ACUS11 KWNS 191127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191127=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-191330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191127Z - 191330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will be possible this morning across
parts of southeast Georgia. The threat is expected to remain
marginal, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment is currently located about 75
statute miles to the west-northwest of the southeast Georgia coast.
This line is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a
shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of the line,
surface dewpoints are in the mid 70s F, and the RAP shows an axis of
moderate instability with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. In addition, the
latest WSR-88D VWP at Charleston, South Carolina has moderate
deep-layer shear with 55 knots of west-southwesterly flow around 1
km above ground level. The strong wind field will support an
isolated potential for severe wind gusts as the line moves
east-southeastward toward the coast over the next couple of hours.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 06/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_vEC_6c2ULhUo3za6AzJykd37jOGg-yLICqi4OGN9WO1mLTwVK7DbHMRjdZyoKP-yFjL4Rf7y= 5NbA3DgqrkL4N542YI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 32258228 32168292 31768329 31198318 30908271 30658148
31068121 31798099 32258228=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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