echo. As the system track eastward toward AR, the west-east
boundary out ahead of the bow echo may be slow to advance
southward (outside of outflow). With mean steering flow directing
individual cells from west to east with variable speeds of 10-20
kt, similar to the orientation of the initiating boundary,
favoring areas of training.

Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be likely, with peak hourly
totals near or in excess of 3 inches possible on a localized
basis. The slow movement of heavy rain cores, whether near/ahead
the northern MCV or along the downstream boundary, could allow for
isolated storm total rainfall in excess of 5 inches through 13Z.
Areas of flash flooding will be likely, some of which could be
significant.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!60gUltnkne7N-2wh6zpfueKhOiS2WmmegtijNUvJoF__myjCaFATlh9Z1wb6K8xOc5Ue= Zvs8Qw-MmUd85a8GoRJP3uw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36759437 36599301 36539164 36489080 36448983=20
36328946 36138895 35738870 35378886 35108935=20
34948962 34699015 34559094 34449139 34409196=20
34369307 34199459 34299551 34709629 35209701=20
35889716 36609673 36749549=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220817
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-221345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0496
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...southern IN into central KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220816Z - 221345Z

SUMMARY...An isolated to widely scattered flash flood threat will
linger across portions of southern IN into central KY over the
next several hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, but possibly
higher on an isolated basis, are expected. Any additional areas of
flash flooding should remain low in coverage.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 08Z continued to indicate scattered
thunderstorms from southern IN into portions of central KY,
located near a rain-cooled outflow boundary that extended from
near EVV to FTK to just north of DVK. The west to east orientation
of this boundary has been similar to average cell motions with low
level flow to the east of a cold front over IL, supporting
overrunning of the rain-cooled airmass and continued areas of repeating/training. SPC mesoanalysis data from 08Z showed MLCAPE
of 500 to 1500+ over central to western KY (highest to west),
which has been edging eastward over the past 3-6 hours.

Until a shortwave trough over southern MI into IL advances east,
low level winds will continue with enough of a southerly component
to maintain the potential for scattered thunderstorms from
southern IN into central KY, near the slow moving outflow
boundary. Veering of the low level flow is forecast after 12Z
which, along with the cold front approaching from the west, should
disrupt the ongoing pattern favorable for repeating and brief
training of thunderstorms across the OH Valley. Until that happens
however, an isolated to widely scattered flash flood threat will
remain with potential for 1 to 2+ in/hr rain rates and additional
totals of 2 to 4 inches on an isolated basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8opfzg3-gRjJgrnlFQMB3ViojT_mJOuj5pttQGFocDDOBZrJ3ZO4i-6ne8N_YK9hrOM6= ciZfQSUcweSqEbpmc_0SrI8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38838560 38468369 37898313 37308342 37198528=20
37568787 38608752=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221019
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0497
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
618 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...northern AR into western TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221014Z - 221415Z

SUMMARY...An axis of significant, life-threatening, heavy rainfall
is expected to impact northern AR into portions of western TN over
the next 2-4 hours. Hourly rainfall in excess of 2 inches and
totals of 3 to 6+ inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...10Z radar imagery showed an MCS with a leading bow
echo advancing across eastern OK with a pronounced MCV between
Tulsa and Muskogee. To the east of the MCS, a west-east oriented
line of thunderstorms was slowly advancing south across
northwestern and northern AR, toward developing showers and
thunderstorms moving E to NE across north-central AR, within the
warm advection wing of the MCS. The southward propagation of the
west-east axis across northern AR is expected to slow or stall in
advance of the approaching MCV, forecast to track toward the E or
ESE over the next 2-4 hours.

The expected stalling of the heavy rainfall axis is likely to
support a few areas of extended training from west to east with
hourly rainfall peaking in the 2 to 3 inch range (locally higher
possible). The result is likely to be a roughly west to east axis
of heavy rain across northern AR, eventually reaching into western
TN. Rainfall totals within the axis of training will likely reach
3 to 6 inches in a few places, although locally higher totals
cannot be ruled out. These high rates will likely lead to some
considerable areas of flash flooding with potential for
life-threatening impacts. The flash flood threat is expected to
linger beyond 14Z for the region with a recent upgrade to Moderate
Risk on the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7vHnkIwaUPwcufKx4xbs5NvYhxaO0k8eNaWSpck0Jz7QubQdNZ_uSGYGaag1FfXc9MFi= oLOPgIk_QruQsnHIRIptcKo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36179334 36119158 35988924 35108903 34828999=20
34779173 35099434 36069430=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221434
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221832-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0498
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern into middle Tennessee,
far northern Mississippi, far northern Alabama, far eastern
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221432Z - 221832Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flood potential exist across
portions of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley for a few hours
this morning.

Discussion...Mature MCS continues to migrate eastward across
eastern Arkansas this morning. That MCS is interacting favorably
with additional convection over northeastern AR/western Tennessee
this morning (that has developed a mature cold pool) to produce
widespread convection and occasional heavy rain rates at times
across the discussion area. Local FFG exceedance was also noted
near/south of Jonesboro and in localized areas southwest of
Nashville (near Waynesville).

Southwesterly low-level flow and heating/moistening ahead of both
complexes suggests that convection will persist for at least
another 2-4 hours especially across southwestern and Middle
Tennessee. Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates will occur atop
already wet soils from this morning's storms. Isolated flash
flooding is expected - particularly from Memphis east through
Waynesboro where FFG and urbanization suggests these locales are
most sensitive in the short term.

The overall convective scenario is being handled poorly by most
models this morning - especially with respect to cold pool
strength across western Tennessee. Current expectations are that
the greatest heavy rainfall risk will focus along the current
southern edge of this cold pool (near the MS/AL/TN border and
points just north) for the next few hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7s5ls9rMC_72InD2Czcam_7-fX22tksigMUAG6jJ6mIIeg4ql32VoSWv0pW7Cs2s59E9= Nnh6v4ZjUK2mnWYc0FLxKmE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36298767 36108607 35228575 34628645 34258787=20
34159105 35529156 36109063=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222013
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0499
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222015Z - 230200Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will gradually increase in
coverage across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Rainfall rates of
2+"/hr are likely in the stronger thunderstorms, leading to 2-3"
of rainfall with locally higher amounts. Isolated flash flooding,
especially across urban areas, is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase experimental RGB this
afternoon shows rapid expansion of glaciation within deepening Cu
and TCu from eastern TN northeast into the Tri-State region of
NY/NJ/CT. These agitated clouds are associated with increasing
convective activity noted via the regional radar mosaic
immediately in the wake of a warm front that has lifted towards
Long Island. A subsequent cold front is analyzed by WPC from
western PA through southern OH, placing much of the Mid-Atlantic
states within this broadening warm sector characterized by PWs of
1.7-1.9 inches, well above the 90th percentile for the date, and
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Within this destabilizing environment,
recent convection has created 15-min rainfall measured by MRMS of
as much as 0.5" (2"/hr rates).

Storms have been generally fast moving to the northeast on mean
850-300mb winds of 30-35 kts so far today. This is expected to
continue through the evening. However, nearly unidirectional shear
and aligned Corfidi vectors suggest storms will repeat from SW to
NE, and with 0-6km effective shear reaching 40 kts, some short
term training is likely where storms organize into multi-cells or
supercells. Both the HREF and REFS indicate a 10-30% chance of
2"/hr rain rates this evening, while the sub-hourly HRRR suggests
isolated pockets of 3"/hr (0.5-0.75" in 15 mins) are possible, and
this is supported by the impressive thermodynamics in place. Any
location that experiences multiple rounds of these intense rates
could receive 2-3" of rainfall with locally higher amounts.

