ACUS11 KWNS 191502
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191502=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191502Z - 191700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe wind gusts is expected to
increase by late morning into early afternoon. While a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is not currently anticipated, convective trends
will be monitored for more organized cold pool development.

DISCUSSION...Amidst a broader convective precipitation shield, a
couple of more intense thunderstorm clusters are being observed as
of 14:55 UTC. One is located west of Texarkana, with the other west
of Lampasas, TX. The downstream air mass from the ArkLaTex into
south TX is very moist with dewpoints in the mid 70s to around 80
with precipitable water values of around two inches. The robust
moisture coincides with a narrow axis of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates to yield MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg as of 14 UTC. Filtered
sunshine ahead of the ongoing storms is expected to support further
air mass destabilization through the remainder of the morning into
this afternoon.

Latest short-term model guidance suggests that the leading edge of
consolidated outflow will continue to support episodic storm
intensification from the ArkLaTex into south TX, with the greatest
signal for storm persistence being with the complex over the
ArkLaTex. Given the presence of the very moist/unstable inflow air
mass, the potential will exist for locally intense wet microbursts
capable of a few severe wind gusts. Relatively weak deep-layer shear
observed by regional VWPs is expected to limit the potential for
broader-scale cold-pool organization and a resultant greater
damaging wind threat.

..Mead.. 06/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4RgK-Mif-g3AtAjdGcNZR1nqE89sJmuAMBeAhGu7VcxJG23OqrCsl6TYIBqRx00vCQ6PpYE9t= wJ2FhOE4VezVPL0tEI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30689938 32599712 33569513 33659450 33339297 32669257
31789313 31259425 30209636 29469776 29519890 30689938=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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