ACUS11 KWNS 231906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231906=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-232100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 231906Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Conditions are being monitored for convective initiation
along an outflow boundary across the Texas Panhandle. If/when
thunderstorms develop, they will mature within a favorable
environment for supercells capable of large/very large hail, severe
wind, and perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES day cloud phase imagery shows steady
vertical growth of cumulus along an outflow boundary migrating
west/southwest across the TX Panhandle. A recent 18 UTC RAOB from
Amarillo, TX (just ahead of the boundary) sampled a highly buoyant
environment (MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg) with adequate deep-layer wind
shear (around 37 knots of effective bulk shear) for supercells.
Nearly 300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH sampled by the sounding also strongly
suggests supercells will be favored, especially given the relatively
weak ascent and some residual capping in the vicinity of the
boundary. Consequently, large hail (possibly up to 2.5 inches)
appears possible along with severe gusts. With temperatures
recovering into the upper 70s on the cool side of the boundary,
convection may be able to utilize the slightly stronger 0-1 km SRH
along/north of the boundary, which could support some tornado
threat.=20

The primary uncertainty is precisely when mature convection will
emerge along the boundary. Continued westward progression of the
boundary has recently displaced incipient updrafts away from the
zone of ascent, suggesting further stalling of the boundary may be
required before sustained thunderstorm development occurs.
Nonetheless, recent high-res guidance has consistently shown
convection developing along this boundary during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Watch issuance will likely be needed
once sustained deep convection becomes apparent.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_xadng9UKVEXryDGGhjqnBGptk_6EznkQ4QqTvaE6ruqUjIUKV4T1U_v9c-WzG0ZnpHqKIgro= WQQ3dgjFHroZ40kccg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34020137 34430203 35120270 35370282 35910298 36360291
36520271 36530238 36430213 36130171 35790126 35410087
35100069 34740060 34410062 34170078 34030099 34020137=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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