This region is experiencing a significant drought (much of the
area D2 to D3 drought), and this is reflected by 0-40cm soil
moisture from NASA SPoRT that is almost uniformly below the 10th
percentile. This will limit the flash flood risk in many areas.
However, the urban corridor along I-95 and other cities still
exhibit locally lower FFG and are more susceptible to flash flood
impacts. Should any short-term training or repeating heavy-rain
producing cells move across these areas, flash flood impacts would
be more likely.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4153nezFwd98uDGVH2luYa7L50Txnq1x5_GPBPkDcZ8kzjQQb8DrA8cEZIq4NbyqSHAF= jME19WAVJ98-zoFmWTnRcW8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41047394 40857370 40647378 40197402 39307441=20
38377496 37617549 36837712 36797786 36887886=20
37057931 37307950 37687951 38017920 38477871=20
38907812 39427756 39907683 40467607 40787504=20
40947449=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222048
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0500
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222047Z - 230200Z

Summary...Thunderstorms blossoming ahead of a cold front will
expand from the Ohio Valley through the Central Appalachians this
afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr are likely, which
could produce 1-3" of rain and instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this aftn shows rapidly
expanding coverage of thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold
front from southern OH through eastern KY and into parts of WV/VA.
These thunderstorms are developing within a broadening warm sector
as a warm front lifts north through PA, and thermodynamics within
this region are impressive with PWs measured by GPS of 1.7 to 1.9
inches overlapped with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Broad SW flow
ahead of the cold front is helping to draw even more robust moisture/instability northeastward into the region as well, so
although convection is already widespread, additional development
with intensification is expected, and is likely underway as
reflected by an increase in elevated LightningCast probabilities.

The high-res CAMs are in good agreement that convection will
become widespread through this evening as ascent maximizes within
the destabilizing warm sector. Low-level convergence and upper
diffluence combined will help create deep layer lift, resulting in
rainfall rates for which both the HREF and REFS indicate have a
15-25% chance of exceeding 2"/hr. While 0-6km mean winds are
expected to remain progressive to the northeast at 30-40 kts,
increasing bulk shear around 35 kts will help organize cells into
clusters, which will allow for at least short-term training.
Additionally, mean wind aligning to the front as it drops
southeast will also support some enhanced training along this
boundary. Where training/repeating is most pronounced, rainfall
could reach 3" (10-20% chance).

7-day rainfall across this area has been generally below normal,
but some locations have picked up more than 150% of normal
rainfall during the last week. This has resulted in some
compromised FFG to as low as 1.5"/3hrs, especially west of the
Blue Ridge. Although HREF 3-hr FFG exceedance probabilities are
modest at 10-20%, the generally vulnerable terrain across this
area combined with locally lower FFG suggests scattered instances
of flash flooding are possible until the cold front crosses
through the region by tonight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6hY3Pvf5kdf47-7USPaNBSYq_AdDvwpOpPGfDGayyalSxUC431UN6blqSDYYC6pfu9jg= hmHTz-ob624_7Sx8cfLoNDs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40927858 40757751 40417682 39887691 39347743=20
38447858 37727953 37128042 36988121 36908176=20
36778234 36728301 36898326 37408333 38018331=20
38648318 39568261 39868205 40318080 40827952=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230004
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-230600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0501
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
803 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...Western North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230002Z - 230600Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage across North
Dakota and then train to the northeast before exiting tonight.
Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are expected, which could produce 2-4"
of rainfall. Isolated flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows
expanding convection oriented across portions of western North
Dakota. These thunderstorms are blossoming within a broadening
warm sector south of a warm front, with ascent being aided by a
shortwave lifting across SW ND, and diffluence within the LFQ of
an approaching jet streak. Thermodynamics across the region are
favorable for heavy rainfall, with PWs over 1 inch (nearing the
90th percentile for the date) and MLCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg.
Convection has generally been scattered ahead of the approaching stationary/cold front, but some organization into a line is noted
along the elevated 850mb front where convergence is occurring on
SW inflow of 10-15 kts.

The high-res guidance varies in its evolution tonight, but there
appears to be an increasing risk for at least isolated flash
flooding the next several hours. Storms should continue to develop
along the elevated front as a plume of MLCAPE > 500 J/kg persists
within the warm sector, tapped by convergence into the boundary
which should strengthen as 850mb winds increase subtly to 20 kts.
At the same time, the increasing synoptic ascent (responding to
the shortwave and approaching jet streak) will spread over the
warm sector leading to increased convective coverage. Rainfall
rates within these storms have a 30-50% chance of exceeding 1"/hr,
which through training and repeating could result in 3+" of
rainfall (10-25% chance from the REFS/HREF). Most of this rain is
expected in the next few hours, as after about 04Z-05Z the
guidance suggests instability will wane and a larger area of
residual moderate rain will move more steadily eastward just ahead
of the cold front.

The soils across this region are generally drier than normal, so
other than where the heaviest rain rates train, most of this could
permeate into the soils restricting the runoff/flash flood
potential. However, isolated instances of flash flood are still
possible where the most prolonged training of these intense rates
occurs, or should any convection linger across more developed
areas.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6K0G75Bbh19xJx8rn9aWEaR2RJox1hY81v_kXtAFNEf_y5-I-LhMZQpkLnHgvKy991nE= Hd6zeHGnMD2HrmMvcy3XDg0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49040137 48860035 48460004 47930028 47120087=20
46570159 46200228 45970295 45910347 45930384=20
46390418 47310415 48090397 48490377 48910323=20
49020231=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230124
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-230700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0502
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
923 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...ArkLaTex through the Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230122Z - 230700Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing ahead of a slow moving
stationary/cold front will expand across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Arklatex tonight. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr are
likely at times, which through training will produce 2-3" of rain
with locally higher amounts approaching 5". Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The latest WPC surface analysis indicates a complex
surface pattern evolving across the Arklatex and Lower Mississippi
Valley tonight. A wavering stationary front remains draped from
far northeast TX, along the LA/AR border, and into central MS,
while a surface trough/residual outflow boundary drapes just to
the south of the front. Southwesterly flow emerging from the Gulf
transporting robust thermodynamics northward, with PWs measured by
GPS of 1.9 to 2.1 inches, overlapping a plume of MLCAPE between
3000-4000 J/kg. This inflow (measured via VWPs of 15-20 kts) is
also isentropically ascending the surface front, leading to
enhanced convergence and pockets of recent convective development
with MRMS hourly rainfall of 0.75 to 1.00 inches.

During the next few hours, the front and surface boundary should
remain wavering across the region, but low-level inflow is progged
to intensify to 20-25 kts to resupply the impressive
thermodynamics and force stronger convergence across the region.
This will result in more widespread convective development as
reflected by available high-res guidance, with storms developing=20
and then training to the E/SE on 0-6km mean winds parallel to the
boundary at around 15 kts. These thunderstorms could contain
rainfall rates of greater than 2"/hr (20-30% chance from the
HREF/REFS), with brief rates above 3"/hr (15-min HRRR up to
0.75"). Since these storms are expected to regenerate and train
along the boundary, this will likely produce a narrow corridor of
rainfall reaching 2-3", with locally up to 5" possible (10-20%
chance).

Recent rainfall across the area has been excessive, with much of
the region experiencing 200-400% of normal rain during the past 7
days. This has led to 0-10cm RSM from NASA SPoRT that is generally
60-80%, suggesting that soil permeability is low and heavy rain
will quickly result in runoff. Where the most substantial training
can occur, this runoff could produce instances of flash flooding
into the overnight hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4vKEWnjfuspg5Q4qRhTLRK7BQbKJb-ClJE1OB_w8rd9EB_FqK5kufCAp1XM5H5-3o0PM= MkSOrUnKdcUwnn9J1DQS7tA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FWD...JAN...LZK...MOB...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34129614 34039537 33809437 33389119 33319002=20
33168902 32588757 32258727 31808739 31738808=20
31738883 31698992 31739165 31959325 32199469=20
32699596 33119649 33489691 33849706 34119696=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230405
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-230945-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0503
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1204 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Mid-Atlantic, southern NY
into southern New England and coastal ME

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230403Z - 230945Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding, mainly urban in nature, will be
possible across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic into
southern NY, southern New England and coastal ME through the
overnight hours. 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour or less, and
sub-hourly rates near 0.5 inches in 15 minutes, are expected.

