ACUS11 KWNS 212219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212219=20
KSZ000-212315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern into southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 212219Z - 212315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase downstream of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 364, over northern into southwestern KS in a few
hours. Severe gusts/hail are likely, and a tornado is also possible.
A Severe Thunderstorm watch will be needed soon to address the
impending threat.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells with a history of severe gusts/hail
continue to progress southeastward along a diffuse baroclinic zone,
where strong instability and vertical wind shear reside. Per 22Z
mesoanalysis, a plume of 8.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, atop upper
60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints, is supporting 2500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE across southwestern into central KS. Coinciding with this
strong buoyancy is 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms
that remain supercellular in this environment will remain capable of
producing severe hail, including stones reaching 2-3 inches in
diameter, and perhaps a tornado. However, with time, storms should
develop into smaller line segments, where severe gusts (perhaps one
or two exceeding 75 mph) will become the main threat. A Severe
Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8n4y2KAEOfDHJKET5Mh-vJlOHmts24-BxQBQKb501OG7lTQSNXPYM_p_fHtFa5XLWwF16krek= _0b65bmbFTD0-3L48Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37790194 39329995 39959910 39969847 39719819 39329820
38699833 38179858 37779895 37479957 37310030 37240090
37290180 37790194=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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