ACUS11 KWNS 232156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232156=20
COZ000-WYZ000-232300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232156Z - 232300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe gusts or hail may accompany the
stronger storms over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and NLDN lightning data
depict thunderstorms increasing in both coverage and intensity
across portions of the Great Divide Basin. In this area, a deep and
dry boundary layer is in place, as evidenced by 50 F T/Td spreads.
21Z mesoanalysis depicts ample evaporative cooling potential (e.g.
1500+ J/kg DCAPE) amid modest flow aloft, contributing to 30+ kts of
effective bulk shear. High-based multicells and transient supercells
will be the main modes of convection, with severe gusts possible. An
instance or two of severe hail could also occur with the strongest
storm cores. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain relatively
isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5scMRm1DYSwdqJX2lhlW__LGSHN3yMCAaw09k8Dl_QwLWm54zHHAPLPBBOA6jHJj8vg5JxpK9= h4vdPsynnh8WzoSvwo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...

LAT...LON 42760886 42690676 42340601 41780568 41200572 40950619
40950716 41070801 41390865 42760886=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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