Discussion...Area radar imagery at 0345Z showed scattered
thunderstorms from eastern PA into north-central NJ into portions
of NYC, producing locally heavy rain with gauges from the
Wunderground network showing 0.5 to 0.75 inches in 15 minutes with
a few of the cells. Infrared satellite and radar imagery loops
helped identify a couple of weak lower level
circulations/vorticity maxima/MCVs within the WSW flow aloft, one
over eastern NY to the north of Albany and another over
southeastern PA. These features were ahead of an 850 mb low
located southeast of Lake Ontario. Up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE was
estimated over southeastern PA to Long Island, and elevated
instability was slightly higher via SPC mesoanalysis data. While
instability was weak, cells were taking advantage of anomalous
moisture over the region. In fact, low level moisture was
increasing as seen on OSPO ALPW imagery below 700 mb via 20-30 kt
of SSW 925-850 mb winds.

Instability is likely to remain weak through the overnight hours
but satellite and radar trends suggest that additional
thunderstorms will be likely with the greatest potential for
higher rates from northern NJ into portions of southern NY, CT, RI
and MA. 15-minute rainfall rates of 0.5 to 0.75 inches and hourly
totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected within the strongest cells
due to short term training. These higher rainfall rates may
produce isolated flash flooding with a threat mainly across any
urban or otherwise low-lying/poorly draining regions of the
Northeast.

Farther north into coastal ME, instability is expected to remain
below 500 J/kg, but moisture advection from the south should allow
for an uptick in rainfall intensity over the next few hours as
ongoing showers over MA and southern VT/NH advance northeastward.
An embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for these northern
locations, but the potential for repeating cells with rates
peaking over 0.5 inches per hour may allow for 1 to 2+ inches
along coastal sections of ME through the overnight.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5YzfbwwX18W7zb6ejNwI_U661eB4I5nvUI76cGsZ_uP6nw2eZON_TrHG10vcXS33VAq1= 20g_7WjB9yDvnivEJbebOB4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...CAR...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44786787 44336762 43276911 42247059 41257141=20
40807210 40527346 40357452 40337514 40577585=20
41177540 41777473 42407369 43027260 43597176=20
44027057 44726894=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230711
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-231300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0504
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...southeastern OK/northeastern TX into southern AR
and northern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230709Z - 231300Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be likely across portions of the
eastern TX/OK border into southern AR and northern LA, especially
in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex through the remainder of the
overnight hours. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches and additional
rainfall of 4 to 6 inches (locally higher) can be expected on an
isolated basis through 13Z (8 AM CDT).

DISCUSSION...0630Z radar imagery and surface observations showed a
NW to SE oriented axis of thunderstorms extending from the
ArkLaTex into northern LA, just north of an outflow boundary that
continued eastward into central MS. To the north of the
thunderstorms, a slow moving frontal boundary was analyzed roughly
east to west from central MS into northern TX. SPC mesoanalysis
data from 06Z showed 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with 2.0 to 2.3 inches
of precipitable water located along the front and outflow
boundary, along with marginally supportive effective bulk shear
values of 25-30 kt for organized cells.

Of greatest near term concern is a cluster of cells that have
trained across I-20 near Ruston, LA with 2-5 inch estimates over
the past 4 hours via gauges and MRMS. The outflow boundary was
observed to be edging westward toward Webster Parish and low level
flow overrunning the boundary should support additional
thunderstorms to build westward toward the ArkLaTex over the next
few hours where cell training was already occurring. The
environment will be supportive of hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches
(locally higher) at times where cells train, with potential for
localized totals of 4 to 6+ inches through 13Z. These high
rainfall values will likely lead to flash flooding, with
considerable impacts possible, especially given above average
rainfall for the region over the past week.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!58wywSGCZPMtIhayX13SxmcLmCiB9ztmJdlWlTgRkP1zM4DFwdL5r2woUDbH-bVEk7Qt= 7vCKyTJbkQitHtjpbUlPBgw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34349558 33669379 33019193 32369131 31889151=20
31829208 32019333 32469497 32889599 33539679=20
34229660=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231224
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-231822-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0505
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...Western KS, NE and OK Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231222Z - 231822Z

Summary...Convection exhibiting backbuilding characteristics will
maintain an isolated flash flood threat across the High Plains
through the morning hours.

Discussion...Regional radar and IR imagery show an area of robust
convection persisting across portions of the High Plains. This
activity is being sustained by strong low-level moisture transport
and persistent low-level convergence situated to the east of a
surface low centered over northeast Colorado. This axis of
low-level ascent and moisture convergence is expected to persist
through the morning hours.

Recent mesoanalysis indicates moderate MUCAPE values currently
ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. A notable increase in low level
moisture and a destabilization trend early this morning, with
MUCAPE having increased by roughly 400 to 600 J/kg, likely
produced this convective uptick. Steep mid-level lapse rates
support some hail production, but hourly rainfall of 1-2" is still
probable in any storms that briefly train.

The setup is favorable for some training and backbuilding
convection. While the mean cloud-layer flow is westerly, Corfidi
vectors are oriented from the north-northwest. This is allowing
new convective cores to periodically backbuild westward into the
better instability pool. Recent IR satellite trends corroborate
this updraft maintenance, displaying steady to actively cooling
cloud tops over the region.

Given the persistent low-level convergence and backbuilding
potential, this convection is expected to maintain its intensity
and coverage over the next several hours. It does seem
increasingly likely that the convection over western NE will grow
upscale into a small MCS and drop southward across southwest NE
into western KS. While this activity should be primarily
forward-propagating, it may overrun downstream convection,
resulting in potential training and a locally increased flash
flood risk.

Where repeated tracking of heavy convective cores over the same
areas occurs, at least an isolated flash flood risk will exist
through the morning. Hourly rainfall should generally stay in the
1?2" range, although it could locally exceed 2" where training is
maximized. Storm total rainfall through 18Z will likely exceed 3"
locally across the region.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-nhrtn8iCS_e6fzwDd8mgH9zNQjDSgpHTWTcHXBLq1cICTCYHIUCcUB9AybSCPn12j0j= hD1cUWEqejmBbIBx5KPlvcA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41110029 39779993 36999941 35839938 36100036=20
36940112 38380136 40920155=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231311
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-231809-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0506
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...Southeast OK, Northeast TX, Southwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 231309Z - 231809Z

Summary...Flash flooding is currently ongoing along the Red River.
Backbuilding convection producing localized 2?3"/hr rainfall rates
will likely persist for at least a few more hours, leading to
additional and potentially significant flash flooding.

Discussion...As of 13z, Regional radar and IR imagery show a
persistent, organized area of robust convection anchored along the
Red River near the intersection of the Texas, Oklahoma, and
Arkansas borders. This backbuilding convection is focused along a
well-defined axis of low-level convergence. The mesoscale
environment remains exceptionally moist and supportive of heavy
rainfall rates, with precipitable water values in excess of 2".
This is driving efficient precipitation production, with localized
rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr within the strongest convective cores.

Recent high-resolution model guidance has suggested that the
low-level jet and its associated low-level convergence should be
on a downward trend this morning. This should result in a gradual
decrease in convective intensity and coverage as the morning
progresses. However, current observations contradict this modeled
weakening from the HRRR, with both radar and IR imagery showing
continued persistence and updraft maintenance. It seems probable
that the ongoing convection is organized enough to have locally
enhanced the low-level convergence via mesoscale boundaries.

