ACUS11 KWNS 191827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191827=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-192100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191827Z - 192100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of large
hail and damaging wind gusts is expected to increase this afternoon.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the mid 50s to
around 60, the combination of daytime heating and cooling mid-level temperatures are contributing to air mass destabilization with
MLCAPE expected to increase to 1000-1200 J/kg this afternoon. That destabilization process will support the southeastward advance of
ongoing thunderstorms over the Red River Valley into the discussion
area, with additional in-situ development also possible.

Forecast soundings and the current KMPX VWP indicate strong
mid/upper-level wind fields, with long straight-line hodographs
forecast by mid to late afternoon. As such, the potential will exist
for splitting supercells capable of large hail, potentially up to
golf-ball size. There is some model signal that storms may merge
into bowing structures by late afternoon or early evening, signaling
an increase in damaging wind potential. The tendency for the
low-level wind field to veer to a westerly direction with time is
expected to limit low-level shear magnitudes and resultant tornado
potential.

Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Mead/Hart.. 06/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_jJcd8B8Cr5daNhfoIRgKTqD2kW9O06O2sxf6SHM0l0DwS7v2MmWlB0eQ_TF3Yda2VxguLDdB= GiU3J2qdbAZEfozYOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46559420 46139245 45669152 45279111 44629120 44189168
44119255 44539380 45159455 45869520 46099522 46099522
46409491 46559420=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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