ACUS11 KWNS 221601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221601=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-221800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern and central MS/AL into
southern Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 221601Z - 221800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase across portions of northern
and central Mississippi and Alabama into southern Middle Tennessee
into early afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard,
but a tornado or two also may occur. A watch will likely be needed
by early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Airmass destabilization is occurring downstream from an
MCV over eastern AR at midday. This MCV should continue moving
eastward along a surface boundary sagging across western TN.
Thunderstorms are ongoing along outflow from an overnight MCS near
the MS River into northern LA. These storms are expected to
gradually increase in intensity across MS over the next couple of
hours. Filtered heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the
80s amid a very moist boundary layer characterized by mid-70s
dewpoints. While midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, MLCAPE
should climb to around 1500-2500 J/kg through afternoon. The MCV
will also provide enhanced westerly flow in conjunction with a 25-30
kt southwesterly 850 mb low-level jet overspreading the TN Valley
vicinity. This will support organized clusters, and perhaps some
upscale development into a bowing segment across portions of the MCD
area.=20

Interestingly, RAP forecast soundings indicate some drier air above
850 mb amid PW values near 2 inches. This moisture profile amid
moderate to strong instability and modestly enhanced
west/southwesterly flow suggests damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazard with convection through the afternoon. However, some
enhancement of low-level SRH may accompany areas near the core of
the MCV. As such, a tornado or two also could occur. A watch will
likely be needed at some point early this afternoon, but timing
remains a bit uncertain.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7S7BuYydfidI3p2215MYY7rsnQE-0FL_GvNpSLHDelVWR3ocW22reJ_1ecWkApXYiEtMRBVW2= lSzoTGfYm26GlWeIpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32758789 32658860 32708963 32839036 32989062 33259064
33619035 34058996 34658923 34928844 35358682 35358631
35238604 34798586 34238589 33788591 33478612 33158676
32758789=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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