The evolution later this morning remains a bit uncertain. MUCAPE
over 2000 J/kg supports deep convective growth; however, how the
low-level convergence evolves will be the key factor. Any subtle
uptick in the low-level jet (as hinted at by recent runs of the
HRRR) could be enough to sustain this activity, with just some
slow southward propagation. Conversely, it is also possible that
the convergence eventually weakens just enough to decrease
convective coverage and organization with time. Given these
conflicting signals, near-term trends will need to be monitored
closely.

Either way, at least a few more hours of persistence appears
likely, with training and backbuilding convection continuing. With
highly efficient 2?3"/hr rainfall rates falling over rapidly
saturating ground conditions, and with flash flooding already
ongoing across the region, additional instances of flash flooding
are likely. Given the intense rates and expected accumulations,
some of this flash flooding may become locally significant in
nature over the next few hours.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6H5RfO5-g1phQScQMd3VC1LMVmTSEJDpsCqcixoDyjAa37M4p9VD8VhLgxiZJQwmIjqK= 2LuRtz560UeKl4dFwk_AM3s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34599603 33749403 33039351 32719374 33269523=20
33779622=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231617
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-232215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0507
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...Northeast NC, Southeast VA, Southeast MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 231615Z - 232215Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon. While fast cell motions will limit the
duration of heavy rainfall at any single location, highly
efficient rainfall rates and cell mergers will support a threat
for scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Morning sunshine across eastern North Carolina and
southeast Virginia has allowed for robust surface heating and
rapid destabilization. Recent mesoanalysis indicates a 3-hour
increase in surface-based CAPE of approximately 1000 J/kg, with
values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Concurrently, deep moisture is pooling
across the region, with precipitable water values forecast within
the 1.7" to 2" range. This unstable and moist environment will be
favorable for heavy rainfall rates.

Synoptic-scale ascent is robust across the region, aided by strong
forcing ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave and favorable
upper-level divergence situated within the right entrance region
of a jet streak. As this forcing interacts with the destabilizing
airmass, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to
rapidly develop and expand in coverage this afternoon. Effective
bulk shear values around 30kts will allow for a degree of
convective organization.

While individual cell motions are expected to be relatively quick
(a mitigating factor that should limit the absolute upper bound of
the rainfall accumulations) these storms will be efficient
rainfall producers. Furthermore, as convective coverage increases,
cell mergers and brief periods of training will become
increasingly likely, especially near a front dropping southward
across VA.

The 12Z HREF indicates impressive 40?60% neighborhood
probabilities for 2"/hr rainfall rates, with 10?30% probabilities
for localized 3"/hr rates. These intense bursts of rainfall can
easily overwhelm local drainage infrastructure and sensitive urban
areas. Consequently, both the 12Z HREF and the REFS depict 3-hour
Flash Flood Guidance exceedance probabilities over 40%, with a
notable focus across southeast Virginia. Given the combination of
high rates and increasing convective coverage, scattered instances
of flash flooding are anticipated through the afternoon.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5YrCjAa7lHYA4sHjknL1cKN_aJElIXM9cejhVF4BXNalilGU1icPkkBKLZL5LtTANYYK= 2geCKZe1YPXLv4tuJOMpZw0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38447573 38427523 38237508 37557551 36977580=20
36317586 35727664 35527734 35577829 35757880=20
36147884 36647863 37427793 38087706 38307627=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231715
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-232313-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0508
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...Central and eastern OK into Southeast KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231713Z - 232313Z

Summary...The intersection of multiple convective boundaries
within a unstable and moisture rich environment will support a
flash flood threat this afternoon. While exact convective
evolution remains uncertain, weak mean flow and boundary
interactions will promote slow moving, efficient rainfall
producers.

Discussion...Regional radar and satellite imagery across Oklahoma
and southeast Kansas present a complex mesoscale scenario
featuring two distinct areas of active convection. The first is an
area of convection over southeast Oklahoma that has been slowly
backbuilding to the west along an outflow boundary. The second is
an area of convection steadily moving southeastward across
northern/central Oklahoma. In between these two convective zones,
an unstable airmass resides, characterized by MUCAPE values of
2000 to 3000 J/kg.

The exact convective evolution and organization over the next
several hours carries lower than average confidence due to the
chaotic nature of the ongoing boundary interactions. However, as
these two areas of convection and their respective cold
pools/outflow boundaries converge, low-level lift should trigger
renewed convective development within the unstable intermediate
airmass.

Deep layer mean flow across the region is generally weak out of
the west. Consequently, convective movement will be heavily
dictated by propagation along outflow boundaries. This slow,
boundary-driven movement, combined with cell mergers and localized
training, will result in an increased duration of high rainfall
rates over localized areas.

Thermodynamic profiles are supportive for heavy rainfall rates.
Precipitable water values are hovering around 2.0 inches, which is
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Storms tapping
into this deep moisture will be highly efficient rainfall
producers, capable of generating intense rainfall rates that could
quickly overwhelm local drainage networks and sensitive basins.
Given the high rate potential and the likelihood of boundary
focused development, at least an isolated flash flood threat is
anticipated to continue through the afternoon hours.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_2f-JAJmdNSOEyShopv0Wadk3gmdQQdi4MCFUmdDczq1mTgsA85JtkzPPgghJTN_O2Ks= TsU6kk1evBT19UpX0ST1_5M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37499536 37239446 35649497 34669568 34199601=20
34069670 34509782 35159866 35819854 36499739=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232137
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-240035-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0509
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Missouri, northwestern
Arkansas, and southeastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232135Z - 240035Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will spread northeastward as
thunderstorms over northeastern Oklahoma produce heavy rainfall.

Discussion...An eastward-moving convective complex is maintaining
organization while slowly propagating northeastward toward the
KS/OK/MO border region. This complex was producing areas of 2-3
inch/hr rain rates, which isn't surprising given slow overall
storm movement, weak steering flow aloft (around 20 knots), and
1500-2000 J/kg of downstream instability supporting strong
updrafts. This complex will move into southwestern Missouri and
vicinity soon, with areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds and
numerous low-water crossings/sensitive terrain supporting at least
an isolated/localized flash flood risk.

The duration of this risk extending beyond a couple hours is
uncertain. Instability and shear drops off with eastern extent
into central Missouri, and deep convection may not be readily
sustained even in the presence of a mature, expanding upstream
cold pool. Flash flooding is possible through 23Z, but more
conditional thereafter.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8kOIoLOW8JKtzN8ifjuxmemJxqrvLZ2HmLWbo1waNW76Jigq-zj_1i8P54cxMgxrYh8U= IxnI5lhmgEPej8Qb2VsYgks$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38469555 38339414 38019272 36949228 36349269=20
36429414 37109500 37739582=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232157
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-240356-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0510
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...far southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas
into the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 232156Z - 240356Z

Summary...Deep convection was redeveloping into areas along the
Red River Valley that experienced abundant heavy rainfall this
morning. Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...An earlier, anomalously propagating MCS has merged
with convection over south-central Oklahoma to produce a
pronounced, southeastward-moving bowing segment near Durant, OK
currently. Just ahead of this bowing segment, an
east-west-oriented band of convection was developing quickly along
remnant outflow from prior convection very near the Red River and
the Paris, TX vicinity. The storms were being supported by an
extremely buoyant upstream airmass, with 3500 J/kg MLCAPE
estimated per objective analyses over east Texas in conjunction
with near 2 inch PW values. Convergence along the outflow and the
approaching MCS will result in another couple rounds of deep
convection occurring across areas that have already experienced
2-8 inches of rainfall from morning convection - particularly
along the US 70, US 82, and Red River vicinities across the
discussion area. Latest FFG thresholds are near zero in parts of
this region, suggesting that recovery from prior rainfall is not
quite complete and many areas may be sensitive to any additional
rainfall. Locally significant impacts are possible - especially
given the fact that FFG exceedences may well exceed local
thresholds. Latest observational trends suggest that the
developing southern OK complex may reach areas of I-20 and the Shreveport/Texarkana vicinity after 01Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5sbhkoUI4wYb6BYCuFrCFm2PRVtBkgwxLxY98nmZ3Uz8cBm2BFHBp70HAsJ8WHEVH31I= 0IJSF4pcXv716Y0XGs2z_n4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34839631 34809549 34439444 33849355 32889327=20
32289336 32229454 32729622 33579723 34329720=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232225
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-240423-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle and Texas South
Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232223Z - 240423Z

Summary...Scattered convection was increasing in coverage and
exhibiting slow movement over the past hour. Isolated flash flood
potential exists through at least 03Z/10p central.

