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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1203

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 19 19:44:27 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 191944
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191943=20
    COZ000-NMZ000-192215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1203
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

    Areas affected...central Colorado into north-central and northeast
    New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191943Z - 192215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and locally
    severe wind gusts appear possible this afternoon into early evening.
    The limited areal coverage and magnitude of the severe-weather
    threat are expected to preclude a watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Recent trends in radar and satellite data indicate
    deepening showers and thunderstorms along the Sangre De Cristo
    Mountains and CO Front Range from near Las Vegas, NM to near
    Colorado Springs, CO. In the short term, thunderstorms are expected
    to remain in the vicinity of the high terrain owing to stronger
    capping across the adjacent High Plains. However, by mid to late
    afternoon, that capping is expected to weaken, allowing for a slow southeastward drift of the storms into lower elevations. The
    presence of steep, low/mid-level lapse rates and resultant MLCAPE of
    around 1000 J/kg is expected to coincide with 35-40 kt of effective
    bulk shear, supporting the potential for transient supercell
    structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and perhaps
    locally severe wind gusts.

    The limited areal coverage and magnitude of the severe-weather
    threat are expected to preclude a watch issuance.

    ..Mead/Hart.. 06/19/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Vnrstv6_U-sF3U471DGcHDl4gTjNX09-_101yFpvW7EQJXxy_KN2jh4NHtbBxEB6sZWDIywl= 8b314dbvuOCYLS_QIo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35530583 36020580 37160540 38760514 38980409 38430323
    35900379 35060427 34910511 35120571 35530583=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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