ACUS11 KWNS 172145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172145=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-172345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Northeast IA...southwest WI...extreme southeast MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341...

Valid 172145Z - 172345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail, strong/damaging gusts, and
possibly a tornado may spread southeast through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster is moving across parts of
extreme southeast MN and northeast IA late this afternoon, in the
vicinity of a surface low and a seasonably strong mid/upper-level
shortwave trough. Heating and destabilization have been relatively
muted across this region, though MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg
and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for
organized storms through late afternoon. Isolated hail and
strong/damaging gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Also, with
low-level vorticity relatively maximized in the vicinity of the
surface low, a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially if any
sustained supercell structures can become established.=20

This convection is approaching the southeast part of WW 341.
Depending on short-term trends, local expansion of the watch may be
considered, but the need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain,
unless there is a notable uptick in storm intensity and
organization.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-7CHwXv57C71RSdsRbhYTngyWxFPfPBGW5O-N41PA_ik8iwkS8vwDvGzas7F2XFrOrywjHRs0= YeaDeS4vsEiUslVivU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 44069244 43869098 43709069 43139049 42779051 42489051
42319079 42319131 42579200 42899237 43369268 43539268
44069244=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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