Discussion...In the past hour, robust convection has developed
along and just east of a remnant outflow boundary that stretches
from near Vega (west of Amarillo) south-southeast to near
Plainview. Low-level confluence along this outflow was likely
contributing to the deep convection, while extremely unstable
mid-levels (~8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates) was contributing to
higher-based convective development west of the aforementioned
outflow. A couple of the cells near/just east of the outflow were
exhibiting strongly deviant and slow storm motions (southward at
around 10-15 knots), and the cell west of Amarillo was already
producing 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates (estimated per MRMS). The
overall scenario (with dominant cells making a hard right near the
outflow and higher-based convection merging into those dominant
cells), suggests that isolated instances of 2 inch/hr rain rates
could be observed at times through at least 03Z/10p central.

These rain rates are expected to occur atop FFG thresholds of
around 2 inch/hr in most areas (locally higher). This suggest
that flash flood potential should be fairly isolated, but focused
around low-lying areas and tied to mergers near dominant,
right-moving convection.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6G6Q6Z8zwfRxVT88T3fP0UuzTBgbsioNk7ZKvdx8oTrMeSuHndgTjZmsMFTS5-xWToDa= n5NGAprrg5f6Mg7TKbmi1dA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36200293 36050164 35060040 33280011 32660110=20
32970336 35310348=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240415
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0512
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1214 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...eastern CO into adjacent High Plains (portions of
NE, KS, OK and NM)

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240410Z - 240915Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms with organization into a cluster
or two over eastern CO may result in isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding over the next 4-5 hours. Total rainfall of 2 to 3
inches will be possible (locally higher possible).

Discussion...Area radar imagery through 0345Z over eastern CO
showed scattered thunderstorms with increasing coverage in a north
south fashion, roughly 30-60 miles east of I-25, except in
southern CO from Pueblo southward, where cells were closer to
I-25. 850-700 mb winds were from the S to SE at 20-30 kt from the
TX Panhandle into southeastern CO, overrunning a stationary front
while 850 mb winds were from the E to ESE (upslope) at ~30 kt a
little farther north as seen in VAD wind data from KFTG and KPUX.
While CIN varied across the region, MLCAPE was 1500 J/kg to near
4000 J/kg (highest over southeastern CO via SPC mesoanalysis),
with anomalous PWs containing standardized anomalies of +1 to +2
over the central High Plains.

Shear/instability profiles were more than sufficient for
organization of cells with supercells already observed. The
greatest uncertainty is with which specific areas within eastern
CO/western KS have the greatest potential to see higher rain
rates/possible flash flooding. Radar trends and recent cycles of
the HRRR and WoFS suggest one or two organized clusters developing
overnight beneath steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km. Recent
WoFS cycles support the highest probabilities of exceeding 2
inches over southeastern CO (up to 40 percent through 08Z/09Z).
Mean movement of cells/clusters should be off toward the E or SE.
Some short term, upstream cell development will be possible with
any organization of cells/clusters with repeating and training,
supporting potential for flash flooding. Hourly rainfall of 1 to
2+ inches will be possible with storm totals of 2 to 3+ inches
through 09Z. Portions of the High Plains are more sensitive to
runoff than others due to recent heavy rain, with the flash flood
risk naturally greater across these more sensitive regions
containing higher soil moisture.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!46Wi4huFU1--5QQWlJPyGoRH5e_LmJtl177dBM0NMgTKApNcOpeeR6u5aogtrFbLUBgH= UOqmHx-2xpdG6ENpTENkR64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41210218 40620049 39250023 37700083 36680146=20
36710350 37270435 38840470 40030451 40930354=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240741
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0513
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...western/southern AR into adjacent portions of OK,
TX and LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240738Z - 241300Z

SUMMARY...While some questions remain on coverage and intensity, a
few areas of flash flooding may develop across portions of
western/southern AR into adjacent portions of OK, TX and LA on an
isolated basis through 13Z. Slow cell motions and training could
allow for 1 to 2+ in/hr rates and 2 to 4+ inch total rainfall over
the next 5 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 0730Z showed a weakening MCS
advancing ESE into western MS, just north of an outflow reinforced
frontal boundary which extended from northeastern TX into
north-central LA and southern MS. Behind the MCS, a few elevated
showers and thunderstorms were increasing in coverage from
northern LA into southwestern AR. VAD wind data in the 925-850 mb
layer showed some modest strengthening over the past couple of
hours into the 25-30 kt range from the SSW, helping to remove
lingering lower level convective inhibition centered near 850 mb.

Low level flow overrunning the surface boundary has set up a
convergence axis in the 925-850 mb layer, aligned from eastern OK
into northwestern LA. This zome of convergence is likely to focus
an increasing coverage of elevated thunderstorms over the next few
hours, beneath increasingly diffluient flow aloft in the 300-400
mb layer. The convergence axis was aligned with a gradient in
MLCAPE with 500 to 1500 J/kg noted to the southwest of the axis on
RAP analysis and SPC mesoanalysis data, while a minimum in
instability resided over central AR in the wake of the earlier
MCS. PWs ranged from 1.7 to 2.1 inches across the OK/AR/TX/LA
region via GPS data from 06Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches
within areas of training and localized rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches (locally higher) will be possible. A few areas of flash
flooding will be possible, especially if overlap occurs with
regions that received heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6WUEFpr9s3X2KJ3tX4EVDIKj8nvCvkJ_4mfkBV6c3tZvKc3SNteD6MTy2p1HRxB5pJSO= CfUuYfAlFkHfGXc_Yk-3FtU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35169439 34519318 33409222 32719143 32079119=20
31799180 32259335 33379480 34319540 35049528=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240917
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-241415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0514
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
516 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...western KS into northern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240915Z - 241415Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to advance ESE across western
KS and the OK Panhandle into southern KS/northern OK through 14Z.
Embedded training of heavy rain may result in a few areas of flash
flooding, especially if overlap can occur with wet antecedent
soils from previous rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that were located in eastern CO earlier
in the night have advanced into western KS and the OK/TX
Panhandles in the form of one main cluster over southwestern KS as
of 0845Z along with a broken NW to SE axis of thunderstorms
stretching from western KS into south-central KS and the central
KS/OK border. This activity was located well north of a SE to NW
oriented stationary front, analyzed over northern TX into central
CO, up against the Front Range. The storms were elevated, embedded
within MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and precipitable water values near
1.5 inches (per 08Z SPC mesoanalysis data).

The overrunning low level jet of 25-35 kt from the SW has likely
peaked in magnitude and is forecast to gradually weaken into the
morning hours. However, a likely MCV in southwestern KS will
continue to advance downstream this morning, providing a source of
lift. Thunderstorms are expected to continue a general ESE motion
over the next 3-6 hours, following deeper layer mean steering flow
and modified Corfidi vectors accounting for a higher inflow layer
above 850 mb. Elevated convergence axes, aligned from WNW to ESE,
have already resulted in the development of convection from
western to south-central KS beneath diffluent flow aloft in the
300-400 mb layer. Strengthening and expanding of thunderstorms
along this elevated convergence axis should continue over the next
few hours.

