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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1201

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 19 19:08:26 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 191908
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191907=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-192100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1201
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

    Areas affected...Southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191907Z - 192100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will be possible for the next
    couple of hours as a band of thunderstorms approaches the Gulf
    Coast.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a band of poorly organized
    convection has been drifting southward across southern AL and into
    the FL Panhandle. Surface observations have largely been reporting
    wind gusts between 20-30 mph with the passage of the line over the
    past 30 minutes. However, GOES IR imagery has shown a trend towards
    colder cloud-top temperatures associated with stronger updraft
    pulses as the line propagates south into a warming air mass where
    temperatures are warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. Deep-layer
    wind shear remains very poor across the region and will continue to
    modulate the overall severe threat; however, this trends towards
    stronger updrafts and warming low-level conditions suggests the
    potential for very isolated bursts of damaging winds (most likely
    35-55 mph) is likely increasing. Areas downstream of the convective
    bands may see sporadic damaging gusts over the next couple of hours
    as the storms continue to push southward towards the coast.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 06/19/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8abIkG0KjvIhaaTsV1qHuiazvZgREyxFtp7-GaTnlaazHxCJSX4bbfXmsvMy7Hgihv7tWWkUE= _H5CKy4shA6Qo_2nqw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30238756 30438792 30858815 31168815 31488786 31558754
    31538720 31098676 30848638 30678564 30598467 30608404
    30398387 30118401 29708467 29668515 29848548 30138583
    30318646 30238756=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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