ACUS11 KWNS 202346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202345=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-210145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska and north-central into northeast
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 202345Z - 210145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue this evening across eastern
Nebraska. These storms will pose the potential for gusty
strong-to-severe winds and hail. The area is being monitored for a
possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of elevated thunderstorms continue to develop
this afternoon across portions of eastern Nebraska as southwesterly
moist warm-air advection in the 850-700 millibar layer continues
into the region. Strongly veering-with-height wind profiles have
resulted in effective-layer shear around 50 knots across the region,
which has yielded thunderstorm organization, with overall storm
motion to the southeast given the northwesterly mid-to-upper-level
flow.

Thermodynamically, the continued convection across eastern Nebraska
is reinforcing a northwest-to-southeast surface boundary, which is
effectively serving as a instability gradient. To the southwest of
this boundary, MUCAPE between 2500-3000 J/kg exists, with MUCAPE
quickly dropping off to less than 500 J/kg to the northeast.=20

Two main areas to monitor have emerged over the past hour. The first
is across southeast Nebraska where an elevated supercell has
produced hail around 1" per a local storm report from WFO Omaha.
This storm should continue to move east-southeast toward the greater
Kansas City Metro.=20

A secondary area is to the northwest, where several thunderstorms
have organized into an elevated linear MCS that has produced reports
of 60-70 mph wind gusts. This MCS will continue to track southeast.

The region will be monitored for signs that the severe potential is
evolving from largely independent, isolated occurrences to a more
organized, sustained threat. If this evolution occurs, a watch may
be necessary.

..Marsh/Smith.. 06/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7H7W0raSw9_Ci3F28SmFvTsGNOueH_T0tCkrdx0VGd3catCGoclTAzdqPgH8p96ZyaRjod1rp= c8ADo-wn_MfLmc_fc4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 40899948 42039861 40089475 39299487 39329604 40899948=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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