ACUS11 KWNS 211028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211027=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...

Valid 211027Z - 211130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging wind gusts will be
possible over the next couple of hours from southeast Kansas into
northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. The threat should be too
isolated for additional weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing from Kansas into far western
Missouri, on the northern side of an unstable airmass. The MCS is
being supported by strong warm advection and large-scale ascent
associated with a shortwave trough moving through the region. The
strongest part of the MCS is in southeast Kansas, where the RAP
estimates that MUCAPE is near 2000 J/kg and effective shear is
around 40 knots. This will be sufficient for an isolated severe
threat early this morning. The potential for severe wind gusts
should be maximized along the leading edge of any short bowing line
segment that can remain organized and surface-based. The severe
threat should become more isolated as inhibition continues to
increase.

..Broyles.. 06/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5PdWAiw5cGiWmv1aAu3RKWoXW4LSzpakDPk9NRpW2xcnU32UOLFEY7DPfL9M-0LP-N3_08tn6= 3Pp5sdrjk89hA5NKUQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 38879460 38459482 38129515 37919567 37919631 37879698
37719741 37469766 36999774 36569728 36389648 36339545
36419476 36569417 36949363 37649330 38389326 38749340
38989382 38999421 38879460=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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