ACUS11 KWNS 212356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212355=20
NEZ000-220130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364...

Valid 212355Z - 220130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364
continues.

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail and perhaps a severe gust
remain possible with the stronger storms over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown an uptick in
convective intensity with multicells across western NE over the past
1-2 hours. These storms are approaching an airmass characterized by
1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50 kts of effective bulk shear, which will
continue to support a severe hail threat. A severe gust is also
possible given the 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates in place (per 23Z mesoanalysis). Nonetheless, the ongoing storms are approaching an
area of increasing convective inhibition due to tropospheric
overturning caused by earlier storms. It is unclear how long-lived
the longer-term severe threat will be in NE given convective
overturning. However, in the near term, a few instances of severe
hail or a gust remain possible.

..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7HaMRfdIfZehBM1mLzoZkZnEQI03J-MvHu2tTT5FxwOPV1-SbJ8wEFbf_IHzqN8T5yKAbQ7qt= lfqBrQh1KdcCmwL0vc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...

LAT...LON 42410164 42470090 42160047 41390035 40850046 40480090
40480120 40610155 40950191 41220198 42410164=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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