ACUS11 KWNS 181747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181746=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-181945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central Gulf Coast and Southeast

Concerning...Tornado Watch 351...

Valid 181746Z - 181945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 351 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts is
expected to shift eastward and farther inland with time this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Earlier embedded supercells across southeastern
Louisiana/southern Mississippi have congealed into a convective line
that has begun to surge more eastward and is now entering
southwestern Alabama. Latest radar data from KMOB has sampled up to
60-70+ kt inbound velocities at 1-1.5 kft AGL over the past 30
minutes. This activity is occurring immediately downstream of subtle
surface meso-low analyzed northeast of New Orleans and along the
southern flank of the convectively-reinforced, remnant mid-level
vortex of Tropical Storm Arthur. Expectation is for this convective
line to progress eastward and eventually inland along a surface thermal/buoyancy gradient and in conjunction with an eastward shift
of the 850 mb jet axis. Rich tropical moisture amid a warm,
low-level air mass and modestly enhanced effective shear along the
southern periphery of the mid-level vortex will continue to favor
maintenance of this convective line along with the potential for
damaging wind gusts. Curved low-level hodographs and 0-500 m SRH in
excess of 100 m2/s2 will also promote a continued threat for
tornadoes, both with this activity and any additional development
preceding this convective line. Downstream watch extensions and
eventually a new Tornado Watch will likely be needed to cover these
threats.

..Chalmers/Hart.. 06/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!62iPgOhKXf8aCOU4zQjlQZmeMzA4X7r62rW6gkdxn9DixA_o-fruJE8sF14d5JUZhE2Bqn8KD= 8lvfYtva237gkJ5JVc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30168957 30428955 30748924 31398845 32198748 32798663
33298578 33448550 33418505 33218476 32738457 32108460
31728475 31008543 30568605 30268646 29968731 29898825
29938889 29998927 30168957=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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