ACUS11 KWNS 221841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221840=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-222045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...East-central to southeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 221840Z - 222045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely along the Front
Range from central to southern Colorado in the next 1-2 hours. Watch
issuance is likely as storms develop and spread east/southeast.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery depicts growing cumulus from the
Denver area southward along the Front Range and into the Raton Mesa
within a weak upslope flow regime. This comes as temperatures begin
to warm into the low to mid 80s, which latest CAM guidance suggests
is required to erode mixed-layer inhibition and support convective
initiation. Based on these satellite and temperature trends, deep
convective initiation appears probable within the next 1-2 hours.

Initially high-based convection will quickly spread east/southeast
given the 30-40 knot west/northwest flow regime aloft. Steady
intensification with eastward extent is expected as storms migrate
into the axis of rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s
to low 60s) in place along the eastern Plains. Additionally,
elongated hodographs featuring 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear
analyzed in recent mesoanalyses/forecast soundings (and confirmed by
regional VWPs) will promote splitting supercells capable of large to
very large hail (possibly as high as 2-3 inches) as well as strong
outflow winds. Watch issuance will be needed this afternoon as
initiation becomes more imminent and storms begin to mature.

..Moore/Hart.. 06/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4DSPqU4-JSwCYtgbNnIycWX2_QKv48WQYn0l8T-W0B0m1ExD6GHCGIS4Vr5LYkN5STNrLQtGm= emAKi3HTw5wH5SZAHA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36970280 37000336 37190395 37440450 37650481 37900503
38230522 38670542 39010540 39270522 39400488 39420443
39420397 39310341 39230321 38930273 38590235 38220211
37820201 37390201 37190207 37070217 36970280=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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