ACUS11 KWNS 210130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210129=20
KSZ000-COZ000-210300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of western into central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...359...

Valid 210129Z - 210300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358, 359
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts exceeding 75 mph will remain a concern
over the next few hours with a south-southeastward progressing MCS.

DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate to the east-southeast across western KS, with a history of 60-100 mph wind
gusts. The DDC 00Z observed sounding, which is well ahead of the
MCS, depicts an elongated hodograph and over 50 kts of effective
bulk shear, which should aid ongoing storms to sustain a bowing MCS
structure. However, while the 00Z observed sounding shows 8.5+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates preceding the MCS, a relatively
neutral/slightly stable 850-700 mb layer may eventually encourage a
weakening trend in the next few hours given nocturnal cooling. This
trend is also suggested by the latest HRRR deterministic and WoFs
ensemble runs. Until then though, severe gusts (a few potentially
exceeding 75 mph) remain possible through at least 04Z.

..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8l5KCnd51BfHNShcXud4E1Wv__N_UNsPwfkOqC2nwDJJVeICA3mOwDPCVxGU8rNqD7jbnJifY= 0bgqdz2ugCzH3Mm2RI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 38310205 38900009 39259896 39229818 38929748 38629729
38239752 37949826 37699918 37630004 37650065 37780181
38310205=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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