ACUS11 KWNS 220019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220018=20
KSZ000-COZ000-220145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of extreme southeast Colorado into western
Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367...

Valid 220018Z - 220145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail remain likely with an ongoing line of
storms, particularly with embedded supercell structures. A tornado
remains possible, and an organized MCS wind swath could develop.

DISCUSSION...Supercell structures have gradually merged into an MCS
over the past hour. Despite a linear appearance to the broader
region of storms, the MCS is flanked to the east by a dominant
supercell with a prevalent mesocyclone. A wet rear-flank downdraft
associated with this supercell appears to be merging with another
embedded cold pool surge to the southwest, which suggests that a
smaller scale but organized swath of severe (50+ kt) gusts may be
developing. Until then, the stronger storm cores with embedded
supercells may support severe hail, and a tornado remains possible
with any longer-lasting mesocyclone. The MCS is preceded by
3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear,
suggesting that the severe threat may last for several more hours.
If a prominent bow echo can develop, gusts over 75 mph will also be
possible.

..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8KkrYmCo30Xtei6zSV8JpU89jph9AZpIDt6d75EllR1d4_BJpQ3eYtSCeYG2OhDBw0TbVxiri= XcvEL5kRm5XdAf_Amk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 38030357 38000245 38330165 38910055 39049937 38739855
38149845 37569867 37259951 37190097 37160200 37330325
38030357=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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