ACUS11 KWNS 232158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232158=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Red River Valley into north-central
and northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 232158Z - 232330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for primarily damaging wind gusts will continue
into portions of north-central and northeast Texas this evening. A
new Severe Thunderstorm Watch and/or local watch extensions may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Two persistent convective clusters remain ongoing along
and south of the Red River Valley as of 2155 UTC. Modest synoptic
support associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation/MCV may
support continued maintenance of these clusters as they encounter
greater buoyancy (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) south of the Red River. This
may promote some intensification of ongoing thunderstorms in the
near-term across portions of north-central and northeast Texas. A
new Severe Thunderstorm Watch and/or local watch extensions may be
needed shortly to cover this potential.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4zq_UVVITNXvekLSj6rkMcFL3IlJSRlp6E6BnQPJwK45VqFdy8LG_6t9XtvJfV0-nX58Q9pGz= 1DQ0LqPLakAiXtmVcY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33539857 33739778 34129659 34269615 34229559 34059474
33759411 33419395 32979415 32649467 32499590 32519686
32599765 32799833 33069863 33279868 33539857=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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