ACUS11 KWNS 210009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210008=20
KSZ000-210045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of western Kansas

Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 357...358...

Valid 210008Z - 210045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 357, 358 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe wind swath is beginning, with up to 100 mph gusts
likely over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Merging supercells have recently formed into a
cold-pool-driven MCS. In the last 30 minutes, multiple measured
gusts over 90 mph and appreciable damage have been reported in the
Colby, KS vicinity. Some bowing tendencies have been noted with this
MCS, with KDDC radar inbound velocity data showing the onset of a
rear-inflow jet developing with the aid of remnant supercell
mesocyclones, which may be transitioning to effective book-end
vorticies. This convective morphology is unfolding within a highly
favorable mesoscale setup, with the MCS bow echo structure roughly
traversing a retreating baroclinic boundary, amid 2500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 60+ kts of effective bulk shear perpendicular to the MCS
leading line. Several 75+ mph gusts are expected, with some
potentially reaching 100 mph over the next couple of hours.

..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6RW83hCnM5xYnLUEJn2jHFsigcD06fYTCU08kU7KdAA2Z0eW_eOffbRzpIUwgTcrkbFY_fUhY= MVaUdX13vy2cYVI6vk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39360079 39240037 38930020 38450016 38330018 38270053
38300105 38370136 38530139 39010133 39260116 39300104
39360079=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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