ACUS11 KWNS 181044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181043=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-181245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...West Virginia...Northwestern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 181043Z - 181245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A potential for severe wind gusts is expected to develop
over much of West Virginia into northwestern Virginia this morning.
Additional weather watch issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A severe MCS is currently ongoing near an axis of
moderate instability located from central Kentucky
east-northeastward into western West Virginia. The eastern edge of
this instability is forecast to shift eastward across the remainder
of West Virginia and into northwestern Virginia over the next few
hours. This should be enough to maintain a severe threat with the
eastern edge of an MCS as it moves into the central Appalachians.
Just to the south of the MCS, the Jackson, Kentucky WSR-88D VWP has
0-6 km shear near 70 knots. This will likely support an isolated
severe threat, mainly with short bowing line segments. The primary
threat will be damaging wind gusts, but an isolated tornado threat
will also be possible.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8iYKl0H30_evry_6bNAl4pOI3XvLNSYWLiHzQRtmKTxkUU6cpoDIML_E8AdzlmbU8fO3osgME= haf6wepgJz9UUpKKbw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

LAT...LON 38218196 38608156 38928090 38968001 38887911 38697853
38427829 37887834 37507864 37277907 37247982 37328050
37428114 37558169 37678194 37908210 38218196=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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