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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1210

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 20 17:42:33 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 201742
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201742=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-201945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1210
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

    Areas affected...The Big Bend region of Florida into far southern
    Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201742Z - 201945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized corridor of higher wind potential may be
    emerging across the Big Bend region of Florida and into adjacent
    portions of far southern Georgia. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery shows steady deepening of
    incipient convection to the west of Tallahassee, FL that has
    developed within a weak low-level confluence zone. This activity may
    be influenced by a weak MCV noted in visible imagery and regional
    VWP observations across extreme southwest GA. Over the past hour,
    the KTLH VWP has shown a slight increase in 6 km winds that is
    supporting some hodograph elongation as the MCV passes to the north. Consequently, it appears plausible that a loosely organized
    convective band may emerge over the next 1-2 hours across the Big
    Bend region as convection continues to intensify. Further warming of
    the downstream environment will likely yield low-level lapse rates
    on the order of 7-8 C/km that should support some potential for
    damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. Despite this potential,
    the modest kinematic environment and a pocket of drier, less buoyant
    air far downstream across northern FL will likely limit the overall
    intensity, duration, and spatial extent of this threat and negate
    the need for watch issuance.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7oxFT6AHLfE5zBT8Dw88-d-Lr_P9NloSIi7TaQr5PRjhuBBiBYvnvvojL8eT87AYBTwglI7wJ= HGJqpX8BEzHqTTlaH4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29738470 30078479 30278494 30428500 30578495 30648476
    30768283 30698258 30558243 30318246 29988258 29718287
    29658298 29608338 29878365 29998385 30068406 30038422
    29898439 29738470=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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