ACUS11 KWNS 222221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222221=20
COZ000-NEZ000-230015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 377...

Valid 222221Z - 230015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 377
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions
of eastern Colorado. The background environment will support
thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has developed this afternoon across
portions of Colorado. The most prominent of the Colorado initiated
storms is located near Colorado Springs, CO, where a recent hail
report of 1.5" aligns with the multi-radar, multi-sensor (MRMS)
estimate of around 2". Another storm cluster, which developed across
the High Plains of Wyoming, is moving into northeast Colorado (and
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #377). This storm also has a history of
producing 1.5-1.75" diameter hail, aligning with the MRMS estimates
of approximately 2".

Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper-80Fs (north) to 90Fs
(south), which have resulted in steep low-to-mid-level lapse rates.
Surface dewpoints range from the low-to-mid-50Fs abutting the higher
terrain to low 60Fs in portions of the Colorado plains, contributing
to around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Southeast low-level winds and
westerly mid-level flow to the north of the mid-level ridge across
the area yields around 40-50 knots of effective-layer shear. The instability-shear combination should remain favorable for sustained
updrafts to become supercells. A long, relatively straight hodograph
would tend to favor splitting supercells, with the right-mover
moving generally south.

Although storms have remained relatively isolated this afternoon,
continued moist low-level upslope flow this afternoon will support
additional thunderstorm attempts. Large to very large hail will be
the primary hazard.

..Marsh.. 06/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!88xa_vy2OlmfBdipVRJ7J5Ao_pjk4z0-KWPoJiYHd_0z7x8BA85ZEhjPi5Ysl5WtHZDEBefIC= WGy3S3ygsDNj_ITdzE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 37020515 39400471 39840390 41180377 41170284 41160205
37000204 37020515=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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