ACUS11 KWNS 231511
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231510=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-231645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina/Virginia into
southern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 231510Z - 231645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase through midday.
Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely
be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Clear skies and strong heating across eastern NC into
southeast VA has allowed temperatures to rapidly rise into the 80s
to near 90 F across the region late this morning. A very moist
airmass with mid 70s dewpoints in in place, resulting in modest
destabilization ahead of a surface cold front, and a growing cumulus
field is already evident. Regional VWP data from RAX and LWX
indicate around 30-40 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow spreading east
across the area in tandem with a shortwave impulse. This is
resulting in 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes over the region
(stronger with northward extent). Convection is already developing
over the higher terrain of central NC/VA. The expectation is for
this activity to gradually increase in intensity and organization as
it spreads east into the Piedmont and coastal vicinity. Steep
low-level lapse rates within the moist environment will support
damaging gusts.=20

There is also some indication of a remnant MCV from overnight
convection moving across central NC. Given the very moist boundary
layer and any enhancement to low-level shear this feature may pose,
a tornado or two also could occur, though confidence in this
scenario is low. Northward extent of greater severe risk is a bit
uncertain. Cloudiness persists across MD/DE/southern NJ, and
low-level flow is already veered. A strong storm or two could occur
in these areas, especially given stronger flow, but storms may
develop very near the coast in these areas and quickly move
offshore.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8b0SNYtPR8LDeVvWTPmlzBdo4WkLNoZ2FYj1-XlU8JjyAZIdfw0fthEtX3jQ_I2eVN9NK6WFw= JLBsxOJIRs504xmfU4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 34337694 34457766 34857858 35157902 35607919 36027908
36347891 36827847 37277797 38027677 38217635 38337593
38337547 38277517 38137503 37657500 37017507 35747510
35047538 34487620 34377669 34337694=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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