ACUS11 KWNS 181331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181331=20
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-181530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181331Z - 181530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to shift eastward with potential for
damaging wind and perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Low topped convection will continue eastward this
morning across portions of the Northeast. Strong southerly flow is
ushering in higher dew points ahead of this line. Though cloud cover
is prominent, further destabilization is expected to occur through
filtered heating into the early afternoon with MLCAPE around 1000
J/kg progged by the afternoon. Given the strong mid-level flow and
low-level jet, damaging wind potential will likely increase into the
afternoon. Given strong low-level shear profiles, a couple of
tornadoes are also possible. A watch will be needed soon to cover
this potential.

..Thornton/Hart.. 06/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-tnbHOBWViGYgQgB1sjn7sjmL86dfnKAHsXhZQP8c1ZssibzzcKNIPFh-0rVms6F4pI0AdZN3= COrxF490gKyEReOqv4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
PBZ...

LAT...LON 43017777 41647945 41407616 41587391 42387246 44077204
44817237 44887508 43017777=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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