ACUS11 KWNS 190116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190116=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-190315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Southern/eastern GA and adjacent parts of the FL
Panhandle and western SC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 354...

Valid 190116Z - 190315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 354 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging winds and brief tornadoes may
continue into the late evening.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS with embedded circulations is moving eastward
across central GA as of 0115 UTC. The KJGX VWP continues to depict
seasonably strong low/midlevel flow, with favorable low-level
veering and 0-1 km SRH near/above 150 m2/s2. Downstream wind
profiles are expected to remain favorable through the evening,
though earlier convection has resulted in some cooling and
stabilization from east-central GA into parts of SC. Some low-level
moisture recovery is possible in advance of this QLCS, which may
help to sustain this system and result in a continued threat of wind
damage and brief tornadoes into the late evening, though the weaker
buoyancy with eastward extent results in uncertainty regarding
magnitude of the nocturnal threat in this area. The need for a
downstream watch is uncertain, and will depend in short-term
observations regarding storm organization and any buoyancy recovery.

Farther southwest, occasional semi-discrete cells have been noted
between Dothan and Tallahassee. Any persistent small supercells
could continue to pose a brief tornado threat, given the presence of
very rich low-level moisture and favorable low-level shear/SRH.=20=20

To the west of Dothan, persistent convection has recently surged
eastward, with rather strong winds noted at 1 km AGL from KEOX. This
convection is largely north of the outflow from earlier convection,
resulting in certainty regarding severe-wind potential at the
surface, but at least localized wind damage will be possible as this
small cluster moves across southeast AL.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5orF0S_5fRcSSVuW6igBR30PaHES5hPP0E6JdHI486hGw-eK25j1KkRhM8WWASo6GU0WSXQex= OYANyt7EBh1YK4x08o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 33588363 33898312 34058265 34158208 33738173 33428159
32948181 31968272 30978405 30848427 30608485 30588521
30778605 31018627 31268629 31498613 31648573 31908423
32858360 33148362 33588363=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)