ACUS11 KWNS 222249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222249=20
TXZ000-222345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222249Z - 222345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Quickly developing thunderstorms will slowly drift north
toward Odessa this afternoon. Large hail and perhaps gusty outflows
will be the main hazards. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Explosive thunderstorm development has occurred to the
south of Odessa, TX, this afternoon. The overall environment is very
unstable, with MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg, but resides to the south of
the better effective-layer shear. As such, thunderstorms are
evolving toward multi-cellular clusters, with their collective
outflows causing the cells to drift north toward Odessa. Large hail
will be possible with the strongest cores.

Additionally, temperature-dewpoint spreads are on the order of
30-40F this afternoon, with surface temperatures around 100F and
surface dewpoints in the 60Fs. Forecast soundings indicate steep low-to-mid-level lapse rates, which may support some wind potential
with any collapsing thunderstorm core.=20

The expectation is that this cluster of storms should not
appreciably grow upscale, thus leaving any severe potential too
limited in space-and-time to need a watch.

..Marsh/Smith.. 06/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_n5cri8t6u-NM6aWPGRSR1Ogai7xferx9lvPqXoEZ1fVNV_osXEzDppcWkcCUF_fqGNTkvoFI= WWCAnNDDD4pc_gE5kA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31010273 31720275 32250268 32490207 32200167 31620165
31030172 30770230 31010273=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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