ACUS11 KWNS 180043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180043=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-180315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern LA/MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 180043Z - 180315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the tornado threat is expected into
late evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...To the east of strongly sheared Tropical Storm Arthur,
low-level flow is gradually increasing across parts of southeast LA
and southern MS (as depicted in regional VWPs), and will continue to
increase into late evening. Some backing of low-level flow is also
expected as Arthur approaches the region, resulting in some
enlargement of low-level hodographs. Given the presence of rich
tropical moisture (with mid/upper 70s F dewpoints), this increase in
low-level shear/SRH could aid in the development of transient, small
supercells later this evening into the overnight, resulting in a
threat for brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch issuance is increasingly
possible later this evening in order to address this threat.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!49ZEfF1RtSHtfwqy5IMsEJDQ_ODaaVSUn_i7T1Eu0peBqHvyFeGTb0XqOWppIRSOBN-5YZU6f= JoBnv74Alwq28vALJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29779315 31209181 31338996 31238912 31008865 30658870
29558936 29079021 29039071 29069137 29219202 29779315=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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