ACUS11 KWNS 220103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220102=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

Valid 220102Z - 220200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new tornado watch likely will be needed across portions
of northern Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...A tornado threat is likely to develop later this
evening as a broken line of supercells moves into the region. These
supercells have a history of confirmed tornadoes. The overall
environment across northern Kentucky is marginally to moderately
unstable, with MUCAPE ranging from just under 1000 J/kg to around
1500 J/kg. Continued low-level theta-e advection to the southeast of
a MCV across central Indiana should sustain or slightly increase
instability despite the loss of diurnal heating.

Additionally, a favorable kinematic environment (Louisville VAD
showing 0-3 kilometer SRH increasing the last hour to nearly 500
m2/s2) will remain into the late evening hours. Thus, as the
upstream supercells move into the region, the threat for tornadoes
will persist. A new tornado watch will likely be needed within the
hour.

..Marsh/Smith.. 06/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8TKEBWfEQoQR8yORTRPJwsZiffrPukfBxJMbCvdTyveXtFR0zILkx5Q33Kltf_ZY9JaCsvI7h= TxOuZ4SxRbhKVkHXyQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 37758677 38368578 38788501 38808406 38688366 38418375
38098424 37748522 37588596 37558670 37568685 37758677=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)