ACUS11 KWNS 192021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192021=20
NVZ000-CAZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Western Nevada and portions of far northeast
California

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192021Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for strong to severe downburst winds will
increase through early evening across far northeast California and
into western Nevada. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus has slowly been deepening along the Sierra
Nevada per GOES imagery as early-day clouds clear and diurnal
heating/upslope flow gradually increases. Based on regional radar
imagery, several of the deeper towers are beginning to produce
downdrafts, and occasional lightning flashes have been noted in GLM
data over the past 20-30 minutes. These trends confirm the presence
of very meager, but sufficient, buoyancy to support convection. GOES water-vapor imagery also depicts a low-level trough pivoting
northward into NV, which will likely aid in ascent away from the
terrain as well as provide some degree of mid-level
cooling/destabilization - both of which will be favorable for the
maintenance of convection through the late afternoon hours. As
convection spreads northeast over the lower terrain, downdrafts will
encounter a very deeply-mixed boundary layer characterized by nearly
dry adiabatic 0-3 km lapse rates. This will promote substantial
evaporative cooling and downdraft accelerations favorable for strong
to severe downburst winds at the surface. Recent CAM guidance
highlights this potential well and suggests that gusts may be as
high as 60-70 mph. Despite the potential for severe winds, limited
buoyancy should modulate the lifespan and intensity of convective
cells and negate the need for a watch.

..Moore/Hart.. 06/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_9mBTga5lg8mISlf2Izv3xbEzYrkT4ppDhfVfG2JuIisOWdyXMdiwXSxrYwmhMVp-fcnpm21i= xDDLfTwe7qHqluqAGw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...HNX...

LAT...LON 38021931 38882005 39382027 39702038 40092038 40512015
40791967 41011924 41011878 40911829 40711795 40011764
39431773 38171862 38011879 37941908 38021931=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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