Training of heavy rain is expected to result in hourly rainfall of
1 to 2+ inches with storm total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches through
14Z. Greater concern of flash flooding will occur should areas of
heavy rain overlap with portions of KS/OK which have received 300
to 600 percent of average rainfall over the past week, due to
greater potential for rainfall to runoff.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!89lzbhW7D7pZmNNyMkhN9kNToDjldjbNej4IiH_1Ml6Y_RVKX1Qs7_hZcnH-GsIx-oNQ= EMvPC3ZORFaclPJ6plg8Nms$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...PUB...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39100074 38769968 38319877 37659750 37219672=20
36539592 35819595 35449670 35639797 36159970=20
36360047 36580139 37140193 38020206 39030183=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241255
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241753-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0515
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Southwest AR and Northwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241253Z - 241753Z

SUMMARY...A narrow, northwest to southeast training band of
convection will maintain a flash flood threat over the next
several hours. Localized rainfall rates of 2?3"/hr remain possible
within this axis before low-level forcing gradually weakens later
this morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a relatively narrow but
well defined northwest to southeast oriented training band of
convection stretching across southwest Arkansas and northwest
Louisiana. This activity is anchored on the trailing southwestern
flank of a MCV located over Mississippi, positioned within a
localized axis of low-level convergence.

The thermodynamic environment is favorable for heavy rainfall
rates. Mesoanalysis reveals an exceptionally moist airmass with
precipitable water values exceeding 2.0 inches, ensuring highly
efficient rainfall production. Instability is moderate, with
MUCAPE analyzed in the 1000?2000 J/kg range, which is sufficient
to sustain intense updrafts.

The mean cloud-layer flow is out of the northwest and is generally
aligned parallel to the orientation of the convective axis. This
steering flow profile is actively supporting the observed cell
training. However, the overall scale of the system remains small
at this time, with minimal upscale growth noted on radar and
satellite.

There is some uncertainty regarding the convective evolution
through the remainder of the morning. High resolution guidance
indicates that the primary low-level convergence will gradually
weaken over the next few hours as the parent MCV and its stronger
large-scale forcing shift further east into Mississippi. Little
convective development is currently being observed in Mississippi,
leaving the trailing axis as the primary focus.

While a gradual downward trend in intensity and coverage is
anticipated later this morning, at least some persistence of the
ongoing training activity is likely over the next several hours.
While some minor westward propagation along the convective cold
pool remains possible, a significant westward expansion is not
expected. Therefore, the highest flash flood threat through
mid-morning should remain concentrated near and just south and
southwest of the current convective axis. Localized rainfall rates
of 2?3"/hr within the strongest segments of the line will be
capable of producing additional flash flood impacts.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-WTqX4GNSUw9tFOtc0k01JpO9NaX54O4vfZRzkw8M4noTFNhCqzyQMHtdxOOk0rTLP5M= -MFIygqLVfDrub5nIdB6VxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34199413 34129346 33479299 32989263 32689238=20
32189203 31589232 31589293 32159354 32679394=20
33169420 34009450=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241312
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241753-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0515
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Southwest AR and Northwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241253Z - 241753Z

SUMMARY...A narrow, northwest to southeast training band of
convection will maintain a flash flood threat over the next
several hours. Localized rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr remain possible
within this axis before low-level forcing gradually weakens later
this morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a relatively narrow but
well defined northwest to southeast oriented training band of
convection stretching across southwest Arkansas and northwest
Louisiana. This activity is anchored on the trailing southwestern
flank of a MCV located over Mississippi, positioned within a
localized axis of low-level convergence.

The thermodynamic environment is favorable for heavy rainfall
rates. Mesoanalysis reveals an exceptionally moist airmass with
precipitable water values exceeding 2.0 inches, ensuring highly
efficient rainfall production. Instability is moderate, with
MUCAPE analyzed in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, which is sufficient
to sustain intense updrafts.

The mean cloud-layer flow is out of the northwest and is generally
aligned parallel to the orientation of the convective axis. This
steering flow profile is actively supporting the observed cell
training. However, the overall scale of the system remains small
at this time, with minimal upscale growth noted on radar and
satellite.

There is some uncertainty regarding the convective evolution
through the remainder of the morning. High resolution guidance
indicates that the primary low-level convergence will gradually
weaken over the next few hours as the parent MCV and its stronger
large-scale forcing shift further east into Mississippi. Little
convective development is currently being observed in Mississippi,
leaving the trailing axis as the primary focus.

While a gradual downward trend in intensity and coverage is
anticipated later this morning, at least some persistence of the
ongoing training activity is likely over the next several hours.
While some minor westward propagation along the convective cold
pool remains possible, a significant westward expansion is not
expected. Therefore, the highest flash flood threat through
mid-morning should remain concentrated near and just south and
southwest of the current convective axis. Localized rainfall rates
of 2-3"/hr within the strongest segments of the line will be
capable of producing additional flash flood impacts.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9n6gwvRTlyfNAhVLqoZfEGejXsZMO1eZUtg2ynSUFHSPXmbHYXACa_BRqYZKBBdBAESW= B-9ASJBiybUGa_LksWfv1a8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34199413 34129346 33479299 32989263 32689238=20
32189203 31589232 31589293 32159354 32679394=20
33169420 34009450=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241400
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241859-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0516
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
959 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Northeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241359Z - 241859Z

SUMMARY...Training convection over northeast Oklahoma will pose an
isolated to scattered flash flood risk this morning. While the
overall system is progressive, downstream development and cell
mergers will support 2-3"/hr rainfall rates and localized totals
exceeding 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and IR satellite imagery this morning
indicate an area of convection traversing northeast Oklahoma.
Ascent is being driven by ample large-scale forcing ahead of an
approaching mid-level shortwave. The thermodynamic environment
ahead of this shortwave is characterized by abundant moisture and
increasing instability. Recent mesoanalysis shows precipitable
water values hovering around 1.9 inches. Furthermore, MUCAPE is
currently analyzed around 2000 J/kg, having increased by roughly
500 J/kg over the past 3 hours.

The primary forecast question regarding convective maintenance
revolves around the low-level environment, as surface-based
low-level flow and convergence are currently not overly
impressive. However, forecast model soundings suggest that the
ongoing convection is largely elevated, rooted near the 850 mb
layer. At this level, there appears to be just enough convergence
to successfully kick off and maintain the activity. Recent
observational trends from both radar and IR imagery support the
convection persisting and actively maintaining its intensity as it
tracks across northeast Oklahoma.

While the broader synoptic system is generally progressive, the
convective evolution is increasingly exhibiting downstream
development. This process is supporting cell mergers and periods
of training convection. As a result, localized heavy rainfall
rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are likely within the strongest
convective cores, with storm total rainfall expected to locally
exceed 3 inches. This will support an isolated to scattered flash
flood risk across the region through the morning hours.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9SV_U7ev2RbukcY0cfn9YAbJgil_2-KZLU0FzNvdZiv3wr-wic8HYPBGwCBXWtaXOgJs= ze0N_SqeulWFrdVTqFUhdlY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37009730 36419499 35799404 35039395 34929532=20
35489684 36159770 36669776=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241838
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-242237-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0517
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241837Z - 242237Z

SUMMARY...Decaying convection approaching from the west is
interacting with ongoing outflow-driven storms, leading to a brief
uptick in convective intensity and slow cell motions. A localized
flash flood threat will persist for a few more hours before the
forcing departs.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and IR imagery over the past hour has
shown a noticeable uptick in convective intensity across portions
of western Arkansas. This short term enhancement is being driven
by dying convection moving in from the west, which is actively
pushing a surge of slightly enhanced westerly flow into an area of
ongoing, outflow-driven convection over western Arkansas.

