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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1202

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 19 19:32:29 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 191932
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191931=20
    FLZ000-192130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1202
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

    Areas affected...Central Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191931Z - 192130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A strong to severe downburst or two may occur across the
    central Florida Peninsula this afternoon. This threat will likely
    remain too isolated and transient to warrant watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The early stages of convective development are well
    underway across the central FL Peninsula amid a combination of
    strong diurnal heating and weak low-level ascent along a confluence
    axis draped across the state. Recent surface observations show
    temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints
    remaining in the mid 70s. This is supporting a regional buoyancy
    maximum with MLCAPE values estimated to be around 3000 J/kg.
    Additionally, low-level lapse rates are steepest (7-8 C/km) across
    this region where daytime heating has been maximized. Meager
    deep-layer wind shear should promote mainly short-lived cells and
    loosely organized clusters, which will modulate the overall severe
    threat. However, thermodynamic conditions are most favorable for
    intense updrafts - as well as robust downdrafts capable of strong to
    severe (45-65 mph) wind gusts - across central and eastern portions
    of the state through early evening.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 06/19/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vWW138xi_WuyqK8ZXSRKzo4pfYzqP1MdaAdwFa1ENt21lb2wzi85Jcm5rZ-7ljFjgM7KTY82= 1KeY8zsEAbUKF5T8jk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 26598168 27318172 28108168 28518167 28658148 28688113
    28588060 28368050 28038047 27578026 27158008 26868003
    26558014 26328038 26218070 26178103 26238144 26398163
    26598168=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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