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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1247

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 22 04:36:17 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 220436
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220436=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1247
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366...

    Valid 220436Z - 220600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across the region have remained
    below severe limits this evening and are not likely to intensify
    further. As such, portions or all of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #366
    can be canceled early.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of
    south-central Missouri this evening. Despite what appears to be a
    favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment (MUCAPE between
    2000-3000 J/kg and effective-layer shear on the order of 40 knots,
    these thunderstorms have struggled to intensify this evening. This
    may be a subtle consequence of the ongoing MCV-aided convection
    farther east.=20

    With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of a focused low-level
    or large-scale forcing mechanism, the expectation is for ongoing
    thunderstorms to remain below severe limits. As such portions, or
    perhaps all, of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #366 can be canceled
    before expiration at 06Z/01 AM CDT.

    ..Marsh.. 06/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7lXomtaNkwSb_5Y2a2RYNCUZlbRaZdOcXgZ3PGxn_1cdLeyaOHvleFrddwYd41Wag94c8qD_C= qE6QGG6XAph0Euv4YE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 37219494 37609280 37519087 36928957 36388980 35979111
    35999251 36149388 36589485 36859504 37219494=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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