This is fostering an area of enhanced mesoscale convergence. The
environment remains supportive for robust updrafts and efficient
rainfall production, with mesoanalysis indicating MUCAPE of 1000
to 2000 J/kg and precipitable water values hovering around 1.9
inches. As the enhanced convergence acts on this thermodynamic
profile, it is allowing for renewed convective intensity capable
of producing high, short-term rainfall rates.

Because the localized setup is resulting in relatively slow cell
motions, these high rainfall rates will linger over localized
areas. Consequently, this brief enhancement in convective
intensity and coverage could result in additional areas of
localized flash flooding, particularly if these slow-moving cores
track over sensitive basins or previously saturated soils.

Overall, this threat is expected to be relatively short lived.
Once the upstream wave and its associated enhanced westerly flow
push eastward and clear the area, the localized low-level
convergence should wane, and convection should weaken or at least
become less focused. However, for the next couple hours, the
combination of slow cell motions and intense rainfall rates will
keep a localized flash flood threat active across western Arkansas.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9YgYmAr4iD0k8gsUq6yBDE9PboJLfsHS1hsedwZZtEhqaOLT8gU39IHxFzHE5EEXGHwY= yaATwuVO-IosDiFMmthrK0Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36859366 36269308 35319304 35029310 34249313=20
33589326 33349350 33519385 33749407 34769426=20
36019422 36719407=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250043
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250641-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0518
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...southwestern Nebraska, northwestern Kansas, and
northeastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250041Z - 250641Z

Summary...Increasing coverage of thunderstorms will occur in
tandem with increasing flash flood potential through 06Z/1a
central.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts scattered
thunderstorm development across northeastern Colorado (near Akron)
and adjacent areas of southwestern Nebraska (near North Platte and
Ogallala). The storms were exhibiting mainly cellular modes so
far in their development, which isn't surprising given
supercellular wind profiles, steep lapse rates, minimal inhibition
(keeping initial development isolated in nature) and 1-1.4 inch PW
values. Locally heavy rainfall was also noted near the
stronger/more dominant activity, with spots of 1 inch/hr rain
rates estimated per MRMS. Flash flood potential exists on an
isolated basis in the short term.

Strong low-level confluence into this region of convection will
combine with minimal inhibition to aid in expanding convective
coverage through the evening hours. While confidence is high that
coverage will increase, convective mode is a bit uncertain. The
most likely scenario is for storms to form a mix of clusters and
linear segments, with occasional mergers promoting locally
prolonged rainfall rates and attendant flash flood risk. FFG
thresholds are in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range (lowest in southwestern
NE and western Kansas), and as storms evolve (both mode-wise and
with southeastward movement toward a slightly more moist airmass),
the likelihood of local FFG exceedance will increase with time.=20
Flash flooding is possible as storms migrate east/southeastward
through the discussion area through 06Z/1a central time. Most
convection should reach the NE/KS border region through 04Z/11p
central and perhaps reach I-70 in northern Kansas through 07Z or
so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6M5qZNHvvNLF5NrG8u6WnCwdh_6Rm0Ys3THMkOk6x1AuvF0fTIhHidMP4rFL3cdfdDXX= Tubflp77cari_y5mWFOjweM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41619976 41009841 39659768 38939788 38760003=20
38680185 39520305 40110341 41090317 41540172=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250604
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-251200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0519
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...High Plains of Colorado through central Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 250602Z - 251200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand overnight with
hourly rainfall of 1-2+". Training of this convection could
produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Instances of
flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows rapidly
expanding thunderstorms from the Front Range of Colorado eastward
through north-central Kansas. This convection is blossoming ahead
of a wave of low pressure and along/north of a surface front
analyzed by WPC. Increasing S/SE low-level flow analyzed both by
regional VWPs and the SPC RAP is lifting northwest into front,
providing both isentropic and upslope mesoscale ascent, aiding the
already robust large-scale lift produced through the RRQ of an
upper jet streak and an impressive shortwave pushing east. This
deep layer lift is acting upon favorable thermodynamics to support
heavy rainfall, resulting in recent hourly rainfall measured via
MRMS to be more than 2 inches in some areas of the Colorado High
Plains.

During the next several hours, convective coverage is likely to
continue to expand as the LLJ surges above 30 kts to draw PWs of
1.2 to 1.4 inches (above the daily 90th percentile) northwest
coincident with MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. As the surface boundary
drops southward, it will additionally interact with these intense thermodynamics, maintaining an extremely favorable convergence
axis for thunderstorm redevelopment while an MCV and the surface
low force some locally enhanced acceleration of the LLJ to drive
more impressive kinematics. The entire region appears primed for
heavy rainfall tonight, and this is reflected by high-res
agreement in clusters of storms, or a more cohesive MCS (on 45 kts
of bulk shear) pushing E/SE, while additional development occurs
within upslope flow into the terrain. This suggests an elevated
training risk, and with hourly rainfall likely (40-70% chance)
exceeding 1"/hr as progged by both the HREF and REFS, This could
produce 2-4" of rain (20-40% chance) with isolated totals around
5".

Across portions of the High Plains of CO and into western KS,
0-10cm soil moisture is above the 95th percentile according to
NASA SPoRT. In these areas, 3-hr FFG is less than 1.5", for which
the HREF indicates has a greater than 50% chance of exceedance.
Any slow moving storms or training of higher rainfall will create
the greatest flash flood risk, but the steady increase in
convective coverage so far tonight suggests that flash flooding is
becoming likely for parts of the region.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7ud-R4qLMcIQozUi77J1NWb3DYNc_Kp_YpUKfvwzCF_e85VohlWrjvyu2axowQOveBjh= 525UwdOVVGm2dtK9woLOPKs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...PUB...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40640448 40580221 40470065 40259936 40049859=20
39479755 38389767 37759803 37309924 37210051=20
37400140 37810189 38960311 39400397 39470475=20
39530533 39910564 40280549=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250848
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0520
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...far southern KS, northern OK, northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250846Z - 251400Z

Summary...Training showers and thunderstorms will expand through
early morning with hourly rainfall of 1-2" possible. This heavy
rain falling atop saturated soils could result in flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a narrow
corridor of showers and thunderstorms developing from near Alva,
OK (KAVK) east-southeast to Fayetteville, AR (KFYV). This fresh
convection is blossoming along the strong convergence axis on the
nose of the intensifying LLJ, which is now analyzed via regional
VWPs and the SPC RAP to be 20-25 kts from the south. These winds
have shown some subtle backing the past few hours in response to a
potent shortwave and surface low ejecting from CO, helping to draw
impressive PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches northward. This LLJ is
efficiently converging along its nose and within the moistening
column, producing locally enhanced ascent into an unstable
environment (MUCAPE above 3000 J/kg). While heavy rainfall within
convection has just started, the LightningCast probabilities have
steadily expanded northwest and increased, suggesting additional
convective development is underway.

The high-res guidance is struggling with the current evolution,
and really only the most recent (07Z) HRRR has caught on to the
ongoing activity. This is resulting in lower than typical
confidence of the convective evolution the next few hours.
However, with the impressive PW/MUCAPE overlap in place, and the
LLJ expected to remain locally backed and accelerated, the
ingredients suggest storms will continually regenerate along this
boundary until the shortwave (and any accompanying convection)
sweeps through from the west late morning. Rainfall measured by
MRMS has exceeded 1.5" the past hour, suggesting rainfall rates of
at least 1-2"/hr are likely through morning. This will become an
increasing flash flood risk as mean 0-6km winds are just around 5
kts and aligned parallel to this boundary, so as storms redevelop
to the west within slightly higher instability and on the locally
backed inflow, they will train to the E/SE to prolong the duration
of these rain rates. This could result in 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts.

