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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1251

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 22 14:08:47 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 221407
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221406=20
    MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-221530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1251
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0906 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

    Areas affected...portions of eastern AR...northwest MS...northern
    LA...and northeast TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373...

    Valid 221406Z - 221530Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Mainly sub-severe winds may persist with decaying MCS
    moving across the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley through the
    morning hours. Overall severe potential is expected to remain low,
    and a downstream watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Convection along the leading edge of a decaying MCS
    across southeast AR into northern LA/northeast TX has diminished in
    intensity over the past hour. A 37 kt measured gust was noted at
    KPBF/Pine Bluff AR in the past 30-40 minutes, and measured severe
    gusts have not be noted for 1-2 hours. As the convection continues
    to percolate east/southeast the next few hours, gusty winds of this
    caliber may occur. However, overall decreasing organization and
    intensity of the weakening MCS is expected to continue and severe
    potential will be limited. As the associated MCV over eastern AR
    tracks eastward along a southward sagging surface boundary, some
    severe potential could increase later this afternoon across parts of
    MS, but severe potential should remain low the next few hours. As
    such, a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is not expected at this
    time.

    ..Leitman.. 06/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5X6Pwk4hyRwY-nwYoRVhWB2wQPsiolCvNSr-as14ZSERWCKj8UwBUEkorFTc_ERaG8IpnvGGF= jnDSVTCM5lefUjTEYI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 35019136 34978968 34078976 33349019 32739093 32449164
    32069313 32069450 32609535 33079551 33459458 33809271
    34639182 34919164 35019136=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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