Soils across this region are saturated as reflected by NASA SPoRT
0-40cm soil moisture above the 98th percentile, and locally
compromised 3-hr FFG To as low as 0.5" to 1". Despite the HREF
exceedance probabilities being very low (due to poor high-res
guidance of this event), two FFWs are already in effect, and it is
possible that additional flash flood instances will occur through
morning due to training along this boundary.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!--Fvt8od6oHSkhNvDYKb5CTiW-aFsE4uPaqe7ahU_GeH-GtLwKyc1MVsm9BUxEROzI6p= tuo3zH6n4f5dyzeipgwRecA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37509910 37329781 36939602 36339427 35929380=20
35489407 35279468 35289537 35299549 35329617=20
35599704 35919798 36199892 36499961 36750000=20
37050010 37299994=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250949
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-251500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0521
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
548 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Western Arkansas through the ArkLaMiss

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250947Z - 251500Z

Summary...Nearly stationary showers and thunderstorms will
continue through late morning. Rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr will
produce 2-4" of rainfall with locally higher amounts. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows rapid
development of a line of convection oriented NW to SE from
north-central AR through the ArkLaMiss region. These storms are
blossoming along the nose of a SW oriented 20-25 kt LLJ, with
convergence driving ascent into a moistening column. PWs as
measured by GPS are generally 1.5 to 1.7 inches, above the 75th
percentile for the date, overlapping MUCAPE of around 2000 J/kg.
The sharp ascent into these thermodynamics has resulted in recent
hourly rainfall measured by MRMS of more than 2 inches in southern
AR.

The high-res guidance is struggling with the ongoing activity, and
in fact the recent HRRR and RRFS are completely missing the
current convection. This makes the forecast evolution of lower
confidence, but both the ARW and ARW2 capture better the
thunderstorms in AR, so are used more heavily for the next several
hours. As the LLJ gradually veers in the next few hours, it will
continue to transport the impressive PW/CAPE northeast to support
continued heavy rain. This will support rainfall rates likely
reaching 1-3"/hr at times, and as the LLJ becomes more WSW than
SSW, it should force additional development upstream in the higher
instability and then drift southeast on mean 0-6km winds aligned
parallel to the boundary. This will create a situation where net
storm motion could be close to 0 at times, with
backbuilding/training of these cells leading to 2-4" of rainfall
with isolated higher totals.

7-day rainfall across the area, especially from far southern AR
into LA/MS, has been more than 400% of normal leading to modest
FFG and 0-40cm soil moisture above the 90th percentile. Any heavy
rain across these more vulnerable soils could pose a more elevated
flash flood risk, but anywhere slow moving or training storms
occur impacts from flash flooding could result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4hjdIITKX1orOmUwb0c-OKN_shfm2BqDDAQblt6_9lIZ288aNOzeHNs34HxZqPmMGrME= rbmF5Ka6t9LQbptDbXnHM5I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35599414 35489353 34849260 34469221 33499089=20
32679029 31379004 31189053 31399126 31899203=20
32639297 33319372 33839417 34359437 34889458=20
35319454=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251211
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-251800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0522
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Western and Southern Kansas into Northern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251209Z - 251800Z

SUMMARY...Multiple areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
support intense rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour over
the next several hours. Localized totals of 3 to 4 inches will
likely result in flash flooding through early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends indicate an axis of
heavy showers and thunderstorms ejecting across western Kansas,
driven by a pronounced shortwave trough and associated surface low
pressure. Deep-layer ascent is being maximized by a combination of
DPVA and warm air advection with aid from a modest 20 to 30 kt
low-level jet. This is also yielding moisture and instability
transport up across the central Plains with MLCAPE values near
1500 J/kg and precipitable water values around 1.5 inches.
Continued cooling of convective cloud tops suggests vigorous,
sustained updrafts capable of highly efficient warm-rain
processes, and thus enhanced rainfall rates.

As the primary convective mass over western Kansas tracks
east-southeastward along the prevailing instability gradient, it
is expected to interact with a separate axis of backbuilding and
training convection already established over northern Oklahoma.
The intersection of these features, combined with persistent warm
air advection ahead of the shortwave, will support high rainfall
rates up to or locally exceeding 2 inches per hour.

Given the moist antecedent conditions across the region, these
intense rates are expected to overwhelm local infiltration
capacities. The latest HREF/REFS ensemble consensus supports
localized rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible where the most persistent cell-training occurs.
Consequently, areas of rapid runoff and flash flooding are
considered likely across the highlighted corridor through early
this afternoon, particularly where the Kansas and Oklahoma
convective axes consolidate.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5tqTInvmJ2OI5_FGSDNSyRuaXAvhFLjgzyiumtwWZaAxKSQEyr0v1m2LILdJn-D6B3bU= quKT77BCQncmevsTgtnPvLw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...OUN...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39500115 39379959 39069827 38499676 37519543=20
36809531 36269582 36139692 36509840 36939948=20
37740087 38510156 39120164=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251801
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0523
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas...West-Central into
Southwest Missouri...North-Central to Northeast Oklahoma...Far
Northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251800Z - 260000Z

SUMMARY...An organized MCS and a secondary developing axis of
frontal convection will move eastward into a highly sensitive
downstream environment. Intense rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5
inches per hour will act on locally saturated soils and sensitive
terrain, making at least scattered areas of flash flooding likely
through late this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Operational radar and satellite imagery show a robust
mesoscale convective system (MCS) advancing steadily eastward
across central Kansas along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary,
with extension down into southern Kansas and north-central
Oklahoma. This activity is being sustained by strong large-scale
ascent from an ejecting central High Plains shortwave. Ahead of
this complex, a convergent 30+ kt southwesterly low-level jet
continues to drive warm air advection and favorable moisture
transport into the downstream region.

Thermodynamic profiles have become increasingly unstable due to
solar insolation, with MLCAPE values climbing into the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range across eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and
northeast Oklahoma. Precipitable water values are generally rather
high, ranging from 1.5 inches along the frontal boundary in
west-central Missouri to nearly 2.0 inches over southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma. The 12Z regional soundings confirm rather
deep warm-cloud depths and high freezing levels, favoring highly
efficient warm-rain processes capable of sustaining 1.5 to 2.5
inch per hour rainfall rates within the stronger convective cores.

Going through 00Z (7PM CDT), two distinct axes of heavy rainfall
are expected:

1. The ongoing primary MCS tracking across central/southeast
Kansas and northeast Oklahoma where localized cell-training and
occasional backbuilding will favor storm totals as high as 3 to 5
inches based on the latest HREF/REFS model consensus. Some of this
activity may impact far northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri.

2. A somewhat more uncertain, but potential developing axis of
heavy showers and storms farther north across
east-central/northeast Kansas into west-central Missouri, focused
by frontal convergence and arrival of upstream forcing, capable of
producing localized 2 to 4 inch totals which is supported by the
HRRR/RRFS/REFS model camp.

Antecedent conditions are notably vulnerable across the region.
Recent NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm relative soil moisture data indicates
very moist soils, and USGS stream gauges show already elevated
baseflows, particularly across the rugged terrain of the Ozark
Plateau. Given the high runoff efficiency of both the
hilly/complex topography and localized urban centers in the path
of these storms, the projected rainfall rates will likely lead to
rapid surface runoff concerns. Some larger cities that may see
these impacts will include Kansas City, Chanute and eventually
Springfield. Consequently, at least scattered areas of flash
flooding are considered likely going into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!78ori7T5K02RM00JVN1sbZxphv5EOH2_Nao_r3g7ubeoO8z909g96bnuT18SowsVazbn= zPEhXnvAhRWT99PG-3RInyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39529519 39519369 39169223 38409158 37179162=20
36329244 36059404 36149623 36579772 37229843=20
37869868 38549853 39009792 39329685=20

=3D =3D =3D
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